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Welcome to this week’s Tigers Basketball Insider. Below you’ll find the latest news and analysis from The Daily Memphian’s Parth Upadhyaya.
It’s never too soon to look toward March, right?
If you’re one of those people who roll their eyes when they see NCAA Tournament bracketology projections this early in the college basketball season, I get it. We’re only three weeks into games and still a little more than a month away from the start of conference play.
But even as we sit 110 days away from Selection Sunday (March 17, 2024), it couldn’t hurt to start to monitor what the ‘experts’ think of your team.
With that being said, let’s look at the NCAA Tournament resume the Memphis Tigers (5-1) are constructing.
Six games into the season, the Tigers are No. 38 in KenPom and have wins over Arkansas (No. 49), Michigan (No. 54) and Missouri (No. 91). They’re 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Several of the most commonly referenced NCAA Tournament bracketology projections haven’t been updated after Thanksgiving Week — aka Feast Week — ended. But Joe Lunardi’s ESPN projections, Dave Ommen’s Bracketville projections and Bart Torvik’s computer-based projections were updated as recently as Tuesday morning.
Lunardi and Ommen view Memphis’ body of work through a similar lens, while Torvik isn’t as high on the Tigers.
Days after Memphis’ lopsided loss to Villanova (No. 14 in KenPom) in Friday’s Battle 4 Atlantis title game, Lunardi has coach Penny Hardaway’s squad slated to be a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Region. The Tigers would take on No. 10 seed Kansas State in the first round before potentially facing in-state rival No. 2 seed Tennessee in the Round of 32.
Ommen forecasts Memphis as a No. 6 seed in the East Region — where it would match up with No. 11 seed Nevada in the first round before potentially meeting No. 3 seed Baylor in the Round of 32.
Torvik, on the other hand, has Memphis listed among the “last four byes,” along with Utah, Texas Tech and Providence.
Torvik projects the Tigers to be a No. 10 seed. That’s even a step down from last season, when the group clinched a No. 8 seed in the Big Dance.
Memphis’ wins against Arkansas, Michigan and Mizzou don’t have the same shine that many expected them to have at the start of the season. None of the three opponents were ranked in the most recent version of the AP Top 25 poll.
That could change, though.
The Razorbacks, who have as much talent as almost anyone in the country, could soon find their footing and make some noise in a stacked SEC. The Wolverines could begin to gel again when coach Juwan Howard fully returns from his health-related absence and turn out to be a Big Ten sleeper. The Tigers of the SEC could catch fire and be in a position to return to the NCAA Tournament in coach Dennis Gates’ second year at the helm.
Memphis also will have opportunities in December against three top-50 KenPom teams: Texas A&M (No. 18), Virginia (No. 42) and Clemson (No. 48).
There’s plenty of room for movement over the next three-and-a-half months.
How the perception of the Tigers in the eyes of humans and in the analytics databases of computers shifts over the next several weeks will be something worth monitoring.
Regardless of how things shake out, Hardaway and his players will continue to go through their season with the realization that a favorable position in the NCAA Tournament won’t come easy.
That’s why November’s as good a time as any to begin surveying the road to their ultimate goal.
“We’ve gotta do so much to get just very little,” Hardaway said after the Tigers’ win over Arkansas last week. “And that’s the motivation for us.
“We do want a good seed. If we earn that, then we do want that. I don’t know if we’ll get that. Because they’re used to seeding us around (No.) 8, 9, 10. We know it’s a long season, but these wins are big wins early — and they usually reward teams for that.”
More from your Insider:
Despite going 2-1 in last week’s Battle 4 Atlantis, the Tigers are still unranked.
Did Parth Upadhyaya rank the Tigers after wins over Michigan and Arkansas but a lopsided loss to Villanova?
“Even though the last day of the trip to Nassau was a real bummer, this week was a net success for Penny Hardaway and his program.”
Victories this week against Michigan and No. 20 Arkansas could vault Memphis into the Associated Press basketball poll. If, that is, voters can overlook an ugly loss to Villanova.
“We needed something like this,” said Memphis guard Jahvon Quinerly, who called the Tigers’ 16-point loss in the Battle 4 Atlantis final a wake-up call.
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