According to Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland’s administration, the number of police officers the city needs is 2,800 – not the 2,300 to 2,400 Strickland has set as a general goal since taking office in 2016.

And the administration is pushing for the higher number as the Memphis City Council is about to take a final vote on killing the referendum that would allow the city to hire police officers and firefighters who don’t live in the city.

The administration push for the higher complement and keeping the residency question on the November ballot began Thursday with an op-ed in The Daily Memphian by city Human Resources Chief Alex Smith.

City HR officer: ‘We were wrong’ about residency

“We told anyone who would listen that to help drive down violent crime in our city, we needed to recruit as many as 2,300 officers to the Memphis Police Department by the end of this year,” Smith wrote. “Not only are we short of reaching the short-term goal — the goalposts have been moved.”

Smith cited a recent study of police staffing by criminal justice consultants Richard Janikowski and Phyllis Betts commissioned by the administration. The study, made public last week during a City Council committee session, recommends a police force of 2,807 compared to the current force of just under 2,100 and the goal Strickland set of 2,300 by the end of 2020.

Smith linked the new recommendation to the council’s upcoming final vote next week on the residency referendum.

“The need to recruit and retain police officers has only intensified. It’s a fact that cannot be changed by the longevity of the coronavirus pandemic or current civil unrest — our police and fire departments are in crisis,” Smith wrote. “To help ease this personnel crisis within our public safety ranks, our current residency policy for MPD and Memphis Fire Department must be lifted.”

Janikowski and Betts, of Strategic City Solutions, are retired University of Memphis professors who worked with the city in formulating the police Blue Crush strategy during Mayor Willie Herenton’s administration.

The strategy was to highlight statistical increases in specific crime hot spots within the city and battle those with the movement of more police to those areas.

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The city’s overall and violent crime rates dropped as a result.

Strickland campaigned in 2015 with a push to increase police ranks that dropped during the administration of Mayor A C Wharton, who followed Herenton.

Strickland says more police officers means a lower crime rate.

Critics on the council of a larger police force question the connection.

Council member Martavius Jones questioned Janikowski last week about the connection.

Janikowski says the research “has been split.”

“Though in looking at the literature, the evolving consensus is that there is a relationship between the number of officers and the amount of violent crime,” he said. “In particular, what needs to be looked at in Memphis is aggravated assaults. Aggravated assault does not respond to traditional proactive policing strategies.”

And Janikowksi said aggravated assault is a “major factor pushing Memphis’s violent crime numbers.”