NBA Preview: Notes and record predictions for all 30 teams
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates during overtime of Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers in Oakland, Calif., on May 31, 2018. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
There are different levels of NBA fandom. Some care about their team and some care about the entire league. There’s no right or wrong way to be a fan, but the following NBA-wide deep dive is for the latter kind.
Competitively, of course, it’s a zero-sum game. Teams, including your team, are only good or bad relative to their competition. Here’s how I see that shaping up for 2018-2019. One paragraph and a predicted record for all 30 NBA teams.
30. Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young and John Collins could form an occasionally dynamic pick-and-roll combo, with the rest of the likely starters (wings Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince, center Dewayne Dedmon) offering a potential foundation for defensive competence. In a bad conference, they could surprise a little, but … Young will likely be famine more often than feast, and the Hawks will be willing to take the lumps. They’ll have three rookies in the rotation, a first-time head coach in former Grizzlies assistant Lloyd Pierce, Bazemore likely on the trade market, and their long-term strategy focused on next summer’s draft. Predicted Record: 20-62
29. New York Knicks
Big-swing draft picks Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson both looked good in the summer and should get plenty of opportunity in New York. But franchise foundation Kristaps Porzingis is out until around mid-season with a torn ACL and in-doubt beyond that given his combination of injury history and 7-foot-3 size. Last year’s lottery pick point guard (Frank Ntilikina) looks more like a role-playing wing. And unless Knox is great out of the gate (he won’t be), this team’s hope for shot-generation comes from perhaps the least compelling group of guards in the NBA. Trey Burke and Emmanuel Mudiay are your point guards in the 2018 NBA? Good luck with that. Hey, at least they’ll have new coach David Fizdale making grandiose comparisons to pass the time. Predicted Record: 22-60
28. Sacramento Kings
The current version of the Kings’ never-ending rebuild would require point guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Marvin Bagley III to evolve into All-Star cornerstones. With Fox’s shaky shooting and Bagley’s stuck-between-stations defense, neither looks like a sure thing given the demands of their respective positions in an evolving NBA. Beyond that: Are we sure that any of these young players are actually any good? Wings Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic could probably play for anybody, but with pretty firm ceilings. The frontcourt is so crowded with theoretical prospects that we could witness Zach Randolph out of the rotation on the West’s worst team. The sideline commander of these West Memphis Kings, Dave Joerger, isn’t at fault here, but you wonder how much longer he can last. This is not the kind of “in the mud” Z-Bo and Joerger prefer. Insult to injury: The Kings will have among the best lottery odds next summer but will not have their pick. Instead, the Celtics and Sixers will enjoy the lottery night intrigue of finding out who gets to feast on the remains of a longest-in-the-league playoff drought certain to rise from 12 years to 13. Predicted Record: 23-59
27. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls seem to have hit on back-to-back mid-lottery picks. Second-year forward Lauri Markkanen is a meaningful shotmaker who can hold his own on the boards. And after a blockbuster summer, do-it-all rookie Wendell Carter Jr. promises even more, a potential defensive anchor who can shoot it and pass it. With holdovers Bobby Portis and Robin Lopez behind them, there’s good talent up front. But Markkanen is likely to miss the first month of the season or more with an elbow injury. And, unfortunately, this is now a perimeter-based league, and the Bulls overspent on scoring averages and name-value in bringing back Zach Lavine and bringing in Jabari Parker, who may be the worst defensive wing pairing in the NBA this season. Point guard Kris Dunn can cover for them a little, but barring a massive year-three improvement, he’ll be one of the league’s least threatening starting lead guards. Predicted Record: 26-56
26. Orlando Magic
It’s year two of a new rebuild from a new front office, this time with a new coach in former Hornets helmer Steve Clifford. The best players here at the moment are wing Evan Fournier, a nice third option on a better team, and re-signed forward dunk sensation Aaron Gordon. But the rebuild is predicated on the combined length of forward Jonathan Isaac (limited to around 500 minutes as a rookie) and don’t-adjust-your-screen-his-arms-really-are-that-long center Mo Bamba. Can Gordon play with both? Does Fournier make sense on their timetable? With one of the NBA’s weakest guard rotations, the Magic are going to be bad offensively. But if they could jump into the upper half of NBA defenses (20th last season), they might have a chance to stick around in an Eastern Conference playoff race likely to have a pretty low barrier to entry. More likely, though, is that this is a year of sorting in Orlando, and an extension of what’s currently the Eastern Conference’s longest playoff drought at six years and counting. Predicted Record: 27-55
25. Phoenix Suns
There’s a lot of intrigue here, even more after an oddly timed preseason front office shake-up. Devin Booker has proven to be one of the league’s most dynamic young perimeter scorers. I firmly believe top incoming rookie Deandre Ayton -- a force in preseason -- can be one of the NBA’s most prolific interior scorers. They’ve surrounded that offensive foundation with a trio of multi-positional defenders in Trevor Ariza, Josh Jackson, and rookie Mykal Bridges. But Booker seems likely to miss the start of the season after summer hand surgery and there’s no real point guard here to get Ayton the ball in the right spots. The Suns have a rookie head coach (Igor Kokoskov), and a frontcourt combination (Ayton and Rockets import Ryan Anderson) that could be pretty flammable on the defensive end. Predicted Record: 28-54
24. Cleveland Cavaliers
So, the bad news is that LeBron James hitched a ride West. The good (?) news is that the Cavs were 29th in team defense last season even with James and that probably couldn’t get much worse. A lot of the left behind have something to prove: Can Kevin Love be an offensive alpha dog again? Can Tyronn Lue establish his coaching mettle in LeBron’s absence the way Erik Spoelstra did in Miami? Can Rodney Hood earn a big contract after coming back on his one-year qualifying offer? And rookie lead guard Collin Sexton lives with a chip on his shoulder. Can his game play in the NBA? The guess here is at least a short-term “no” as a rookie point guard with a shaky shot and one year of post-high-school ball under his belt. Predicted Record: 30-52
23. Dallas Mavericks
The belated arrival of longtime target and now post-prime center DeAndre Jordan signals a strong faith in point guard Dennis Smith Jr. making a second-year leap and rookie Luka Doncic an instant impact … or maybe it’s just a general lack of patience as Dirk Nowitzki enters his age 40 season. Doncic & Dirk crossing paths in Dallas is potentially one of the more pleasurable subplots of the season, but the Mavs will get really interesting in a potential primary lineup that Nowitzki will watch from the bench: Smith on the ball, Jordan in the middle, sharpshooter Wes Matthews spacing the floor, and Doncic and Harrison Barnes (currently hamstrung by a hamstring) playing interchangeably at forward. There’s potential here, but pitiful depth and the youth of their primary playmakers will be too much to overcome. Predicted Record: 34-48
22. Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn seems ready to make a little (ok, very little) noise in the season where they will finally have full access to their draft pick, so the incentives are a little opaque here. Without reason to tank last season, they jumped from 20 to 28 wins and could take a similar step forward this season if they commit to it. There’s not much starpower here (D’Angelo Russell? Jarrett Allen?), but they have good depth, 3-point shooting, and a well-regarded head coach. They have a chance to be feisty, but could really use a high lottery pick to add some oomph to this rebuild. Predicted Record: 34-48
21. Detroit Pistons
How good of a coach is Dwane Casey? After winning Coach of the Year and being shown the door in Toronto, he’ll have a chance to goose the Pistons out of their high-thirtysomething-wins/just-miss-the-playoffs rut. With Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond up front, the Pistons are a power team, but not exactly Bad Boys III in terms of toughness. Perhaps a full season of Griffin and lead guard Reggie Jackson (they combined to play 70 games for the Pistons last season) can push a 19th-ranked offense into the league’s upper half. On the wing, the Pistons have a lot of options but zero obvious answers. If Casey can craft a workable rotation from those half-formed pieces, the Pistons could be better. But they had higher hopes when they brought in Griffin and Casey. Predicted Record: 36-46
20. Los Angeles Clippers
There’s no-one left from the Clippers squads the Grizzlies did playoff battle against. Well, except for Doc Rivers. It’s a veteran coach with a mostly all-new team. The Clippers won 42 games last season amid a massive in-season shuffle, but I can’t see them repeating as a Top 10 offense. There’s a core of short-term vets (Patrick Beverly, Avery Bradley, Marcin Gortat, Danilo Gallinari) that could pair with cornerstones Lou Williams and Tobias Harris to keep the Clips competitive, if they can stay healthy (doubtful). But this feels like a transitional season, and the team should probably focus more on giving opportunity to multi-year prospects such as rookie point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rising center Montrezl Harrell, both of whom could (should) be starting by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 36-46
19. Memphis Grizzlies
With Chandler Parsons showing signs of health, MarShon Brooks showing signs that his spring cameo may not have been a fluke, Jaren Jackson Jr. looking like a first-year factor, and Mike Conley zipping around the floor like normal, the annual process of talking myself into the home team hasn’t been that hard. But it can also only get you so far with two north-of-thirty cornerstones and a conference where a 20-win improvement from last season's 22 likely gets you bupkis. Even 25 games better will be no guarantee. We’ll go into more detail next week, but the biggest factor isn’t just how well Conley and Marc Gasol will play, but even more so how much? Over the past five seasons, the Grizzlies have averaged 33 games a season without both players on the floor. They need to cut that number in half this season to have even a wisp of a chance. Predicted Record: 38-44
18. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a mess awaiting resolution, and that resolution (a trade of flamboyantly disgruntled veteran star Jimmy Butler) should hopefully signal a clear choice in direction. As tempting as it is to go all-in on securing a back-to-back playoff invitation after only now emerging from a decade in the (north) woods, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are 22 and 23, respectively, and their competitive arcs should guide the team. Maybe Wiggins will never be much more than he is, but Minnesota’s prevailing concern, above all, should be to get Towns back on the track to superstardom. This uncertain prediction may well undersell them, but the vibes are bad right now. Predicted Record: 38-44
17. Charlotte Hornets
That Kemba Walker is still around suggests the Hornets want to get back into the playoffs rather than commit to a rebuild, and LeBron James leaving Cleveland should make that easier to achieve. Still, the rest of the roster is a muddle. Is gunner Malik Monk a bust or due for a second-year breakthrough? Will rookie wing/forward Miles Bridges be a versatile, dynamic three-and-D(unk on your head) energy boost or a tweener whose handle and shot won’t translate? Downside: This could be the least threatening frontcourt in the league, and if they slip, Walker is one of the league’s prime trade candidates. Here's betting they can get into the post3season if they want it. Predicted Record: 38-44
16. Washington Wizards
They may have squandered their best shot at contention by their failure to build a better bench over the past few seasons. They are still talented and relatively young where it matters most, on the perimeter. But you get the sense that we may have already seen the best of point guard John Wall, and offseason additions Dwight Howard and Jeff Green don’t have a great recent track record on the chemistry/karma front. Predicted Record: 42-40
15. San Antonio Spurs
On paper, this team should be even less than the sum of its shaky parts. It has two reigning second-team All-NBA players, one up front and one of the perimeter. But I don’t think anybody really considers LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan Top 10 players. Together they made up two of the NBA’s three most prolific mid-range shooters last season. Can they thrive together in a seemingly optimal closing lineup that would feature exactly one (Patty Mills) decent three-point shooter? It seems like classic Spurs finds Bryn Forbes and Davis Bertans might need to play a bigger-than-expected role. The Spurs were the No. 4 defense last season despite getting only nine games from Kawhi Leonard, but lose not only Leonard but long, versatile, sound wing defenders Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and, to injury, rising point guard Dejounte Murray. Historically, though, the Spurs swing the other way. They are greater than the sum of their parts. This year will be Gregg Popovich’s greatest coaching challenge. You wonder how fiercely he wants to meet it given the extent of change he’s faced on and off the floor. Predicted Record: 42-40
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland was very quietly the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference last season, in large part because they were very quietly a Top 10 defense, and I’m not quite sure how either happened. I’ll be surprised to see either happen again. The Blazers bring back the NBA’s highest-scoring backcourt in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and a sharp coach in Terry Stotts, though a postseason sweep has the longevity of that trio in doubt. Part of the separation last season came from being less hit by serious injuries than the Thunder, Nuggets, Pelicans, and certainly the Grizzlies. Over the summer, with tax concerns bearing down, the back half of the roster got younger and less certain, which adds to the sense of increasing fragility. Predicted Record: 43-39
13. Oklahoma City Thunder
With Carmelo Anthony’s exit a de facto addition and Dennis Schroeder giving the Thunder a scoring boost off the bench, the Thunder should be better this season. But ... Russell Westbrook had knee surgery on the eve of training camp, probably won’t be ready to start the season, and no elite point guard is more dependent on athleticism. Defensive ace Andre Roberson suffered a serious setback from his own summer injury rehab. With a healthy Roberson, this could have been the league's best defensive team. Paul George-Jerami Grant-Steven Adams is still a great foundation, and Westbrook will be back. A little leap forward is still possible, but it's starting to feel a little wobbly. Predicted Record: 44-38
12. Miami Heat
Mostly the same roster returns -- for now -- from a young but not that young team that rode an above-average defense and below-average offense to a pretty average season. With a top four seed in the East seemingly there for the taking, Miami might be the NBA team most in need of a 3-for-1 deal (cough, Jimmy Butler, cough) to clarify their too-deep rotation and lift their ceiling. As is, it’s hard to see lead guard Goran Dragic as an alpha dog on a team that’s going to go anywhere beyond 45 regular season wins. Predicted Record: 44-38
11. Los Angeles Lakers
This is LeBron James’ age 34 season, and we have to entertain that it could be the final one he begins as the world’s best basketball player (steps aside as lightning strikes). He’s going to spend it on the league’s fourth-youngest team? Are the Lakers letting the circus in town while patiently waiting for a second strike next summer, or is this season’s trade deadline a more likely time to pounce? This roster would be hard to project under any circumstances, but that question makes it moreso. On paper, there seem to be too many playmakers and not enough shooters. Defensively, James is primarily a post-season player and this Lakers team could actually decline from last season’s middle-of-the-pack finish. Brandon Ingram making the Leap in year three could change an awful lot. It may happen. Also, LeBron James is still the best basketball player in the world. Predicted Record: 45-37
10. Denver Nuggets
They were the best team to miss the playoffs last season and at five-and-counting their playoff drought is probably longer than it seems. If they don’t break through this season, it might force a shake-up. But an elite passer in the middle in Nikola Jokic and a deft-shooting, interchangeable backcourt in Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is a young, still-rising engine of what was an elite offense last season. As good as they were offensively, they were as bad defensively. A healthier season from power forward Paul Millsap is supposed to change that, but I’m not so sure Millsap hasn’t entered an accelerating decline. Isaiah Thomas off the bench and a shallower depth chart on the wings won’t help either. The bet here is they move up because the middle of the West gets squishier. Predicted Record: 46-36
9. Indiana Pacers
I believe in Victor Oladipo’s breakout and Myles Turner could be right behind him. Domantas Sabonis could emerge as one of the league’s great role players. Around Oladipo on the perimeter, they’ve got more options now, and the most talented among them is going to be Grizzly-for-a-minute Tyreke Evans. Was Evans for real last season? As an individual producer, I say yes. The bigger questions are whether he can continue to stay healthy and finally blend his talents into a team that can really win. I would have rather seen them use their cap space to go for a big strike instead of spreading it around, but a good team remained one. Predicted Record: 47-35
8. New Orleans Pelicans
They downgraded their backcourt (Elfrid Payton in, Rajon Rondo out) but upgraded the frontcourt (adding Julius Randle as third big to their returning playoff rotation) and still aren’t deep or talented enough on the wing. As the playoffs suggested, Anthony Davis-Jrue Holiday-Nikola Mirotic (all in the 26-28 age range this season) is a dynamic core that fits well together and is probably enough to overcome their top-to-bottom roster problems. That’s assuming they’re all on the court. This could be only the second 50-win squad in New Orleans since pro hoops returned to the city at the dawn of the current century. But Davis and Holiday each have an injury history, and both set new career highs in minutes played last season. There’s reason to worry if they can do it again. Predicted Record: 49-33
7. Milwaukee Bucks
In his age 24 season, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s steep upward trajectory may continue to bend but probably isn’t quite ready to flatten. He was already Top 10 (easy), maybe Top 5 in the game. He’ll be in the MVP mix and could alone carry his team into Eastern Conference contention this season. New head coach Mike Budenholzer should help. And despite being three deep at center, headlined by super-sized import Brook Lopez, the bet here is they play small alot, with Giannis often sharing a closing frontcourt with stretch forward Ersan Ilyasova. Still, Khris Middleton is a great third guy pushed into being a No. 2. Giannis might carry them above their station, but he’ll have to. Predicted Record: 50-32
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons (age 22) and Joel Embiid (24 until spring) are two of the NBA’s greatest young talents, and while time would appear to be on the Sixers’ side, there will always be health uncertainty for Embiid given his past and his size. If any young team should be thinking present rather than future, this is it. In that context, their quieter-than-expected offseason was a disappointment, with middling vet additions Wilson Chandler (currently injured) and Mike Muscala unlikely to provide the same boost middling vet departures Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli gave the team down the stretch last season. Instead, the boost needs to come from the summer of 2017’s top rookie pick, Markelle Fultz, one of this season’s biggest wild cards. The preseason returns haven't been encouraging. Predicted Record: 52-30
5. Houston Rockets
Their NBA-best record last season was perhaps as much a product of a defense that jumped from 18th to sixth as it was the product of pairing James Harden and Chris Paul for 48 minutes of Hall of Fame playmaking. How does that defense hold up now with top defenders Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and top defensive assistant Jeff Bzdelik out and defensively liability Carmelo Anthony in? The devastating offensive core of Harden, Paul, Eric Gordon, and dive-man supreme Clint Capela is back. But Paul, entering his age 33 season, has missed more than 40 regular season games over the past two seasons and came up limp late against the Warriors, which may have cost the Rockets a trip to the Finals. Still very good, but their peak may have been short-lived. Predicted Record: 57-25
4. Utah Jazz
With center Rudy Gobert back from injury and back in a flow, the Jazz closed 29-6 in their final 35 regular season games and then pushed into the second round of the playoffs. They’ve got an emerging star on the ball (Donovan Mitchell), the game’s best rim protector (Gobert), and a creative coach (Quin Snyder), surrounded by a deep cast of versatile, crafty role players. Most improvement will be internal: Can Mitchell make a second-year leap? Can Dante Exum (age 23) finally stay healthy and stay in the rotation? Last season, they were the NBA’s #2 defense and #15 offense. The bet here is that the latter rises more than the former falls, and that the result is the best Jazz team since Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer a decade ago, if not since Stockton-to-Malone. Predicted Record: 57-25
3. Toronto Raptors
Will they get the real Kawhi Leonard? The one we last saw in Memphis, who was as good as anyone in the world not named LeBron James? If so, not only do they have a higher-upside go-to-guy than last season, but can roll out a potentially devastating small-ball defensive lineup (Kyle Lowry-Danny Green-Leonard-OG Anunoby-Pascal Siakam). Or they can go with small backcourts (Lowry and Fred Van Vleet) or big frontcourts (incumbent starters Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas). They were top five on both ends of the court last season on the way to 59 wins. They could be better on both ends this season. The biggest questions, after Leonard: Can Lowry hold his value in his age 33 season? And, most of all, is first-time head coach Nick Nurse up to it? Predicted Record: 60-22
2. Boston Celtics
Brad Stevens will have a good problem in figuring out a pecking order, rotations, and especially closing lineups with so many great, versatile pieces at his disposal. Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford is the presumed final five. But Terry Rozier was a playoff hero. Marcus Smart is their best perimeter defender. And Marcus Morris and Aron Baynes can both stake a claim. This team is unlikely to be a middle-of-the-pack offense again. Boston has forever been in asset-collection mode, and are still sure to get mentioned in conjunction with any star on the market. But this season, anything short of a Finals appearance will be a disappointment. With Real Kawhi, the Raptors should be right there with them, but in the regular season, tie goes to the Celtics because they'll be less dependent on their best player. (So much so that it's not clear who even is their best player.) Predicted Record: 60-22
1. Golden State Warriors
Seeking a fifth straight Finals for the first time since Bill Russell’s Celtics (unless you consider LeBron James a franchise, and we probably should) and third straight title for the first time since the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, their greatest threats are within: Fatigue. Injury. Boredom. The “Disease of Me.” Maybe DeMarcus Cousins is the curveball that can keep things fresh. Will he be ok with watching during winning time? Because even if Boogie’s fully healthy, as long as Andre Iguodala is too, then the “death lineup” is probably still what carries them home. Predicted Record: 62-20
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Chris Herrington
Chris Herrington has covered the Memphis Grizzlies, in one way or another, since the franchise’s second season in Memphis, while also writing about music, movies, food and civic life. As far as he knows, he’s the only member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association who is also a member of a film critics group and has also voted in national music critic polls for Rolling Stone and the Village Voice (RIP). He and his wife have two kids and, for reasons that sometimes elude him, three dogs.
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