At 28-26, the Memphis Grizzlies find themselves in unexpected territory as the NBA’s All-Star break ends and regular-season play resumes on Thursday. 

In this third-of-a-season sprint, there’s a playoff race to run. A Rookie of the Year race to win. New players to work into the mix. And a long-term goal to keep in mind. 

The Memphis Grizzlies Glossary

Here are five things to think about as Grizzlies basketball returns:

Rebuilding: Phase 2

When some expressed concern about the Grizzlies’ ahead-of-schedule entrance into a playoff race this season, it was primarily because they thought the franchise might short-circuit its rebuild plans in response to the more immediate goal.

But what the Grizzlies did at the trade deadline, and what they step into now as the season picks back up, isn’t a rejection of a rebuild but rather an acceleration into a natural second phase, at least partly. 

When the Grizzlies decided last January that it was time to hit the eject button on their Mike Conley/Marc Gasol-led playoff dreams, they began their rebuild the way most franchises do: By seeking to amass young talent or the draft/trade assets that can become young talent.

These first steps aren’t about team-building but “asset”-building. The Grizzlies took the best total package they could for Gasol and then again for Conley. They worked off the latter into separate detour deals for De’Anthony Melton and draft picks to further build up their base of young talent/assets. Sorting all of that into a functional basketball team comes later, but in this case it came quicker than anticipated.

When the season started, everyone expected the Grizzlies would be treating the trade deadline the same way: More first-phase-of-a-rebuild accumulation. Instead, the Grizzlies shifted into targeted team-building mode. Acquiring Justise Winslow wasn’t about this season – given his injury absence, the departed Jae Crowder may have helped this playoff race more – but it did represent a step forward in a rebuilding process.

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There’s a good chance that the next major trade the Grizzlies make, be it this summer or next season or beyond, will be fully on the other side of this line. That they’ll be like Utah trading for Conley or Toronto trading for Gasol: The ones pooling assets to pluck a help-now player from a rebuilding team. That will be a sign of “rebuild” becoming ‘built.” 

For now, though, there’s a different, operative question about where the Grizzlies truly are in this rebuild: How do they evaluate their own success, and how do we?

Given that their two best players are each 20 years old, the best this iteration of the Grizzlies can be is probably at least three years away. The current playoff race is fun, and has value, but at what point does an evaluation of the Grizzlies’ success stop being about internal improvement and start being gauged strictly by the standings? Next season, for instance, the Grizzlies could improve in some essential way while finishing lower in the standings. Do we grant that such an outcome is possible?

Ultimately, success has to be relative to competition, but there’s an argument to be made that the Grizzlies shouldn’t be there yet, playoff race or not. 

Justise Winslow’s debut and lineups/rotations in flux

A couple of weeks ago, after the Grizzlies acquired Winslow from the Miami Heat, team VP Zach Kleiman said the organization was confident Winslow would play for the team this season, but declined to put a date on it.

There’s a good reason for that: The Grizzlies don’t know when Winslow will debut, but it seems to still be a matter of weeks, not days. 

Whether Winslow’s back situation is ultimately similar to what De’anthony Melton was dealing with in training camp, he’s apparently on a similar comeback plan, with rest/recuperation now leading into a return trajectory, with the team building his workload towards a return. Mid-March seems like the right over/under, but no one really knows.

Unlike Melton, Winslow seems unlikely to start at the bottom of the pecking order. But how quickly he takes his eventual place in the starting lineup might depend on how the Grizzlies’ current starters fare in the days and weeks to come. 

With Grayson Allen out for the season, Winslow still unavailable and the 15th roster spot still open, the Grizzlies will enter the post-break stretch with a pretty obvious 10-man rotation:

• Starters: Ja Morant-Dillon Brooks-Kyle Anderson-Jaren Jackson Jr.-Jonas Valanciunas
• Bench: Tyus Jones-De’Anthony Melton-Josh Jackson-Brandon Clarke-Gorgui Dieng
• Spot minutes/depth: Marko Guduric-Jordan Bell-Yuta Watanabe (2way)-John Konchar (2way)

That current starting lineup was quite good early in the season in a limited sample, but though the Grizzlies have gone 3-1 since trading Jae Crowder, it hasn’t been due to the effectiveness of that lineup, which was outscored by more than 20 points per 100 possessions in those games and really struggled offensively.

If that continues, Winslow will likely displace Anderson in the starting lineup soon after he becomes active. Either way, these likely few weeks with Winslow out will be a kind of de facto audition for reserve wing Josh Jackson.

Jackson has played nearly 18 minutes a game since joining the Grizzlies. He’s shot poorly (37% from the floor, 17% from 3), but the Grizzlies have played well with him on the floor, especially on the defensive end, and Jackson has thrived in transition. If the Grizzlies stay otherwise healthy upon Winslow’s return, Jackson could get pushed to the bench or his play could nudge the Grizzlies back into the 11-man rotations they’ve used for much of the season. 

With every other rotation player either already under contract for next season or firmly in the team’s plans (Melton), Josh Jackson might be the last player left truly in the “evaluation” column this season. 

The other big rotation question for the Grizzlies as the season picks back up is up front, where Dieng joins an already strong trio of Jackson Jr., Valanciunas and Clarke.

The departed Solomon Hill was already playing nearly 19 minutes a game, the majority at power forward. (Cleaning the Glass has Hill getting 65% of his minutes at the 4, the rest at the 3. That seems a little low to me.) So, there’s a rotation role for Dieng to slide into. But if Dieng replaces Hill’s power forward minutes with center minutes, doesn’t that take needed (and tactically effective) center minutes from Jackson Jr.?

Not necessarily. I posed this question directly to Kleiman, who said the team was still committed to getting Jackson minutes in the middle. A couple of days later, head coach Taylor Jenkins answered the same question in the same way, unprompted. 

Dieng has only played one game for the Grizzlies, against Portland before the break, but the frontcourt minutes/combinations breakdown suggests a pretty manageable default:

Individual:

• Jackson: 33 (8 at center)
• Valanciunas: 27
• Clarke: 23
• Dieng: 13

Combinations:

• Jackson-Valanciunas - 25.2
• Clarke-Dieng - 12.6
• Clarke-Jackson - 8.0
• Clarke-Valanciunas - 2.2

Some of Hill’s power forward minutes came alongside Clarke at center. In replacing a Hill/Clarke bench combo with a Clarke/Dieng one, the Grizzlies are mostly replacing Clarke’s center minutes and creating what has a chance to be a much more effective combination, with Dieng’s 3-point threat opening up the rim for Clarke’s attacks and Dieng’s traditional center defense letting Clarke roam without exposing his lack of size/length in post defense. It fits, or seems to.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks slumping

Jackson has topped 15 points only once in his past seven games, during which he’s shot only 34% from the floor and 30% from 3-point range. Jackson’s made multiple 3-pointers only once in five February games. The last time Jackson went even two straight games without multiple 3s was early November. 

For Brooks, the sub-15-point drought has been six games, during which he’s shot 31% from the floor and 21% from 3. 

In both cases, the slump has only been a scoring one. Both have put in the effort on the defensive end, where the Grizzlies have thrived even while their overall team offense has plummeted. 

In Jackson’s case, the most encouraging thing this season has perhaps not been his growth as a 3-point shooter but his defensive return after a rough start, pushing himself into the NBA’s Top 10 in blocks per game and with the Grizzlies’ month-to-month defensive performance with their second-year big man on the floor a straight line in the preferred direction.

These are likely just slumps that will correct themselves, but a couple of player-specific notes on each:

For Brooks, his January (21 points per game on nearly 17 shot attempts and 45/46/86 shooting splits) probably overstates his case. Modulating his aggressiveness without losing it remains the offensive key for Brooks. He got rolling so well that he started trying crazier self-created shots, which started going in … until they didn’t. His best recipe is probably still “3-and-D-plus” rather than “watch me cook.” 

For Jackson, his offensive game remains in-development, and that development might be the greatest long-term X-factor for the Grizzlies. Getting stronger and further developing his handle and post game are likely on Jackson’s off-season to-do list, but here’s hoping the Grizzlies don’t lose track of that in-season development amid a playoff race. Keeping touches and shots flowing in Jackson’s direction will ultimately be for the best, now and down the road. 

The Playoff Race

Let’s reset the playoff odds as the season restarts, using FiveThirtyEight’s “ELO” model:

• Grizzlies 46%
• Blazers 28%
• Pelicans 16%
• Spurs 11%

The Grizzlies open the post-break final third with a four-game lead on the Blazers, a five-game lead on the Spurs and 5.5-game lead on the Pelicans, with 26-28 games to play for each team. 

That’s a nice cushion. Depending on how the Grizzlies perform the rest of the way, how would these teams need to do to catch them? Some scenarios:

That’s to tie. Tiebreakers are still to be determined in each head-to-head scenario. The Pelicans have a 2-0 lead in the season series with the Grizzlies, so the Grizz will have to win both home and road games in March to deny them this advantage.

The Blazers are down 0-1 to the Grizzlies and will have to win both remaining games in Portland for the tiebreaker. The Spurs are down 1-2 and will need to beat the Grizzlies in Texas on March 16 to deny the Grizzlies the tiebreaker.

With all three of these teams playing catch-up, these tiebreakers could be important. They might have a hard time catching the Grizzlies without head-to-head wins. And if the Grizzlies can manage a winning record over their final 28, a playoff spot would be all but guaranteed. Even going 14-14 down the stretch will make the Grizzlies hard to catch, though I wouldn’t put it past the Pelicans to finish 19-8 against the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule. Speaking of which …

I’d keep an eye on those last two columns in the above chart. The Grizzlies have the hardest remaining schedule in the entire NBA based on opponent winning percentage, and as discussed in last week’s Mailbag, there’s evidence to suggest the Grizzlies’ current 28-26 record overstates their case a little. The Grizzlies are better than the 25-win-team they were projected to be, but against a rough late schedule they might well be expected to play at more of a 30-something-win level. And that could make them catchable.

The sorting could start soon. 

The Grizzlies open up with a four-game West Coast trip with three games against Top 5 conference playoff teams. 

The Spurs, who have lost five of their past 6, open with five straight games against probable playoff teams. They could fade quickly.

The Pelicans and Blazers will play each other on Friday. This game is very important, but probably not quite a loser-leaves-town match. The Pelicans, like the Grizzlies, open with a West Coast road trip that includes the Lakers, then come home to face the Lakers again. They need to at least beat the teams they’re supposed to (Golden State, Cleveland) early on to stay in the race.

Despite their loss to Memphis before the break, it might be the Blazers who are best poised to make a quick strike. Between opening with the Pelicans on Friday and hosting Memphis in mid-March, the Blazers have a nine-game stretch that features only two opponents with winning records. The X-factor for Portland: Star guard Damian Lillard’s recovery from the groin strain he suffered in Memphis last week. The time is now for Portland. If it’s not for Lillard, they’re in trouble. 

The Rookie of the Year Race

Is this really a race?

Ja Morant has played 38 more games than late-comer Zion Williamson, which is more than Williamson’s possible total on the season. Williamson had 10 appearances before the All-Star break and his New Orleans Pelicans have 27 games left. Even if Williamson plays them all — which seems doubtful — he’d finish with 37 games played.

Is there any precedent for someone playing so few games and winning Rookie of the Year?

The short answer is no. 

The fewest games played for a ROY winner is 50. Toronto Raptors wing Vince Carter played 50 in 1998-1999, but that was a lockout-shortened season. New York Knicks center Patrick Ewing won playing 50 games in 1985-1986, beating out Seattle forward Xavier McDaniel, who played all 82 and started 80.

That’s probably the best corollary to this season. Like Williamson, Ewing was a No. 1 overall pick expected to be an instant NBA superstar, so the media attention was focused more on him. And while No. 4 pick McDaniel was very good (17 points, eight rebounds), Ewing (20 and 9) was a little better. 

Enough better to win despite playing 32 fewer games? Voters thought so. But Williamson isn’t even capable of playing half a season. 

The last time a player won ROY playing even fewer than 60 games in a non-shortened season was Brandon Roy, who played 57 games for Portland in 2006-2007. In a rough rookie class, he didn’t have much competition, besting Toronto’s Andrea Bargnani and Memphis’ Rudy Gay.

The best previous sub-40-game candidate? Probably Sixers’ center Joel Embiid, who finished third in 2016-2017 despite playing only 31 games (and only 25 minutes a game). The winner that year was Milwaukee’s Malcolm Brogdon, a second-round pick who played 75 games and averaged 10 points. There were some (raises hand) who thought Embiid should have won.

But rookie Ja Morant is not rookie Malcolm Brogdon, or perhaps even rookie Xavier McDaniel. 

Ewing’s low-game bid was successful; Embiid’s wasn’t. But neither was chasing a No. 2 overall pick having a superb rookie season. If Morant continues at his current pace, both in terms of production and games played, he, like the Grizzlies, should be hard to catch.

But if Morant slips down the stretch, all bets are off. And if the Pelicans catch and pass the Grizzlies for a playoff spot, that will be a narrative that voters already inclined toward Williamson can embrace. This race isn’t over yet.