With opening night a week away, we’re not quite done with the Grizzlies preseason. The team still has an exhibition game left, where summer acquisition Marcus Smart is set to make his first game appearance. 

Smart’s the last major active Grizzly I haven’t tackled in recent preview columns, and he’ll have his day soon. I’ll also elaborate more on the Grizzlies writ large in a final team preview column early next week. 

But, for now, let’s step back and take a wider view, with a now-annual exercise of fast thoughts and predictions on the Grizzlies and the other 29 teams. 

Marcus Smart ‘reassured’ in return to practice, Ziaire Williams talks preseason

Despite the uncertainty around Philadelphia’s trade-me-now star James Harden and the scheduled delay of the Grizzlies’ own Ja Morant, this season arrives with less chaos and uncertainty than a year ago.

Beyond the Sixers, major contenders have loaded up and seem ready to go. There have been no messy ownership shake-ups or practice-court fights. The ugliest drama is happening in Charlotte, and yes Charlotte still has an NBA team.

Even New Orleans’ Zion Williamson and Brooklyn’s Ben Simmons are reportedly healthy. For now. A carrot (65-game threshold for major awards) and a stick (new league rules limiting rest for stars) are conspiring to put the top players on the floor more often.

A rookie class led by a three-headed hydra of San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren and Portland’s Scoot Henderson promises intrigue across the standings. 

Ziaire Williams impresses in Grizzlies preseason loss to Heat

With a purportedly weak 2024 draft class further reducing the tanking incentive, every team in the NBA enters the season offering a compelling reason to watch. Well, except probably Washington. (Sorry, Tyus Jones.)

Basketball’s (almost) back, and I’m ready for it. Let’s skip a rock — make that the rock — across the surface of the league. 

Eastern Conference notes and predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks made the big move of the summer, importing All-NBA guard Damian Lillard to pair with two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, moving out All-Defense guard Jrue Holiday. But there are potential cracks in the foundation. The Bucks have three starters (Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez) over age 32, all of which have played fewer than 40 games in one of the past two seasons. Can they stay on the floor, and avoid steep decline even if they do? They’re rolling out a first-time head coach (Adrian Griffith) on a title-or-bust team. At guard, the defensive downgrade is greater than the offensive upgrade. But the real bet here is that when it matters most, the offensive upgrade will mean more. The Bucks watched Denver roll through the playoffs behind a two-man game pairing a shot-making guard (Jamal Murray) with an MVP-level big (Nikola Jokic.) In joining Lillard and Antetokounmpo, the response is clear: See and raise. 

The Boston Celtics watched this move and jumped in to poach Holiday. They’ve upgraded at center from Robert Williams III to Kristaps Porzingis and at bulldog guard from Marcus Smart to Holiday. They’ve lost some depth amid the upheaval, and their new frontcourt has as much injury risk as their old one, but they might have the best top six in the league. They’re going to have a top five defense and have three players who averaged at least 23 points last season. Pretty good. They might roll through the regular season. But can Jayson Tatum be the best player on a title team? 

For 82 games, at least, I’m betting the Cleveland Cavaliers make this a three-team race. Last year, the Cavs had the NBA’s No. 1 defense and No. 2 net rating. They won 51 games but with the fundamentals of a 55-win team. They bring back a dynamic backcourt and stifling frontcourt, all still under 30, and added three good shooters to their rotation. Can J.B. Bickerstaff win in the playoffs? We’ll find out after the first 82, of which they will win many. Don’t be shocked if this is the East’s top seed. 

The Philadelphia 76ers could make this a quartet or could slink down the standings and implode. When does Harden get dealt? With an MVP repeat unlikely, how many games does Joel Embiid play? Will P.J. Tucker turn to dust? Or maybe Embiid hits that 65-game mark, they get something decent for Harden and Tyrese Maxey breaks the 25 point a night barrier. But it feels like this team missed its best shot. 

The Miami Heat let playoff heroes you’d never heard of walk this summer in anticipation of a Lillard trade that didn’t happen. But this is the Heat and we’ll probably be watching guys named “Haywood Highsmith” and “Jamal Cain” make clutch shots deep into the spring. They’ve still got the NBA’s best head coach (Erik Spoelstra) and a rock-solid two-way duo (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo) that’s led them to the Finals twice in the past four years. That’s the hard stuff. The rest they have a track record of figuring out.

Who’s deeper than the New York Knicks? They’re probably coming off the bench with last year’s Sixth Man of the Year runner-up (Immanuel Quickley) and a Team USA World Cup starter (Josh Hart). If maniacal head coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t start wearing out his welcome, they could be a regular-season surprise. But with apologies to Jalen Brunson (somehow Team USA’s starting point guard) and Julius Randle (somehow a two-time All-NBA forward), their best players aren’t good enough to lead a real contender. Still a trade away.

If the Sixers or Heat falter, there will be an opening above the play-in line. The Atlanta Hawks are probably the safest bet to fill the void. They’ll get a full season with head coach Quin Snyder, creative enough to shake this team from its recent mediocrity. There’s enough defense around point guard Trae Young to mitigate the damage that he causes. It could all come together, but … 

Fourth-quarter comeback falls short as Grizzlies lose to Hawks

I prefer the Indiana Pacers as a break-through candidate. Maybe this is a Tyrese Haliburton over Young bias, which I hold strongly. Haliburton played 56 games last season and the Pacers went 28-28 with him on the floor, 7-19 without him. They played at the league’s fifth-fasted pace and added a couple of athletic forwards this summer who can run with their point guard. Former Denver super-sub Bruce Brown makes winning plays, and he’s a Pacer now. 

Now we enter the “do we blow it up?” zone in the East. 

The Toronto Raptors lost their starting point guard (Fred Van Vleet) and have a first-time head coach (former Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajakovic). But they had a top five defense after the All-Star break last season, having added center Jakob Poetl at the trade deadline. The defensive infrastructure is strong and maybe Rajakovic can add some wrinkles to the offense. Or maybe this team won’t be able to score and forwards Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby get dealt. 

Mikal Bridges averaged 26 points as the Brooklyn Nets’ go-to guy after coming from Phoenix in the Kevin Durant trade, and he looked great in the World Cup. But how good can you be when Mikal Bridges is your first option? The Nets went 12-15 with Bridges in the lineup, and didn’t really follow up with get-better moves this summer. Are they building or just putting off a rebuild?

At least there’s some mystery with Toronto and Brooklyn. The Chicago Bulls have just grown stale. They had a top five defense last season, and I do not know how that happened. Maybe they could do it again if they play Alex Caruso and summer-signing Jevon Carter together a lot. That pairing could destroy offenses, the opposition’s and the Bulls’ own. DeMar DeRozan can have some out-of-body-experience nights from mid-range, fun to watch unless it’s against your team. But it’s time to shake this up. 

People want the Orlando Magic to be a breakthrough team, but first can they get a guard who can both create and shoot? 

If Cade Cunningham can finally stay healthy, the Detroit Pistons are ready to take a step forward. This team won 17 games last season. A massive leap makes them just run-of-the-mill bad. Count on it.

The vibes around the Charlotte Hornets are … bad. The vibes are bad. Somewhere amid this mess LaMelo Ball will run some zippy fastbreaks and some playoff team will rescue useful forward PJ Washington at the trade deadline. 

Lawyers argue if state’s ‘stand your ground’ law applies in Morant civil suit

Fantasy players take note: Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole will shoot a lot for the Washington Wizards. Tyus Jones will prove he can be a starting point guard for a few months before he’s traded to a better team to be a backup again. You can talk yourself into the Wizards being frisky, but this team now knows where it’s at, and where it’s going, which is as high in next summer’s draft as possible.

Playoff teams:

• Boston Celtics (56-26)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29)
• Milwaukee Bucks (52-30)
• New York Knicks (46-36)
• Philadelphia 76ers (44-38)
• Miami Heat (44-38)

Play-in teams:

• Indiana Pacers (42-40)
• Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
• Toronto Raptors (40-42)
• Brooklyn Nets (37-45)

Lottery teams:

• Orlando Magic (36-46)
• Chicago Bulls (35-47)
• Detroit Pistons (31-51)
• Charlotte Hornets (24-58)
• Washington Wizards (22-60)

Western Conference notes and predictions

I loved the Denver Nuggets in this space last season. Broken clocks, etc. On their post-title victory tour, an essentially six-man core is down to five with super sub Brown gone and no notable veteran additions. Denver proved that its starting lineup is elite, but it also got at least 62 games from each of those top six and had them all for every playoff game. Already down a man, that fortune seems unlikely to hold. But they have perhaps the NBA’s best player in Nikola Jokic and best home court advantage. They coasted late in the regular season. The top seed matters and will come harder this season. Here’s betting they won’t coast again.

The Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers all boast veteran superstars who have led recent title teams. You tell me how many games Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play this season and I’ll tell you how these teams will finish. You tell me who’s available throughout the playoffs and I’ll tell you which is Denver’s top threat. 

Except add one more team to the same list: Your Memphis Grizzlies. They don’t have a title-proven superstar, but the gestalt of a Morant/Desmond Bane/Jaren Jackson Jr. triumvirate now entering their prime, with a top five defense, packs the same upside. And while younger, they also come with the same questions: How many games are they really getting out of Morant, whose absences are unlikely to be restricted to the first 25, and Adams, who has been treated very cautiously in preseason?

I wanted to be bullish on Phoenix. I think Devin Booker is set up for a monster season, but the depth, durability and defense are at least one weak link too many. If they overcome or correct them all, they can win the West. 

This Warriors core can’t go on forever, but remember that they only got 56 games from Curry last season. Only 37 from Andrew Wiggins. Only seven from Gary Payton II. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody finally take a step forward. They’re deep. They won’t take the road for granted this time. They could win the West. 

The Lakers? Yeah fine, they could win the West too. Let’s move on.

Even if those five hold, there’s one more spot above the play-in line, with at least six real candidates. Fool me twice, but I like the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels is a hellacious young wing combo. Head coach Chris Finch will make the pieces fit better this time. They need Old Pal Mike Conley to hold up. 

The Sacramento Kings are destined to fall back after finishing third last season on a near perfect record of health, but what was a league-best offense should still keep them in the black in the regular season. 

Herrington: Guessing the Grizzlies’ small forward pecking order

The Los Angeles Clippers are too old and brittle, the Oklahoma City Thunder too young and coltish. Thunder rookie Holmgren looks great in preseason, but hasn’t played a real NBA game yet and as thin as he is, they may be thinner behind him. It feels too late for the Clippers and a year early for the Thunder. Either could crash the party if things break right. The Clippers are promising to take the regular-season seriously this time, but I’d still say OKC is more likely.

I don’t feel the same about the Dallas Mavericks or New Orleans Pelicans. The vibes in Dallas aren’t great, and it sounds like they could be relying on three first- or second-year players in the rotation. None of them are a Wemby or Chet. The defense might stink. Luka Doncic might get restless. 

New Orleans? I’ll believe it when I see it. No point guard. No center who fits with Zion Williamson, and, yeah, Williamson might be the center who fits, but that means staying on the court. 

The Utah Jazz got too good too fast, but this coming draft isn’t persuasive. They’ll try to build the talent they have and trade into better, not tank. Keep an eye on Keyonte George, a rookie dark horse. 

The Houston Rockets, with dearly departed Dillon Brooks, are fascinating. So many really interesting, potentially good young players. This season is about creating some structure with a couple of vets and a new head coach (Ime Udoka), and sorting out what they have. It will be worth watching. 

And this season, “worth watching” will extend all the way to the bottom, where the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers will feature rookie hotshots Wembanyama and Henderson, respectively. Enjoy it early. Bad teams have a tendency to grow dull over time. 

Playoff teams:

• Denver Nuggets (55-27)
• Golden State Warriors (52-30)
• Phoenix Suns (51-31)
• Memphis Grizzlies (49-33)
• Los Angeles Lakers (48-34)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (45-37)

Play-in teams:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (43-39)
• Sacramento Kings (42-40)
• Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
• Dallas Mavericks (41-41)

Lottery teams:

• New Orleans Pelicans (40-42)
• Utah Jazz (36-46)
• Houston Rockets (33-49)
• Portland Trail Blazers (26-56)
• San Antonio Spurs (24-58)

Playoff and award predictions

Again, who’s healthy come spring, and who stays that way, will sort out the West. In the East, even though Miami snuck through last year and Cleveland has upside, it’s hard to see it not coming down to Boston and Milwaukee.

What’s most unstoppable at the highest, hardest level? Murray-Jokic proved it. Lillard-Antetokounmpo seems likely. The same prediction only got halfway home a year ago. Let’s try it again.

Grizzlies notebook: ‘Clickbait rankings,’ a DPOY tag team

Finals: Bucks over Nuggets. 

MVP: Devin Booker (Let’s get wild. Safe pick: Nikola Jokic)

Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama

Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Mobley

Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle

Most Improved: Desmond Bane