The November midterm election, which is 47 days away, is shaping up to be a real snoozer in Shelby County.

I say that reluctantly because the last thing I want to do is discourage people from voting — particularly since the emphasis all this week has been on increasing voter registration numbers. I honestly believe we have a civic obligation to show up at the polls no matter what.

But unless something cataclysmic occurs in the coming weeks, virtually all the major races in November for Congress, governor and Tennessee House and Senate seats appear to be lopsided contests.

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Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee, as well as sitting U.S. Reps. David Kustoff and Steve Cohen, are considered shoo-ins for reelection. And none of the legislative races seem compelling.

So, I’ve started looking ahead 378 days from now to Election Day for Memphis mayor. And that one, on Oct. 5, 2023, is fast becoming the most consequential mayoral race in more than 30 years.

If for no other reason, it will mark the first regular city mayoral election without an incumbent running since 1971. That year, Henry Loeb, who had become a pariah among many Memphis voters for his atrocious handling of the 1968 city sanitation strike, wisely opted not to seek reelection.

And in a runoff battle, then-city councilman Wyeth Chandler edged then-Juvenile Court Judge Kenneth Turner by less than 2,000 votes out of more than 166,000 votes cast.

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Since then, Memphians, with a couple of exceptions in 1991 and 2015, have been content to stick with incumbent mayors. But with term limits now solidly in place — despite repeated efforts to repeal them — current Mayor Jim Strickland must leave office at the end of next year. And the field of would-be successors seems to be growing by the day.

Already off and running are Van Turner, a former Shelby County commissioner, and Paul Young, president and CEO of the Downtown Memphis Commission. This week, Memphis-Shelby County Schools Board chairwoman Michelle McKissack announced the formation of an exploratory committee — which is tantamount to announcing a run.

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We’re still waiting to see if state Rep. Karen Camper will launch a mayoral bid. And there are other even bigger names waiting in the wings for what I am told will likely be an “October surprise.”

They are county Sheriff Floyd Bonner and Rev. Keith Norman, pastor of First Baptist Church Broad and — like Turner — a former president of the Memphis branch of the NAACP.

Bonner has been dropping hint after hint lately that he has made up his mind to enter the race. And Norman is making no secret of the fact that his interest in running is as strong as ever.

“I don’t see a person in the race so far, including Floyd Bonner, who can speak to a broad section of this community the way that I can speak on the issues of poverty and crime,” Norman told me this week.

Whether that is overconfidence designed to scare other contenders away from running remains to be seen. One local poll, conducted a year ago by political consultant Steven Reid, showed Turner and Norman atop the list of possible candidates in favorability.

But that was a year ago when Bonner was not included. If the sheriff does enter the race, he becomes a game changer because he arguably has more crossover appeal than any other announced or potential candidate.

That’s particularly true in light of the recent kidnapping and murder of pre-kindergarten teacher Eliza Fletcher, followed just days later by the terrifying random shooting spree across the city that left three people dead and three others wounded.

Public safety in general and violent crime in particular have only accelerated as the top issues in next year’s city election.

Plus, Bonner, a Democrat, has never been more popular, having won reelection as sheriff last month without any Republican opposition. And he is clearly listening to those urging him to seek the mayor’s office.

“I do think that he sees it as more of a calling,” one knowledgeable political source told me this week. “We need somebody who crosses political lines. We don’t need somebody who’s polarizing.”

But the differences between running the sheriff’s office and running the city are stark. And popularity is often fleeting.

In other words, some of the same people who are praising Sheriff Bonner today would undoubtedly be among those condemning Mayor Bonner two years from now.

The key test will be which candidates are able to raise enough money — in the six figures and higher — to wage a viable campaign. And although city elections will remain nonpartisan in 2023, party affiliation will still be an undertone in the campaign.

The Memphis electorate is overwhelmingly Democratic. But some political observers have expressed worry that too many African American candidates on the ballot would allow a white Republican to gain a plurality of the votes and win the mayor’s office.

I think those worries are overstated. Because any candidate who hopes to become mayor needs at least 15% or more support from African American voters.

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Strickland, who is white, was successful in 2015 and 2019 not just because there were multiple Black candidates, but because he had a focused message, was a two-term councilman from a swing district and was a former chairman of the local Democratic Party.

If either of the current white councilmen who identify as Republican — Frank Colvett, Worth Morgan, Chase Carlisle or Ford Canale — decides to run, he would face a near impossible task of getting even high single-digit support from African American voters.

As McKissack considers a mayoral run, she is hoping that voters will agree with her that, “maybe it’s time for a woman to take the reins” of the city government.

But she will have to give a much better answer than the convoluted response she gave Tuesday, Sept. 20, to questions about how the school board handled the resignation of former superintendent Joris Ray.

Ray walked away with a $480,000 buyout last month after the board halted an independent investigation into allegations of sexual improprieties against him.

“There are challenges in every job that one has,” McKissack said. “It just so happens that the job I do and that other public servants — it’s out there on full display.

“I think it’s more about how you go about meeting those challenges, how you learn from them, how you come back from them,” she said. “I believe the leadership that the board showed is something that we can apply to any and every job and that’s what I would plan to do.”

With a response like that, perhaps McKissack is banking that since the election is more than a year away, voters will forget the school board’s debacle in handling Ray’s exit.

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But if she stays in the race, you can bet other candidates and the media will keep reminding voters of her role in using taxpayer dollars to make the scandal quietly go away.

Meanwhile, for comic relief, let’s not forget that former television judge Joe Brown is planning a mayoral run of his own.

In more lucid times, Brown served as a real judge on the Shelby County Criminal Court bench. But his run for mayor, like his old TV show, is strictly for entertainment purposes only. I liken it to the numerous campaigns waged by Robert “Prince Mongo” Hodges.

Antics aside, the 2023 Memphis mayor’s race is crucial for the future of this city. And only serious candidates need to apply.

But it’s not too early for voters to start paying attention. Besides, with such a lackluster midterm election coming up in November, this is all we have.