And the countdown continues. 

As of this writing, things have gone quiet on the NBA transaction front following Sunday night’s blockbuster trade between the Phoenix and Washington that sent guard Bradley Beal to the Suns for Chris Paul and several other pieces.

But rumors are percolating.

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It’s “smoke screen” season, but there’s usually a little bit of fire within the haze.

For the Memphis Grizzlies, conjecture is at more of a simmer than a boil. One national report suggested that backup point guard Tyus Jones was likely to be traded. Another that the Grizzlies are trying to move up in Thursday night’s draft. Another that the Grizzlies are among teams interested in Toronto forward OG Anunoby, though that last one might be some carryover from last February’s trade deadline, when the Grizzlies offered multiple first-round picks for Anunoby. It is known.

The most specific Grizzlies rumor/report so far comes from Yahoo’s Jake Fischer, who cites unidentified “league sources” in suggesting that despite Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension to start next season, the Grizzlies are exploring trade opportunities for Jones, with an eye on replacing Dillon Brooks at small forward.

This suggestion may be familiar to regular readers of this space. 

Elsewhere, the more informed mock drafts are making adjustments. Fresh Tuesday: ESPN has the Grizzlies taking UCLA forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. at pick No. 25. The Ringer has them selecting Santa Clara combo guard Brandin Podziemski.

Grizzlies Podcast: Memphis NBA Draft preview

Do any of these writers, including this one, really know what the Grizzlies will do? Nope. Do the Grizzlies even know at this point? Maybe not. 

Free agency, trades and the draft are the three-legged stool of the NBA offseason. I’ve mostly focused on the first two in the past few columns. Today, the draft.

Trader Zach, the draft and a roster crunch

The Grizzlies enter the draft with three picks, their own at Nos. 25 and 56 and Minnesota’s pick at No. 45, the final piece from last summer’s trade for Jake LaRavia.

Three picks. But at the moment only one roster spot with 14 players already on guaranteed contracts next season.

If the Grizzlies didn’t have other needs to address, this wouldn’t be a problem. Only first-round picks, No. 25, come with guaranteed contracts. The two second-round picks are low enough that the Grizzlies can probably sign both players to “two-way” contracts and keep them off the 15-man main roster. 

The Grizzlies could make their three picks and be done with the offseason.

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That’s possible, but it seems unlikely, not with a need at small forward the team would prefer to fill with a veteran and not with lead executive Zach Kleiman’s history of draft-week activity. 

Managing three picks and a tight roster could be a challenge for Kleiman, who hasn’t liked to sit back and take what comes to him. 

In the 1980s, San Diego Padres general manager Jack McKeon was dubbed “Trader Jack” for his penchant to deal. 

When it comes to the NBA draft, Kleiman has been something of a “Trader Zach”.

Of the 10 players Kleiman has acquired in the four drafts he’s conducted, eight have been the byproduct of trades. The only exceptions were Ja Morant, a gimme at second overall, and Vince Williams Jr., deep in last summer’s second round.

FedExForum replacing Grizzlies practice court, broadcast systems

Several of these involved moving up a few spots or into later portions of the draft for modest future draft assets: Brandon Clarke (up two spots for one future second-rounder), Desmond Bane (acquiring the last pick in the first round for two future seconds and cap space), Xavier Tillman Sr. (up five spots for one future second), Santi Aldama (up 10 spots for two future seconds), LaRavia (up three spots for the 29th pick that season) and Kennedy Chandler (into the second round for a future second-rounder).

The Ziaire Williams and David Roddy acquisitions were a little different, the former involving moving up seven spots alongside lots of other moving pieces, the latter acquired for veteran De’Anthony Melton. 

While not all of these moves have worked out, the overall record is quite good. The Bane maneuver is the single best item on a strong overall resume, and the Clarke, Tillman and Aldama moves are also clear wins. 

It’s notable that the Grizzlies enter the week with nine of these 10 players still under contract, and eight of them on the main roster. 

The Grizzlies have also ended up rostering three players signed as undrafted rookie free agents in Kleiman’s tenure, with two of those (John Konchar, Kenneth Lofton Jr.) also on the current roster.

Grizzlies Insider: Who has Memphis worked out ahead of the NBA Draft?

While Kleiman has ended up cutting some of his draft-night acquisitions (Chandler, undrafted signee Killian Tillie), he has never traded one. 

That’s a trend certain to end at some point. Might it end this week?

Kleiman’s tendency has been to target players on draft night and maneuver up to get them rather than take his chances. And even though the team sent out three future second-round picks to acquire Luke Kennard last February, by my count they still have at least four they could deal, along with a full complement of first-round picks. 

Kleiman has the fuel to power similar activity again this week, but needs to be more cognizant than ever of his tight roster.

A trade-up theory

Are the Grizzlies really trying to trade up from pick 25?

I don’t know, but the notion inspired a theory.

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When the Grizzlies traded up from 17 to 10 in 2021, they ended up selecting Williams, but the move wasn’t dependent on a specific player.

The team wanted a wing player with size, saw several they liked projected in the back half of the draft lottery and secured one of those picks days ahead of the draft, certain it would land one of those players.

If you apply a similar logic to his year’s draft, you’ll find a preponderance of combo guards projected to go in the 10-22 range. At least five of them in fact: Michigan’s Kobe Bufkin, Indiana’s Jalen Hood-Schifino, Kentucky’s Cason Wallace, Baylor’s Keyonte George and Arkansas’ Nick Smith Jr. It might be six if Podziemski is rising, as some reports suggest. 

The Grizzlies biggest specific need is a new starting small forward. But they have plenty of depth there. The biggest skill areas to shore up are ball handling, playmaking and perimeter scoring. A dynamic combo guard would address this battery of needs.

Six late-draft types, and this year’s models

On last week’s Daily Memphian Grizzlies Podcast, Drew Hill and I shared our respective top-five lists of draft targets we’d favor for the Grizzlies at No. 25. There was actually zero overlap. You can hear more discussion of those 10 individual players (and a few others) there. 

Here’s a look at some of those prospects through the prism of different player types and the recent success rate of them when taken outside the Top 20.

All evaluations are ultimately individual, and you can find hits and misses in each category. But these are in roughly ascending order of recent past success.

Second-year breakouts: Players neither highly regarded enough as raw prospects or successful enough as college freshmen to crash the draft after a single season, but who used a strong second college season to achieve escape velocity.

Morant is the greatest example, but for players of a lower velocity – those who still couldn’t crack the Top 20 – the hits are more meager, with zero All-Stars from drafts since 2010. 

A candidate this season who fits this bill: Podziemski, one of my podcast picks.

Do you trust that his one great college season is enough evidence given his lesser combination of prospect pedigree and physical tools?

Another is Pepperdine’s Maxwell Lewis, one of Drew’s picks.

One-and-done pedigree picks: The draft in recent years is dominated by highly regarded prospects who spent only one year in college, but what does that say about the ones who get pushed down past No. 20? Usually there’s some injury concern, the college production isn’t fully persuasive or maybe they’re overestimating their own status as a prospect.

There have been a few hits here since 2010, and most of them are very recent, but no All-Stars yet. The best is probably Philadelphia guard Tyrese Maxey. 

There are lots of potential candidates of this ilk in this one-and-done heavy draft: Duke’s Dariq Whitehead and Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh have injury concerns. Alabama’s Noah Clowney and South Carolina’s GG Jackson are particularly raw. Michigan’s Jett Howard has questions about his athleticism and upside. 

Howard and Whitehead made Drew’s list.

Undersized but productive college frontcourt players: The classic guy who gets underdrafted because of size concerns even though he was a great college player. The patron saint here, even though he goes further back than 2012, is Philadelphia’s P.J. Tucker, a 6-foot-5 power forward still starting for a contender 17 years into his pro career.

The only recent All-Star of this type is Golden State’s Draymond Green, but there are plenty of good picks, including two by the Grizzlies in Clarke and Tillman.

Not really a lot of guys like this in this year’s draft, but one of them is the favored second-rounder of both of us: Missouri’s Kobe Brown.

Veteran college wings: They have less of a prospect pedigree than the one-and-dones, or else they would have been one of them. And, relatedly, they usually have less athletic pop. But these players have improved over the course of multiple college seasons to turn themselves into draft prospects.

There are a lot more hits here, and part of that is that there are a lot more of them, period. More misses, too. But it’s notable that this group, since 2010, has produced two All-Stars (Miami’s Jimmy Butler, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton) and another close to home who’s on the cusp: Bane. 

There are also plenty of winning role players in this group, including former Grizzly Jae Crowder, Denver sixth man Bruce Brown and New Orleans defensive ace Herb Jones. 

Our podcast lists were full of these guys, including our respective top picks.

For Drew, that was offense-first Iowa small forward Kris Murray. For me, it was defense-first Marquette small forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper. This list also includes Drew fave Jaquez and, from my list, Xavier’s Colby Jones.

Veteran college point guards: Similar to the veteran wings. Not top prospects and usually dinged for size or athleticism questions, but players who clawed their way into the draft with multiple seasons of college production and growth.

The hit rate here might even be a little higher considering there are probably fewer of them who were drafted.

Toronto’s undrafted Fred Van Vleet and the now-retired Isaiah Thomas are All-Stars of this type, and New York’s Jalen Brunson is one in all but name. Lots of other good players, including last season’s Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and Washington starter Monte Morris. 

There’s one clear player this year who fits the type, and he was on my draft list: Houston’s Marcus Sasser, whose on-ball defense and high-volume/high-efficiency 3-point shooting seems likely to translate.

Raw but physically gifted centers: Big boys often with bigger wingspans who have perhaps been underdrafted in recent years as the game has become more perimeter focused.

Setting aside Nikola Jokic – more of a skill-based player, obviously – more than a quarter of the NBA’s current starting centers fit this type, such as New York’s Mitchell Robinson, Atlanta’s Clint Capela, Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen and, from last year’s draft, Utah’s Walker Kessler.

This year’s model: Spanish League teenager James Nnaji, a 7-footer with a 7-foot-7 wingspan and an already developed body. Nnaji is a raw rim-rocker, shot-blocker and rebounder whose physical attributes and game are each similar to another player of this type, from a little further back: Former All-NBA center DeAndre Jordan, himself once a second-round pick. 

I also like Nnaji for the Grizzlies because they could keep him in Spain for a year or so, alleviating their roster crunch.