I’ve spent more time in Haywood County, Tennessee, over the past few months than I ever thought I would.

My company just broke ground on the new Tennessee College of Applied Technologies in support of BlueOval City, Ford’s new electric vehicle manufacturing campus.

This means I’ve spent a good deal of time either on the site or in the surrounding area at community information meetings in preparation for construction.

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I’ve explored Stanton, nearby downtown Oakland, and downtown Brownsville.

I’ve also driven around the massive construction site of the Ford and electric battery plants.

The site, at almost six square miles, is a city in and of itself. Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development estimates that there will be around $5.6 billion in capital investments and more than 33,000 direct or indirect jobs during construction.

Once completed, the campus should employ close to 6,000 people.

For the better part of two years, BlueOval City has been the centerpiece of discussions regarding economic development in West Tennessee.

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The Greater Memphis Chamber has consistently touted Ford’s investment as transformational to our region, and in many ways, it will be.

Large manufacturers consistently spur economic growth through the jobs they directly create and the ancillary services that support them.

For BlueOval City, it is estimated that the total economic impact will be the addition of $3.5 billion per year to Tennessee’s gross state product, which will generate more than 27,000 new jobs.

So, there is no question that Ford will create a seismic shift in our local and regional economy. And, with construction now well underway, the surrounding communities are actively preparing for the changes that will inevitably come.

Last week, I left my office one morning and drove to Haywood County once again. During the 45-minute drive down Interstate 40, I passed mile after mile of prototypical rural America: farmland interrupted only by the occasional billboard or highway gas station.

Ford’s BlueOval City got on the road in 2022

Many of those billboards either welcomed BlueOval City or were BlueOval City saying hello right back.

It was a weird silent conversation between two groups just getting to know each other.

Looking across that vast, mostly undeveloped land, it was hard to imagine anything making a sizable impact on those communities anytime soon.

But history reminds us that the impact is coming and coming fast.

So, the details are what matter now.

We’ve celebrated the Chamber superlatives, but the real work is just starting for the municipalities within the impact crater of the Ford Plant.

How exactly are the surrounding communities going to react?

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And will they create places, not just for industry to thrive, but places where people actually want to live? Will the surrounding population get a say in how growth is planned, or will the I-40 corridor between Memphis and Jackson simply become a sprawling mess?

As a lifelong Memphian, I have somewhat tempered optimism toward the investment in BlueOval City.

I also have my concerns about the impact of continued eastward expansion. Some people from the Memphis core will inevitably migrate to these surrounding areas as the development grows to support them.

Just look at Arlington as the barometer. At the 2000 census, the population there was 2,569. By 2010, it had grown to 11,517. As of the 2020 census, there are now roughly 15,000 people living there.

Simultaneously, the Memphis population declined from 690,186 in 2000 to 628,127 in 2020.

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While the decline cannot be solely attributed to regional population shift, much of it can.

The surrounding communities have become more competitive through newer home stock and the promises of better schools and safer communities. This shift will likely continue as the Ford Plant comes on line.

We are hopeful that new industry will attract a workforce into our region in addition to educating and employing those who are already here.

But we must also be cognizant of the risks associated with population shift.

For a city, which has invested so heavily in a revitalized downtown and urban core, a declining population and an outward migration represent real challenges to ongoing investment.

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Conversely, this outward migration plus the influx of a potential new population also represents opportunities for our neighbors to the east.

Many of these communities will find themselves in need of new housing, new infrastructure, and services to support a growing population.

How are the community leaders planning for these changes?

These topics and questions are precisely why I joined the Urban Land Institute (ULI) years ago.

Since our inception in 2007, the ULI Memphis district has been immersed in the defining discussions around land use, growth and development in West Tennessee.

Our members routinely consist of designers, planners, developers and real estate professionals who analyze the impacts of the built environment as a profession.

Is Shelby County ready for BlueOval City impact?

More importantly, this is a group of people who care deeply about Memphis and the surrounding region. Smart growth, resilience, sustainability and diversity in economic development are all at the forefront for a ULI member.

As a result, we actively engage with our community to explore best practices, emerging trends, and thought leadership in real estate planning development.

On Tuesday, Feb. 21, at 10 a.m., we have invited those leading the BlueOval City charge to join the stage at the Shelby Farms Event Center with mayors from our surrounding municipalities.

Our goal is to explore these ideas from a planning perspective and engage in meaningful discussions about the exciting future of the Mid-South region. I would highly encourage you to come and be a part of this important conversation.

To register, click here.