The trade deadline has passed and the All-Star break is here. The Memphis Grizzlies will regroup next week in playoff pole position. But before then, we pause to open the Mailbag, where questions were as plentiful as Brandon Clarke alley-oops. As Tony Allen would instruct us, leggo. 

@HerringtonNBA Is there another example of an NBA team making the playoffs with its two leading scorers under the age of 21? (I think Derrick Rose is the last 20-year-old star to make it, but 25 y/o Ben Gordon was the leading scorer on that team) Westbrook and KD were 21
— Jacob Threadgill (@JacoboLaSombra) February 13, 2020

I had not thought of this and my first reaction was that this would be unprecedented. And unless I’m missing something, it would be.

Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., both 20 years old, currently lead the Grizzlies in scoring at 17.6 and 17.1 points per game, respectively. And though Jackson has been slumping of late, they will almost certainly end the season as the team’s top two scorers. What’s left is to make the playoffs. 

Per Basketball-Reference, only 58 players in league history, including those currently doing it, have ever averaged more than 15 points per game at age 20 (or younger).

If there’s never been a playoff team whose top two scorers are this young, how many players have ever been the single leading scorer on a playoff team before age 21? The answer appears to be one … and he’s done it twice. Before that revelation, some notable near misses:

A rookie-season Shaquille O’Neal averaged 23.4 points to lead the 1992-1993 Orlando Magic, but his team just missed the playoffs. Rookie Derrick Rose just made it for the 2008-2009 Chicago Bulls, but, as Jacob notes, 25-year-old teammate Ben Gordon was the Bulls’ leading scorer.

Kobe Bryant averaged 15 and then 20 points in his first two seasons (the first as a teenager) with a playoff Lakers team, but in both seasons a mid-20s Shaq was the top scorer. 

Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury led the Timberwolves into the playoffs as mere Timberpups, but a mid-career Tom Gugliotta was actually the leading scorer. Rookie Chris Webber was the second-leading scorer on the 93-94 playoff Warriors, but behind 23-year-old Latrell Sprewell. 

Greatest of all, 20-year-old Magic Johnson averaged 18 points a game (and won Finals MVP) for the eventual champion 79-80 Lakers, but the leading scorer on the season was some 32-year-old named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

The only kid to lead a playoff team in scoring? Carmelo Anthony, he of the 1-15 shooting at FedExForum Wednesday. 

A 19-year-old Anthony averaged 21 points for the 8th-seed Denver Nuggets in 03-04 and then did it again for the 7th-seed Nuggets the next season.

Amazingly, two more players could join this current Club of One this season. Dallas’ Luka Doncic is nearly a lock, barring a Mavericks collapse. At 28.9 points per game right now, Doncic is on pace for the highest scoring average ever for a player under 21. And if the Grizzlies hold on, either Jackson or (more likely) Morant will join as well. 

But no playoff team has ever been led by two scorers this young. Close: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were each 21 when the Oklahoma City Thunder first made the playoffs in 2009-2010. 

two parter: 1. being where we are now, what's your revised projection for end of season record? 538 obvs has grizz at very low % to make the playoffs. where would you put them? 2. outside of Ja's readiness out the gate & the record, what's the biggest/best surprise story so far?
— Benjamin M. Ingram (@NotoriousBMI) February 13, 2020

Apparently we have one of the hardest schedules after the All-Star break. Looking at FiveThirtyEight they have the Grizz as only a 12% chance at the playoffs.

Is there any truth to this great run to 500+ being easily dismissed as just strength of schedule?
— Jace Nicholson ?? (@Jace_Nicholson) February 13, 2020

I’ve been referencing these projections more over the past week or so. It’s worth noting again that FiveThirtyEight actually publishes two different projection models. If you go to the site, it defaults to one (“RAPTOR”) that seems to be rooted in preseason player ratings. That model, as of this writing, gives the Grizzlies 12% chance of making the playoffs, less than New Orleans (53%) or Portland (32%). That’s the model both Mailbaggers are referencing.

But FiveThirtyEight has a second projection model (ELO) that seems more rooted in in-season performance, which for what I hope are understandable reasons, I find more relevant to this Grizzlies team. That model would still take the field over the Grizzlies, but for the first time on Thursday gives the Grizzlies better odds than their competitors: Memphis (43%), Portland (26%), New Orleans (23%), then San Antonio (11%). 

I don’t know what I’d project – there are so many variables – but it’s true that by some measures the Grizzlies have the NBA’s most difficult remaining schedule, and that should matter greatly. 

Jace makes a good point: If the Grizzlies have the most difficult remaining schedule, that probably means they had a pretty easy one to this point. Is that 28-26 record inflated?

Since the start of 2020, the Grizzlies are 15-5, but have only played six games against teams that currently have a winning record. They went 4-2 in those games, but … 

In each of those four wins, the opposing team was playing without one of its top two players (Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray, Luka Doncic). 

So … yeah, we just don’t know. This Grizzlies team has surprised all season and now has a four-game playoff cushion with 28 games to go. But they are likely to be mightily tested after the break. I do think the Grizzlies’ individual odds should probably now be higher than the Blazers’ or Pelicans’, but also suspect that 43% number could be slightly optimistic.

As to Benjamin’s second question. Right, it’s Ja. But beyond that it’s hard to pinpoint one thing. It’s that a whole series of uncertainties tilted in the right direction: Yes, Dillon Brooks bounced back from injury and proved his strong rookie season was no fluke. Yes, Brandon Clarke’s draftnik fans were right. Yes, De’Anthony Melton was a diamond-in-the-rough who’d been miscast in Phoenix. And, probably biggest of all, yes, the Grizzlies did place a smart bet on a young second assistant from Mike Budenholzer’s Milwaukee bench.

Assuming Winslow is at or near full health by the end of the season, what do you anticipate being the starting lineup and, more importantly, the closing/end of game lineup for the Grizz in what will be a tight playoff race?
— SN (@snMEM901) February 13, 2020

The Grizzlies traded for Justise Winslow for him to be a starting wing next to Dillon Brooks, and I suspect we will see that this season, even with Winslow coming off an injury and into a team in a playoff race. But I don’t think we’ll see it in a first game still likely a couple of weeks away, at least. 

As far as closing lineups, head coach Taylor Jenkins has shown he’s willing to play or sit anyone – including Ja Morant – down the stretch. I think you assume that Morant and Jackson are constant-closers, but beyond that duo I think it’s entirely dependent on matchups and game flow. If this young Grizzlies team has a strength -- beyond WowJaMorantWow -- it’s adaptability. You can bruise with Jonas Valanciunas or fly with Brandon Clarke. You can go big on the perimeter with Dillon Brooks at the two or bring in De’Anthony Melton and shift into smaller lineups. Winslow literally played everywhere from point guard to center at times for the Heat. If he’s the best one-on-one wing defender on the team -- and that’s the idea -- then he’ll find his way not only into the starting lineup, but frequently into the closing one as well. 

A little bit of an analytical question for you. Grizzlies have had such good floor spacing this year. Do you have a feel on how Winslow will affect that? He’s sound but not an elite finisher at the rim or beyond the arc. Thanks!
— Alex Apple (@AlexApple_) February 13, 2020

For most of this season, the Grizzlies started Jae Crowder at small forward, who only shot 29% from 3 for the team, but attempted 9.3 of them per 100 possessions, second only to Jaren Jackson Jr.

Right now, the team is starting Kyle Anderson at small forward. Never comfortable as a spot-up guy, Anderson is better on the ball or cutting to the rim, roles and spaces where he’s going to be secondary to Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas, respectively, in this team’s starting lineup. Anderson’s 2.2 3-point attempts per 100 possessions are the lowest on the roster, and he’s made only 20% of them. 

Broadly speaking, while Anderson has a greater defensive impact, Crowder probably helped the team’s offense more this season, even with his lackluster shooting.

Winslow is likely to provide middle ground. He’ll handle more than Crowder and space more than Anderson. Setting aside his too-small 11-game sample this season, Winslow took 6.3 3-pointers per 100 possessions last season, making 38%. In 2017-2018, it was 3.8 per 100 possessions, at a similar percentage. The Grizzlies would benefit if this rate continues to trend up without losing much in accuracy, but this is still likely to be a starting lineup with only two significant 3-point threats (Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks). 

The last 2 seasons you have said that you thought Brooks was a good player, but not the starting SG player for a playoff quality team. Has the math changed with him having Ja, JJJ, and JV on team being scorers? Has Brooks’ recent emergence changed your thoughts on Dilly, Dilly? -- @latilleon

This was a Twitter question, but Mario embedded a beer-company clip and I’m not here to provide free advertising. “Dilly, Dilly” is bad enough. C’mon, mane.

The reality is that just about any good NBA player can be a starter on a contending team depending on who his teammates are, and Brooks is a good NBA player. 

At age 24, Brooks is averaging nearly 16 points a game for a playoff contender, but is only shooting 41% from the floor. In a Mailbag early in the season, I noted that he would be more effective if he played a bit more of a 3-and-D game. Brooks has shot nearly 39% from 3 on more than five attempts a game and has proven to be an effective if foul-prone defender. But he probably shoots a little too much inside the arc for someone who’s only made 43% of his two-pointers.

Brooks has thrilling hot streaks, but can also be prone to slumps, such as the 12-45 he shot over the final three games before the All-Star Break. Against Portland, Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. both had rough offensive games, but Brooks was 4-16 and Jackson was 1-6. Can Brooks settle into a proper place in an offensive pecking order as a starter, or is his game too nervy for that? Is that nerve part of why he’s good?

It remains more of a sixth-man skill set, I think. But that doesn’t need to be predetermined. Brooks is good and he’s now on a new three-year contract that can accommodate starting or bench roles. We’ll see how it plays out. 

Thoughts on filling the extra roster spot?
— Justin Bradley?? (@JustinBradley3) February 13, 2020

what type of buyout player should Grizz be targeting for 15th spot? I also have seen rumblings about Solomon Hill as a possible buyout candidate. Could Grizz re-sign a player they traded in the same season?
— scott mccullough (@bking53) February 13, 2020

I’ve been an advocate for the Grizzlies to think more long-term even amid an unexpected playoff race, but I’d make an exception here if there were one worth making.

The Grizzlies already have 10 players in their 20s under contract for next season, and that doesn’t include restricted free agent De’Anthony Melton or the second-round pick they have coming from Phoenix. 

Given that two-way contracts have taken 60 of the best G Leaguers off the board, the chance of finding the next JaMychal Green out of developmental free agency are slimmer than they used to be. 

With Grayson Allen out for the season, the Grizzlies are already down one roster spot and their wing rotation is light on shooting. I’d say sign the best perimeter shooter you can, someone who might be able to help you this season. 

Maybe that’s a buyout guy -- Minnesota’s Allen Crabbe? New York’s Wayne Ellington? -- but there’s not much history of the buyout market helping the Grizzlies even in the best of times. Maybe that player is a youngster currently in the G League. Maybe it’s a veteran free agent sitting on the couch (Jamal Crawford?). Maybe it’s a veteran playing overseas whose season will end and who will be free to sign, like MarShon Brooks a couple of years ago.

My sense is that the team isn’t in a hurry to fill the spot. (And the answer is no on Hill.)

Chances Yuta actually gets into the rotation is this also his last yr under the two way program chance ?
— GrizzAffiliate (@God23On) February 13, 2020

The Grizzlies went 10 deep on Wednesday night against Portland with Marko Guduric getting a DNP and with Justise Winslow in street clothes. Assuming Winslow joins the rotation sometime next month, it’s hard to see Watanabe getting a real shot at the rotation without multiple injuries or the Grizzlies falling fully out of the playoff race.

Watanabe is a fluid athlete at 6’8” and seems to be a plus defender, but is already 25, seems to have limited offensive skills and hasn’t dominated at the G League level.

It’s hard to imagine Watanabe coming back for a third season on a two-way contract, but I really don’t know what his future holds. 

If you could compare ja to a hof/superstar player whom would you pick? #GrizzMailbag
— DA MAYOR OF NUTBUSH (@mikefromemphis) February 13, 2020

Funny you should ask. This week, a national piece got some attention comparing Morant to a kind of bigger, more athletic Chris Paul. Last month, I did a Morant break down rooted in interviews with former NBA point guards turned Grizzlies broadcasters Elliot Perry and Brevin Knight that reached a similar conclusion. From that piece:

There simply hasn’t been someone, right out of the gate, who quite combines the supercharged athleticism of a (Derrick) Rose with the pure point guard’s command and efficiency of a (Chris) Paul. Perhaps this makes Morant as much a basketball “unicorn” as anyone. 

If you could redraft the current class of rookies, where do you think BC goes? Top 5?
— ?? C. Grrrrrbrrr ?? (@CGrrrrrbrrr) February 13, 2020

I entertained a similar question earlier in the season and suggested Clarke might jump from No. 21 to the middle of the lottery, maybe as high as No. 6 to Minnesota (who took wing Jarrett Culver). 

Zion Williamson and Ja Morant are obviously still the top picks. Despite his rocky rookie season, I’d have a hard time not sticking with RJ Barrett at No. 3. After that? Given the premium on shooting, I suspect Miami’s Tyler Herro jumps from No. 13 to No. 4.

Rounding out the Top 5? You have two camps of players: Forwards who have been productive as rookies (Clarke, Washington’s Rui Hachimura, Charlotte’s P.J. Washington) and guards/wings who were highly drafted but who have disappointed (Culver, Cleveland’s Darius Garland, Atlanta’s De’Andre Hunter, Chicago’s Coby White). 

There are cases to be made for all seven. Clarke has been the best of the bunch, but is also the oldest. I’m wary of closing the book on very young players too soon. But I’d think very hard about Clarke at No. 5. 

Does the team have enough space or exceptions to sign Melton, pick up option on Allen And sign Josh Jackson?
— Renae Steiner (@renae66) February 13, 2020

The Grizzlies have already picked up their rookie option on Grayson Allen. He’s on a guaranteed contract next season for $2.5 million.

Melton will be a restricted free agent this summer when the Grizzlies extend him a $1.9 million qualifying offer, which they will. The Grizzlies had already declined Jackson’s rookie option for next season, making him an unrestricted free agent this summer.

In Melton’s case, because the team is likely to be over the salary cap, they will be limited somewhat by what is called “Early Bird Rights,” which means the most they could pay Melton is 105% of this season’s average salary ($8 million by some estimates I’ve seen). I think they could also use their mid-level exception to go higher (projected $9.75 million). 

The Grizzlies have expressed confidence about bringing Melton back. As good as he’s been, he is averaging eight points a game as a backup guard, so one would hope those mechanisms are sufficient. 

As for Jackson, the Grizzlies don’t have matching rights, but have full Bird Rights. They can go over the cap to re-sign him to whatever they’re willing to pay. Given Jackson’s track record, price is unlikely to be an issue. It might be more a matter of skill set relative to the rest of the roster. 

If the Grizzlies are going to have Justise Winslow, Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton all in their perimeter rotation, do they want to fill that roster spot with another questionable shooter in Jackson? 

But I’ve got the Grizzlies currently projected as just over the salary cap with a nearly full roster and no first-round draft pick. That should give them more than $20 million in space beneath the luxury tax, enough to secure Melton if the price doesn’t get too high and still conduct some other business.

What's the rule on signing players from overseas to your roster V them going to the draft? There're examples on both sides of players going through the draft or being signed outright. Are they automatically draft eligible at some point? Are the rules similar for domestic players?
— DC The Photographer ?? (@LordNinja11) February 13, 2020

Roughly speaking, international players choose to enter the draft before age 22. If they haven’t entered by age 22, they’re automatically eligible. In either case, if a player then goes undrafted they are free agents that any team can sign. 

A couple of relevant Grizzlies examples: When the team signed Nick Calathes out of Europe in 2013, they had to first trade for his rights from the Dallas Mavericks. Even though Calathes hadn’t played in the NBA, he’d been drafted and the Mavericks had his NBA rights.

This past summer, the Grizzlies signed Marko Guduric out of Europe. Guduric had been eligible for the draft (a couple of years before, I think) and gone undrafted, making him a free agent for NBA purposes.

Grizz salary cap, esp. in 2021-2022, combined with young players under control looks awesome. When does that cap space begin to get eaten up by JJJ’s and then Ja’s max 2nd contracts and what is the last summer Grizz would have max cap room to try and sign big-time FA?
— scott mccullough (@bking53) February 13, 2020

Jaren Jackson Jr. will be under full team control on his rookie-scale contract through 2021-2022, with the team having the ability to make him a restricted free agent in the summer of 2022. In theory, the Grizzlies could wait until that summer. But Jackson will be eligible for an early contract extension the prior season and I’m guessing the Grizzlies will try to ink him before he gets to restricted free agency. 

In that case, the summer of 2021 is probably the last (and now first) big free agent summer for the Grizzlies before the big contracts begin. (Morant’s one year behind Jackson on the same timetable.) 

But my hunch continues to be that the trade market is a more likely avenue than free agency for the Grizzlies to make a significant move.

How is Tony Allen coming along mentoring the Hustle and is there a role with the Grizzlies besides Grindfather Emeritus?
— Marvin Stockwell (@marvinstockwell) February 13, 2020

As long as the NBA has an 82-game regular season, I’m still trying to find time to write about other things and I’ve still got kids in the house, the trek to Southaven for Hustle games is not one I have much time to make. 

I do think Allen’s coaching gig with the Hustle is a step to a larger organizational role with the Grizzlies. Maybe that’s a hand’s-on basketball role. Or maybe it’s a formalized “goodwill ambassador” kind of role, which is fairly common. We’ll see. But I feel comfortable saying that both Allen and the Grizzlies desire for Allen’s post-playing career to be with the franchise. 

Does Memphis and Fedex Forum have a chance to host the All Star game in the next decade? Does having a superstar like Ja (like New Orleans with AD) help us get it?
— Stephen Hauss (@tigerhauss) February 13, 2020

The competitive status of the team or the presence of a star in Morant won’t have anything to do with All-Star game site selection. 

The biggest issue for Memphis has always been hotel-room stock. From a volume standpoint, that’s heading in the right direction if everything currently on the drawing board actually gets built. But from a “five-star” and arena-proximity standpoint, it will probably still be deemed a little lacking. 

I doubt you’ll see an NBA All-Star Game in Memphis in the foreseeable future. I wouldn’t sweat it. 

This is the most fun it is to be a Grizz fan since.... Golden State series?
— Chris Wilson (@chriswilson02) February 13, 2020

Chris is looking back to May of 2015, when the Grizzlies dispatched the Portland Trail Blazers (as it ever was, amirite?) in the first round before going up 2-1 on the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. The was the time of The Man Behind the Mask and First-Team All-Defense.

Good times. 

Last season, the Grizzlies jumped out to a 12-5 start with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley both, for a minute there, playing better together than ever before. It was a mirage, and too early in a season to compare.

But I’m going to rep for a too-forgotten week in April of 2017. As a basketball-watching community, we came out of San Antonio down 0-2 but with the fun-at-the-time “Take that for data/They not gon’ rook us” moment feeding into back-to-back home playoff wins. In Game 3, Zach Randolph had his final great moment in FedExForum and fans got to roam the concourse one last time chanting “Z-Bo! Z-Bo!” In Game 4, Conley played perhaps the best game of his career (35-9-8 on 13-23 shooting) going head-to-head against Kawhi Leonard, and Marc Gasol hit a game-winning overtime buzzer-beater. 

Maybe they waited too late to blow it up, but I’m sure glad Grizzlies history includes that week.