Last month, Alabama transfer guard and former McDonald’s All-American Jaden Bradley took a visit to Memphis.

If you’re familiar with Penny Hardaway’s recruiting, he almost always lands any player who gets on campus. So that was a positive development for the Tigers as they build out their 2023 roster.

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But three weeks of radio silence went by until last Wednesday, when Bradley committed not to Memphis – but to Arizona.

This was the latest hit for a roster that’s already taken a few this offseason. Incoming five-star guard Mikey Williams has been charged with six gun-related felonies. His preliminary hearing isn’t until June 29; it’s unclear when and if he’ll ever show up. Johnathan Lawson, who could’ve taken a decent step as a redshirt sophomore, transferred to Creighton.

While Memphis has brought in several solid transfer pieces, it doesn’t yet feel like a roster that’s equipped to replace the production it’s losing from last season in its main pieces, Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams. There’s no projected first-round pick. There’s no reigning conference player of the year.

After missing on Bradley, it raises some questions about whether Memphis will be able to keep up its previously torrid recruiting pace in the era of name, image and likeness.

When NIL went into effect in 2021, Memphis felt like it was well-positioned to take full advantage. Memphis is a great city. There’s a passionate fan-base. There’s a big corporate community. The sense was that the program would be able to harness all of that passion and the resources to be a NIL powerhouse. After all, Memphis already had the reputation – earned or not – as a program that operated in the gray area.

Sure enough, that jubilation was followed by a string of immediate successes. A month after NIL deals could be made, Hardaway landed Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren, the Nos. 5 and No. 6 players in the 2021 class, respectively. The year after, Hardaway landed Davis, who was rated as the best transfer in the portal. Indeed, the Tigers’ recruiting was as strong as ever.

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In some ways, one would’ve expected things to get easier for Hardaway. He and the Tigers’ program came out victorious in an alleged rules violation battle against the NCAA. But the parade of high-priced and high-profile recruits seems to have stopped – at least for the time being.

Why?

In talking to a number of ambassadors recently, the Tigers’ highest-level boosters indicate the reason is two-fold.

One: The pool of donors at Memphis who can help make these things happen isn’t all that deep. Ultimately, you’re going back to the same people each and every time. Remember: Hardaway can’t foot the NIL bill himself. Coaches aren’t allowed to do that.

Two: Those same boosters aren’t nearly as enthused about NIL as they used to be. You can probably understand why. Every year, players drop in for a season and leave. There’s very little connection there. If it feels transactional, well, that’s because it is. Then you’ve got to do the same exact thing again next year. And, by the way, not every player is going to be as good as Kendric Davis. There are going to be some duds along the way. There aren’t any guarantees about team success, either.

Memphis isn’t the only school that’s encountering this, by the way.

Look around. Texas Tech lost a bunch of players to the transfer portal. Syracuse lost its two best players and their top booster recently said he’s done supporting the school’s NIL efforts (though for different reasons). Kentucky wasn’t willing to guarantee upfront NIL money to Michigan transfer and All-American big man Hunter Dickinson; he committed to Kansas. Miami, after being the market leader in NIL deals, isn’t spending nearly as much. The bubble is popping nationwide – faster for some schools than others.

None of this is meant to be a criticism of Hardaway. He can’t change how people feel philosophically about the direction of college basketball. All he can do is try to keep them engaged, via personal relationships or winning big.

If anything, it’s a reminder of how tough the job is. Some boosters may not believe the results are up to snuff, so they don’t want to keep contributing. But if they stop contributing, that makes landing elite players that much harder, which means the results probably won’t be up to snuff.

It’s a nasty cycle.

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No one will ever doubt Penny Hardaway’s ability to get players. Duren and Bates weren’t even mentioned with the Tigers until they committed, essentially. He beat out Houston and Kansas for Davis. But, as the dust settles, this recruiting cycle is proving to be a difficult test. If Memphis is to have a roster good enough to keep the NCAA Tournament streak alive, it’s going to require his most creative work yet.