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The folks in charge of predicting the weather in Memphis are worried.

That’s because the storms bearing down on Memphis on Wednesday, April 2, are expected to be at the top of the National Weather Service’s risk scale, which goes from 1 (marginal) to 5 (high risk).

This is the first time the forecast has hit a 5 since 2023, said John Sirmon, a meteorologist with the NWS Memphis office. That was when tornadoes hit the Covington area, killing one person and destroying a school.

With this level of risk, the local NWS office will be manned 24 hours a day by teams working in shifts for the next few days, Sirmon said.

“These high risks for the Mid-South don’t come around too often, maybe once every two or three years,” he said. “We’re facing the threat of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds for this evening.”

When asked if he was worried, Erik Proseus of local website MemphisWeather.Net was more blunt: “Yes, I am,” he said. “There’s a fairly significant risk for tornadoes along with high wind and large hail tonight right here in the Memphis metro.”

The brunt of the storm is expected to hit around 6 p.m., Sirmon said, although a thunderstorm could strike earlier than that.

Although the official high-risk warning goes through Sunday morning, much of it will likely have hit the area by midnight tonight, Sirmon said.

When the major part of the storm hits, it could spawn hail up to two inches in diameter as well as three inches of rainfall, strong winds and possible tornadoes.

Sirmon particularly noted the possibility of flooding from all the rain that is expected, which could total eight inches through the weekend as more poor weather is expected through Sunday.

“Just an inch of rain in the suburbs can lead to problems, but we could be looking at several inches just this evening. Over the next several days, we could be looking at up to eight inches or so,” he said.

Strong wind gusts earlier Wednesday were already causing scattered power outages around the city, but Memphis Light, Gas and Water CEO Doug McGowen said that the utility is prepared for severe weather and outages, whether from tornadoes or from rain-saturated ground coupled with high winds.

McGowen also encouraged residents to pay careful attention to the weather.

“This is a dangerous weather pattern coming. Not severe, dangerous,” McGowen said.

The Shelby County Emergency Management officials offered other tips to stay safe, including:

• Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts, such as a NOAA weather radio.
• Ensure your storm drains are clear of debris.
• Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwaters.
• Watch for flying debris, including tree limbs and street signs that may be torn loose by strong winds.
• Know the safe space in your home or office. In a tornado, stay in an interior room away from windows. Sturdy closets are also safer spaces.

Reporter Samuel Hardiman contributed to this story.