Thursday, Oct. 31, the last day of early voting, could be the high-water mark for balloting in the Nov. 5 presidential general election.

If the last four presidential general elections in Shelby County are any guide, a majority of the total votes cast — early, absentee and Election Day — will have come during the 14-day early voting period.

Four years ago, 78.3% of the total Shelby County votes came during early voting.

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The previous four presidential general elections posted similar percentages across the county.

The Shelby County Election Commission’s most recent early turnout numbers show the start of what could be a three-day spike ending the voting period.

A total of 241,371 Shelby County voters cast early or absentee ballots through Tuesday, Oct. 29, according to figures from the Tennessee Secretary of State’s office.

The Shelby County turnout so far is the highest of any of the 95 counties in the state.

• Statewide, the early and absentee turnout has been 1,875,298 through Tuesday.
• That’s down from 1,962,927 on that in 2020.
• But the statewide total is more than the 1,403,054 at this point in 2016.

The daily total of 19,768 early and absentee votes cast in Shelby County Tuesday is the second highest daily turnout so far of the early voting period – after the 23,042 on Oct. 16 opening day.

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About a third of the early and absentee votes cast in the 2020 election, which occurred about nine months into the COVID-19 pandemic, were in the first three days of early voting.

In 2008, 2012 and 2016, turnout spiked in the last three days of the voting period.

The 2020 election also saw a spike in the number of absentee ballots cast in Shelby County – 27,435.

The Election Commission counted 11,610 valid requests for absentee ballots by the Tuesday, Oct. 29, deadline to request such a ballot. 

Into Wednesday evening, election officials were working their way through additional requests where it was unclear at first glance if they were valid requests.

Either way, the number of absentee ballots will probably be less than half of the absentee total in 2020.

Through Tuesday, a total of 7,003 absentee ballots had been cast.

Four years ago at the same point in early voting, 22,279 absentee ballots were cast countywide.

Those completed ballots will continue to come in up to the 7 p.m., when polls close on Election Day.

The ballots must be delivered by the U.S. Postal Service, and Tennessee law mandates a 7 p.m. delivery deadline.

Some states have laws that allow mail-in ballots to come in later as long as they are postmarked by the deadline. Some states also allow for dropping off absentee ballots by hand in drop boxes.

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State law allows neither of those options.

The Tennessee Legislature has changed state law to make the deadline to request absentee ballots 10 days before Election Day instead of the current seven days. The change takes effect with the 2026 elections.

Until that happens, Shelby County Elections Administrator Linda Phillips says it is likely some absentee ballots will continue to arrive after the deadline, and thus won’t be counted, something she has seen in several elections over the last four years.

The 2020 presidential general election saw the USPS make service cutbacks. It removed mailboxes and machinery for the rapid processing of mail at mail centers, including the one here in Memphis.

The election commission is again working with the Bartlett Post Office, at 2966 Elmore Park Road, as it did in 2020, to get last-minute absentee ballots delivered on time.

The Bartlett facility is the point where mailed absentee ballots are gathered for two deliveries to the commission on Election Day, the last one expected at 6:45 p.m.

Absentee voters can take their completed ballots to the Bartlett mail center where USPS workers will deliver them for counting.