Former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton’s entry into the 2023 Memphis mayoral race makes at least 11 candidates.

And it shows just how wide open it is in February, eight months before the Oct. 5 election. 

Herenton, who served from 1992 to 2009, said Monday he was joining the already crowded field to replace outgoing Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland, who is term-limited. Herenton’s nascent 2023 bid comes after he failed to defeat Strickland in 2019, finishing second with 28.7% of the vote.

Herenton joins race for Memphis mayor

But now there’s no incumbent. Memphis political analysts and politicians say Herenton, who turns 83 in April, has a chance because of his name recognition and political ability. 

“If the number of candidates is not reduced measurably, then Mayor Herenton has a chance to win this thing,” said Susan Adler Thorp, a Memphis political consultant and former journalist. “My best guess is that he has looked at the field of candidates and knowing the kind of job it is to run the city. He doesn’t feel as if anyone is more qualified than he is.”

Herenton, in his video announcement, said he did not think anyone in the field had the experience to lead Memphis, but he and his campaign declined to comment beyond the video Monday.

“I think it’s safe to say that Mayor Herenton putting his name on the ballot completely changed the dynamic of how you have to campaign,” Memphis City Council Vice Chairman JB Smiley, Jr. said.

“I think the next mayor of Memphis could potentially win (with) 20 to 23% of the vote. And the question for the voters will be do they want someone that’s been tried and tested? Or do they want a completely different vision for the city? And that’s what campaigns are made for.”

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Smiley, who was endorsed by Herenton in his 2022 bid for Tennessee governor, noted that Memphis municipal elections are low turnout affairs and it takes a plurality, not a majority, to win. And Herenton has plenty of name recognition.

If 25% of voters actually vote, Smiley said, then “the majority of those 25%, at some point in their life, voted for Mayor Herenton.”

Both he and Thorp cautioned that it’s February and it is very early. Memphis voters, beyond the donor class and politicos, aren’t yet paying attention.

Of the 11 candidates who have announced or filed campaign finance paperwork, campaign finance filings have shown three tiers of funding — Shelby County Sheriff Floyd Bonner, Businessman J.W. Gibson and Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young have $300,000 or more. Former Shelby County Commissioner Van Turner has about $150,000. Then there’s everybody else.

Young has acknowledged he will need his substantial fundraising haul to boost his name recognition beyond government circles. Bonner is the only person in the race who has been elected countywide this decade, but Herenton’s entry still changes the race for him, Smiley said, and will force him to campaign more and raise more cash.

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Turner has about half as much money as Gibson, Bonner and Young but Thorp noted the free media he’s received this past month.

“He has gotten an enormous amount of positive publicity during the day after the murder of Tyre Nichols, and that counts for building his name recognition,” Thorp said.

Turner, in his role as president of the NAACP Memphis Branch, has appeared on television talking about the case and at a news conference with Nichols’ family attorney Ben Crump.

Herenton’s entry also changes the fundraising game, according to Thorp and Smiley.

“If they’re listening to the politicos, what you’re going to see now is a lot of those donors will begin to give to more than one candidate…. I think you’re gonna see Willie Herenton raise some money. He doesn’t even need it because he has name ID.

The early stage of the campaign makes predictions tenuous. And Thorp and Smiley both cautioned that there will be several twists and turns left to go. The first day for candidates to pick up qualifying petitions is in May and the filing deadline in July 20.

“Right now, as I see it, we have a race between Floyd Bonner. Paul Young, Van Turner and Willie Herenton,” Thorp said. “We’ve got three in there that have considerable name recognition and one that has already raised a lot of money, so it’s a hard one to call at this point. If all you need is one more vote than the number two guy to win the race, go do your math.”