Believe it or not, we’re still five weeks away from the real action of the NBA offseason. It takes a long time to arrive when your team misses the postseason entirely.

Grizzlies fans may not have to quite wait for the NBA Draft, slated for June 26-27 in a two-night format this year, for some movement on the team’s roster. The two biggest draft-related trades of team VP Zach Kleiman’s tenure – the deal that swapped Jonas Valanciunas and Steven Adams while moving up to select Ziaire Williams and last summer’s trade for Marcus Smart – were both agreed to and became public in the days before the draft. 

But it’s unlikely anything of note will happen before draft week. 

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This week, then, let’s reset the team’s and league’s landscape following the recent draft lottery, in which the Grizzlies came away with the ninth pick in next month’s draft. 

This week we’ll skim the surface of potential draftees, potential trade or (less likely) free agency targets and the decisions the Grizzlies face about players they already have. Deeper dives on all will follow in the weeks ahead. 

But first …

Mike Conley and the West’s solid final four

Shoutout to Grizzlies great Mike Conley, whose reload 3-pointer and steal in the fourth quarter were huge plays in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 20-point Game 7 comeback on Sunday night, on the road against the defending champs. 

Conley is still eight wins away from getting an NBA championship ring, but it seems very much within his and the Wolves’ grasp.

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Minnesota moves on to face the Dallas Mavericks in the West finals, but projecting into next season, this spring’s West final four — Minnesota, Dallas, Denver and Oklahoma City – all seem well set up to be as good or better next season.

The only notable players among all four teams not under contract next season are Nuggets’ 3-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has a player option on his deal, and Mavericks 3-and-D-and-dunk forward Derrick Jones Jr., a free agent. Both seem likely to be back.

The only notable player who seems a clear threat to decline is the soon-to-be-37-year-old Conley.

This is a strong top-four going into next season. The Grizzlies’ charge will be to crack this group, and it won’t be easy.

It was a fitting finale for the Thunder. Their sudden ascension this season has mirrored that of the “We Here” Grizzlies two years ago: A leap into the conference’s top two and the youngest team in the playoffs. The team’s downhill-attacking lead guard crashing MVP ballots. Group camaraderie post-game interviews. And then a six-game, second-round exit to a lower seed with a bigger individual star. 

Grizzlies Podcast: Updates from the NBA lottery and combine

Once you arrive, the year-to-year can get bumpy. Nothing is guaranteed. The Grizzlies found that out. 

Which luxury tax lines are the Grizzlies willing to cross?

The biggest remaining question governing the Grizzlies offseason, now that we know where their draft pick landed, is how much are they willing to spend on their roster? 

With Desmond Bane joining Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. on a lucrative second contract next season, the Grizzlies have now left the NBA’s salary cap line in the rearview mirror. It’s barely visible back there. 

At the moment, the team’s payroll is set to exceed the NBA’s luxury tax line for the first time since Jerry West ran the team. Are they willing to stay there? If so, there are now two more mile markers ahead, ones West’s teams didn’t have to contemplate: Two additional tax lines, which the NBA is calling “aprons,” each of which comes with more onerous penalties and more restrictive roster-management rules. 

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These lines won’t be officially set until the league’s calendar flips in early July. But these are the most recent projections issued to teams: 

• Luxury tax: $171.3 million
• First apron: $178.7 million
• Second apron: $189.5 million

Where do the Grizzlies currently stand?

By my estimate, the Grizzlies are at about $178.2 million right now. This includes Luke Kennard’s $14.8 million team option next season, a salary for the No. 9 pick and “dead money” for the previously waived Kennedy Chandler but doesn’t include a salary hold for free agent Lamar Stevens or a salary slot for either of the team’s second-round draft picks.

That’s right under the first apron. But note the words “projections” and “estimate” in the above paragraphs. It’s so close that it’s hard to say for sure right now. If nothing else changes, I’m also assuming the Grizzlies would roster their draft pick at No. 39, carrying the full allowed 15 players. This would push them over the first apron even if they weren’t already there. 

If the Grizzlies want to operate under that first apron, they’ll probably need to either decline their option on Kennard (perhaps to let him walk, perhaps to re-sign him to a longer deal at a lower starting salary) or cut salary elsewhere via trade or (less likely) waive players and “stretch” their contracts over multiple seasons. 

But who says the Grizzlies want to get under that first apron?

Team decision-makers have long said they’d be willing to be a taxpayer to compete when the time comes. That time is here. And Kleiman has only said he’s been given no hard line he can’t cross on the player payroll front.

Until there’s clear information otherwise, the operating assumption in this space will be that the Grizzlies are willing to go beyond the first apron but unwilling to cross the second. If that’s the case, then the team’s budget ceiling is likely wherever that second apron lands. Even if this is the case, the team may still look to cut salary, not to stay under the first apron but to open up more paths to maneuver under the second. 

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After all, the Grizzlies have been clear they want to add a rotation-level center to the roster. If they keep Kennard at his current salary, don’t fill the center role with their top draft pick and don’t cut salary (and free roster spots) elsewhere, it’s difficult to see how they accomplish that. 

Even if the Grizzlies are willing to enter uncharted (by this franchise) salary territory, something is still going to give.

Lottery fallout: Donovan Clingan landing spots and trade-up possibilities

The Atlanta Hawks jumping up nine spots to nab the top pick in the draft was a considerable shake-up, one that helped push the Grizzlies one rung lower than what had been their most mathematically likely landing spot.

The Hawks were already considered one of the league’s most likely teams to make a major trade, with a potential break-up of backcourt Trae Young and DeJounte Murray. Getting the top pick only supercharges trade scenarios already being speculated around the league. 

The Grizzlies wouldn’t be in the market for either guard, but the Hawks do have two very useful centers under contract in veteran Clint Capela and up-and-comer Onyeka Okongwu. Capela was considered a likely trade candidate even before the Hawks jumped up. If they select not-quite-consensus top prospect Alex Sarr, a French center, at No. 1, then that makes it even more likely one of the incumbent centers will be dealt.

The draft lottery result could impact the Grizzlies’ center search in two ways: By altering which rookie centers will still be available at No. 9 and, in the Hawks’ case, by shifting what veteran centers are going to be available on the trade market.

Both of these factors could be tied to where Connecticut center Donovan Clingan goes. The People’s Choice (it’s less certain he’d be the Grizzlies) seems unlikely to last to pick No. 9 and there’s been some reporting (to the degree that word applies to draft rumors) that he’s likely to go in the top three. 

Grizzlies podcast: Draft lottery preview

But if Clingan gets past Washington at No. 2, the rest of the teams before the Grizzlies pick are pretty well-stocked at the position: Houston (No. 3) with emerging star Alperen Sengun and recent acquisition Adams, San Antonio (Nos. 4 and 8) with reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama, Detroit (No. 5) with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, Charlotte (No. 6) with Mark Williams and Nick Richards and Portland (No. 7) with Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams and last season’s two-way find Duop Reath. 

Houston’s an interesting case. Clingan’s game is often compared to Adams. Does trading for Adams preclude drafting Clingan? Or does it rather suggest the Rockets value that particular style of center and would jump a chance for a more permanent version? 

Clingan going to Houston probably wouldn’t do anything for the Grizzlies. But if the Pistons, Hornets or Blazers decided Clingan was better than what they had and drafted him, that could open up new trade possibilities. I don’t think the Grizzlies would have any interest in Ayton or Robert Williams, but the rest of those teams’ current centers could be of interest. 

Or, if Clingan lasts past pick No. 3, the lack of a clear center need among the next teams to pick could open up a trade path for someone else to get Clingan. This is considered a weak draft. Next year is considered a stronger one. It seems unlikely many teams will trade 2025 picks to move up in the 2024 draft. But the Grizzlies, focused on winning now and likely to have a lower pick in 2025, could be an exception. The team has trade access to all of its future firsts. 

Again, we do not know if the Grizzlies prize Clingan as much as many fans do. But if they did consider him (or someone else) their top target, moving up in this draft seems a viable path. 

Draft combine notes and mock draft roundup

Under new NBA rules, more higher-rated prospects than ever participated in the NBA’s annual pre-draft combine, not only in the measurements portion but in athletic drills. Drew Hill was there. 

This is a good development, but while the measurements are essential information they shouldn’t alone determine much, and the athletic drills even less. 

There was nothing on the measurement front among potential candidates at No. 9 that was all that surprising. 

Clingan and Zach Edey are huge. Duke center Kyle Filipowski has the kind of subpar wingspan and standing reach that limits his at-the-rim defense. Lottery-level wing prospects Stephon Castle and Ron Holland (the latter former Grizzlies executive John Hollinger’s top draft prospect) have all the physical and athletic markers to underscore the sense that they can be strong multi-positional defenders. Ostensible combo forward Matas Buzelis has the size to play more in the frontcourt if he fills out. 

Kentucky guards Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are small and smaller, respectively. But Sheppard’s dimensions are similar to Stephen Curry, another sweet-shooting combo guard who’s turned out okay. Sheppard isn’t a supernatural offensive talent like that, but he scored well in athletic drills to go along with strong defensive production in college. 

Tennessee forward Dalton Knecht also scored well in athletic drills and is several inches taller than Sheppard. So why doesn’t his college play show the same kind of defensive impact? Perhaps because basketball is a free-flowing, reactive game. Players don’t compete in drills. They compete in games. I’d keep this in mind when noting that Edey did better in drills than Clingan. The game film suggests Clingan’s defense will be more versatile at the NBA level, and at least somewhat less match-up dependent.

Still, Edey seems to be picking up steam as someone to consider in the lottery. And I think that’s more than valid. My read all season is that Edey’s more likely to be a starting (if somewhat situational) NBA center than some kind of sideshow.

For what it’s worth, here’s what the most prominent media mock drafts have the Grizzlies doing at No. 9, as of Sunday:

• ESPN: Stephon Castle 
• The Ringer: Ron Holland
• The Athletic: Holland
• Bleacher Report: Holland
• Yahoo: Reed Sheppard
• CBS Sports: Donavan Clingan

Rumor of the week: A coming Cleveland crack-up? 

The playoff elimination of the Cleveland Cavaliers came with the strong suggestion that change is coming for that franchise. 

There was some kind of rumor last week about the Grizzlies as a potential trade candidate for star Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell, which had the more obsessive corners of Grizzlies social media in a tizzy for a couple of days. This is almost certainly not going to happen.

A more fruitful subject of speculation: Cavs’ center Jarrett Allen, a potential trade target I first broached in a Grizzlies Mailbag column back in March. 

The current Cavs core is made up of two talented small guards (Mitchell and Darius Garland) and two big men (Allen and Evan Mobley). There’s a pretty strong suggestion that each of these duos could be broken up, with Garland and Allen the most likely to be dealt.

Should the Grizzlies be interested in Allen if he’s available? I say yes. Allen is a 26-year-old center on a reasonable contract for two more seasons who is a high-level rebounder, paint defender and play finisher. I think he’d be a great fit alongside the Grizzlies’ three stars in a more conventional, defense-oriented starting lineup, of the kind the team thrived with when Adams was in the same role. 

And the Grizzlies would seem equipped to make a competitive offer. Marcus Smart is nearly an exact salary match. Smart and the No. 9 pick is a starting point. Potentially a finishing one. If the Cavs are dealing Garland and looking to win next season, Smart would be a good immediate fit. If the Grizzlies didn’t want to include Smart or the Cavs didn’t want to receive him, a trade could also probably be built around Kennard and one of the Grizzlies’ mid-sized contracts (Santi Aldama, John Konchar, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia). The tax implications and restrictions will come into play in polishing off any trade. 

In either of these scenarios, the win-now Cavs are getting more than just a salary match along with a lottery pick. They’d be getting a player (Smart or Kennard) who would play a major role for them next season.

One guesses, in this theoretical scenario, Cleveland would ask for more. That might be a young player (Vince Williams Jr., GG Jackson II – let the wincing commence) or additional draft capital. Again, the Grizzlies have access to all of their future first-round picks. Would they include a protected first-rounder in the more highly touted 2025 draft, along with No. 9 this summer and a good player, to get Allen? 

These scenarios require a major three-part investment: Of limited player payroll space, of the quality of players/picks that would likely need to go out and of giving a major role to a traditional center. 

Would the Grizzlies want to make this level of investment, in all three of these areas, for this kind of player? Their answer could be “no” on any of them. If it were “yes” to all three, this is a call worth making.