For Republicans like me who reside in Shelby County, there’s a question echoing through our minds following the recent election — an election where Democrats outvoted Republicans 2-to-1.

“What happened?” 

That 2-to-1 vote let the Dems sweep the county offices from District Attorney to all of the Court Clerks. 

As we take an even closer look, more questions emerge. To me, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Shelby County, the most important question is, “Why didn’t Republicans turn out to vote?” 

Sanford: Election outcome was emphatic message of rejection to the GOP

Following the Aug. 4 elections, Republicans were recently out in numbers as Charlotte Bergmann, the winner of the GOP primary for the U.S. Congressional 9th District, had her first fundraiser in Germantown. Bergmann will face off against U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen in November. I attended the gathering and among local Republican activists, insiders and party officials, there was much discussion about how the Republicans’ “Red Wave” had not shown up in Shelby County in August.

The Bergmann win reflects some of the questions local Republicans have. While it seemed to some that Bergmann wasn’t the local party’s first choice, she was the people’s choice and leapt over the opposition. Bergmann’s primary opposition was Republican Brown Dudley, who was on the ballot despite his lack of meeting the bona fide voting criteria.

For those not familiar with it, the bona fide voting criteria for local Republicans requires that a candidate has voted in three of the last four statewide Republican primary elections. Because Dudley didn’t meet this criteria, the local Republican party chairman, Cary E. Vaughn, had to vouch for Dudley and all of the area Republican State Executive Committee had to vote to approve the voucher, in order to even get him on the ballot.

What’s important about this race? It raises some important issues. First, what does it take to get local Republicans out to vote? Second, how far to the right should local Republicans position themselves in Shelby County? Third, what can Republicans do to get crossover votes? Fourth, does the local Republican Party need a more unified message across all candidates?

One concern that many Republican insiders have is whether more competitive primaries in Republican strongholds would have helped turnout. The Bergmann/Dudley race was one of the few primaries with multiple candidates on the Republican Ballot in August. For example, Tennessee Senate District 31 — a Republican stronghold — only had one Republican on the ballot, Brent Taylor. 

That’s because Brandon Toney was pulled from the District 31 ballot due to similar bona fide circumstances as the aforementioned Brown Dudley. Toney was voted off the ballot by the Republican State Executive Committee. Would leaving Toney on the ballot have turned out more Republicans to vote? 

As the vote totals for Republican incumbent Amy Weirich, the Shelby County District Attorney, began to come up short on election night, this was a nagging question many had. Had there been a primary in the stronghold of District 31, would more Republicans have turned out and voted for Weirich? When we examine the District 31 numbers there are no clear answers. District 31 had more Republican votes than any Senate District in Tennessee anyway, without the primary. 

The next questions are: Would running on a more right-leaning platform have helped with Republican turnout? Or would a more moderate platform have gotten more crossover votes? 

Let’s spill the tea on the far right question. Far right groups that are emerging in Shelby County, as well as across Tennessee and the nation, are running for elected positions including everything from school boards to U.S. Congress. 

Sanford: GOP dominance in Tennessee sprouted in ’94, accelerated in ’08

For example, Bob Hendry ran against 8th District U.S. Congressman David Kustoff with a far right platform. But Hendry’s far right position didn’t seem to help him win; Hendry got 2,977 votes to Kustoff’s 24,257. Granted, Hendry was a virtual unknown running against an incumbent who has had very few complaints from Republicans about his votes in Congress. 

But Shelby County as a whole is, of course, vastly different from the rest of the counties in the state. It’s vastly different than even the U.S. Congressional 8th District, which includes parts of Shelby County.

The Aug. 4 results show that of 137,908 ballots cast in Shelby County, Democrats carried approximately 66% of the vote. Could some of those 137,908 voters have been convinced to crossover and vote Republican?

In an attempt to get crossover votes, some Republicans on the ballot shied away from the big Republican events like Lincoln Day, etc. But in my opinion, skipping these events was the reason these candidates failed to garner votes on both sides. Republicans weren’t excited by candidates who skipped the Republican events. And so they didn’t bother to vote. 

Democrats, meanwhile, simply voted “D” from top to bottom on the ballot. (Which, unfortunately, led to the re-election of seemingly incompetent Democrats like Wanda Halbert, who has done such a terrible job that the state wanted to step in at one point.)

Halbert re-elected in county clerk’s race, Swearengen takes Circuit Court Clerk

But would a unified message from Republicans have helped win more seats? Brent Taylor, Republican Candidate for Tennessee Senate District 31, is uniquely qualified to answer as a former member of the Memphis City Council, the Shelby County Commission, and as former Shelby County Election Commission Chairman. 

Taylor blames not having a unified message as the reason why Republicans tanked in the August General Election. “What was missing in the August election was a unified message,” Taylor told me. “All of the various candidates had their own messages they were attempting to deliver to the voters, and by Election Day those messages were all disjointed and muddled.” 

“And feeling confused,” Taylor concluded, “many voters chose not to vote.” 

Could the Shelby County Republican Party have put out a unified message and gotten voters to the polls? It seems that they were unable to organize such a feat both within the local party and with the candidates.

Be that as it may, getting GOP voters to the polls is a national problem. Rural counties across the country have only 30% of the turnout that they did in 2018. Trump Republicans say they feel alienated from the Party and that they will not vote for RINOs (Republicans In Name Only), although they show up at rallies and gatherings. In contrast, conservatives who are 30 to 40 years old are turned off by any hint at far right rhetoric, and it’s a noticeable age gap at any local Republican gathering.

The good news for Republicans — at least in other parts of the country — is that candidates who deliver answers are being elected. From school boards to U.S. Senators, the candidates who deliver their messages with solutions — solutions based on the core conservative values — have won elections all over the country, including unexpected upsets in some races.

Here in Shelby County, general elections are final, hence the term general. And so, we Republicans are stuck for another four years. The Democrats ignored incompetence, voted in Wanda Halbert, and seemed to regret it immediately if they needed a car tag. Halbert took off on vacation soon after the election and the tag office has had lines again from the first day of September, despite the “no waiting policy”. 

Is incompetence ignored by the voters who simply vote party lines? Another question emerges both locally and nationally as high gas prices and crime both rise: How much pain will it take for Democrats to cross over and vote for a Republican? How much pain will it take for Republicans to even come out to vote?