Everyone’s happy the NBA preseason has shrunk. Not long ago, eight games was the norm. Now every team plays between four and six. The result is fewer games that don’t count, padded out by players who won’t be on regular season rosters; more air into an 82-game real season that needed extra rest time. Win-win, right?

But maybe, this time, the Grizzlies could have used a little more preseason.

Over the weekend, we provided a look at what to expect from all 30 NBA teams. But, let's do a much more extensive evaluation of the Grizzlies.

Memphis enters the 2018-2019 season with a 15-man roster containing six brand-new names and only four players who spent more than half of last season in the team’s rotation. It’s a team with a head coach guiding a team out of the gate for the first time, that’s trying to craft a new style of play for itself, and which entered the preseason with only two starting positions set in stone.

The Grizzlies used five different starting lineups in their five preseason games, and mostly not because they were just biding time until the regular season. Their final two games, meant to be a kind of dress rehearsal for opening night? They got smacked around.

For the most part this preseason, the Grizzlies showed little ability to control the pace or defend the three-point line and pretty much no ability to hold their own on the backboards or defend without fouling.

Approaching the eve of the season, we’re no closer than we were three weeks ago to answering the essential question: Can this Grizzlies team be any good?

Maybe that’s appropriate. Two of the team’s three preseason losses came against the Houston Rockets, last season’s best regular-season team, which played close to its normal rotation for much of the two games. The Rockets averaged more than 50 three-point attempts in the preseason. They are the last team you’d want to play if you’re still building defensive chemistry among a bunch of players unused to sharing the floor. The real season is an 82-game journey. The Grizzlies won’t be the only team that needs some time to find itself.

There were some encouraging signs over the past couple of weeks.

Coming off heel surgery, Mike Conley was healthy and effective, connecting from deep and zipping through the lane.

Chandler Parsons – Chandler Parsons! – was the most stable Grizzly in exhibition play. Parsons was the only player to start every game, was the most mobile and most effective he’s ever been in a Grizzlies uniform, and notched a couple of meaningful milestones: He played both halves of a back-to-back pair of games for only the second time with the team. He ended the preseason by spending 26:44 on the floor, a new Grizzlies high.

Jaren Jackson Jr. had highs and lows, which itself is good for a just-turned-19-year-old rookie likely to be the youngest player in the NBA this season in any team’s regular rotation. Jackson scored in double-digits in four of five games, shooting 67 percent from the floor and 5-9 from 3-point range. He built on his summer play by offering further confirmation that he’s arrived as an immediate NBA 3-point threat, and suggested he may be ahead of schedule at creating his own offense, both in the low post and as a face-up threat. Yes, his turnover and foul rates were very high. This is to be expected of a rookie big man, but still a factor that likely limits his first-year impact.

All of these factors suggest that while the Grizzlies’ offense probably has a pretty firm ceiling this season, the team has a good chance of finding it.

Once the games count, expect Conley to shoot more and Marc Gasol to shoot better. Conley averaged 15.8 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes in 2016-2017, his last full season, and a little more than that in his 12 games last season. He was at 14.7 per 36 in preseason, and probably four or five minutes under what will be normal rotation minutes. Gasol was bad in preseason, shooting 26 percent from the floor. Last season’s 42 percent was a career low. Here’s betting it remains one. Getting Jackson more open looks from beyond the arc – a potentially major weapon – needs to be high on the to-do list.

The most important work is figuring out roles on the wing, where preseason searching suggests limited progress has been made. The team has a long way to go to figure out how to blend Kyle Anderson’s unusual skill set into the mix. MarShon Brooks was blockbuster off the bench once and less memorable the rest of the time. Who knows what he will be. And what’s the scoring guard pecking order among Garrett Temple (solid then injured), Wayne Selden (inconsistent, but with two big games serving as a needed reminder of his ability), and Dillon Brooks (disappointing)? Do bigger perimeter lineups create more room for all of them, or do they get squeezed by a move to smaller backcourts, such as a Conley-Shelvin Mack pairing that looked pretty good in the preseason finale?

About That Defense

Much more troubling in the preseason was the Grizzlies defense, which was supposed to return to being the team’s strength.

Given the lack of dynamic individual scorers or volume 3-point shooting, it seems unlikely that the Grizzlies can be an above-average offense, so they’ll probably need to be in the black at the other end of the floor. Is that possible?

In the preseason, only Boston – good company, I guess – surrendered free-throw attempts at a higher rate. And only Atlanta – not so much – fouled more. It’s preseason, but this is a continuation of last season, where the Grizzlies were league-worst by both measures. Bending the roster toward more hoops-smart, defensive-oriented players was supposed to fix this.

The Grizzlies also gave up more 3-point attempts than any team in the preseason, and were near the bottom in opponent 3-point accuracy. Again, they played Houston twice, so put an asterisk on this, but keep an eye on it.

Over the summer, the team added length and smarts and willingness. But this isn’t the NBA of a decade ago. Perhaps defense in a “pace-and-space” era is as much about quickness as toughness, and maybe the Grizzlies – seemingly one of the NBA’s least-athletic rosters – don’t have enough of it to cover a spread floor against elite offenses. They need on-a-string-cohesion to overcome the limits of foot speed, and that doesn’t happen overnight.

At the backbone of the team defense, Gasol again looked a step slower against a league that’s gotten a step faster. The best defensive talent on the roster is probably Jackson, whose upside at that end has no ceiling. But rookies are rarely good defenders, especially ones who are barely 19 years old. Has a teenager ever been an impact NBA defender? Jackson seemed a beat – not a step – slow in the preseason. His reaction time has to adjust to the NBA after a season in the Big Ten. Is it possible that the 2018-2019 Grizzlies are a team with a past and future Defensive Player of the Year but neither is particularly good in this moment?

Gasol and Jackson and general team quickness may be at the core of what could be the Grizzlies’ biggest defensive problem: Putting a period at the end of their defensive possessions.

Rebounding is an arena of marginal but meaningful distinctions. The Grizzlies grabbed a little better than 45 percent of available rebounds in the preseason, worst among NBA teams in exhibition play and worse than any team has performed in the regular season since the 2009-2010 Warriors. Right, it’s preseason. It won’t be that bad. But it’s hard to see it not being a weakness.

The Grizzlies gave up more than 12 offensive rebounds per game, a disastrous number if it carries over into the regular season. Against Indiana, with Gasol sitting and JaMychal Green starting out of position at center, the problem seemed to derive from a deficit of brawn. But most of the time it seemed to be a quickness issue: The other teams were simply faster to the ball.

The Grizzlies ranked 24 out of 30 teams in rebounding last season. Can they be any better? Last season, only three teams – Cleveland, New Orleans, and Milwaukee – were in the bottom 10 on the boards and still made the playoffs. All three had Top 10 offenses.

The New Style?

To stay in the playoff race, this Grizzlies team is going to have to execute its way to competence on both ends of the floor. They won’t overwhelm with starpower or athleticism or shooting or – despite recent rhetoric – physicality.

A renewed organizational commitment to team defense is a sound strategy, even if the results haven’t really shown up on the floor yet. But the franchise has been really hard-selling “grit and grind,” including in bright lights in TV promos that debuted last week. It’s a rousing mantra, but it has to be something you do; it can’t just be something you say.

A more realistic franchise throwback this season might be Hubie Brown’s “10-man rotation.” Depth causes complications when it comes to fine-tuning roles. But it’s an asset the team will need to use to its advantage over the long trek of a six-month, 82-game season.

It’s hard to know what reasonable expectations really are for the 2018-2019 Grizzlies. The team has touted a return to the playoffs, which is possible. And as a result, I suppose some have set that expectation. But almost all teams talk up best-case scenarios in the summer and early fall. I think only the Atlanta Hawks have essentially said this season, “Look, we all know what’s up, OK?” Even the Sacramento Kings are indulging the pretense of competitiveness.

It’s best to focus on a team’s deeds, not just the words of its decision-makers. And the Grizzlies are operating on dual tracks. They made clear moves to shore up the team’s competitive floor and give the team a shot at returning to the playoffs if they catch the right breaks. They also kept a firm grip on the future. That’s what the multi-season acquisitions of Jackson and 25-year-old Kyle Anderson are about. When the pain of last season became unavoidable, it also became necessary, even if not all could see it, or were willing to. The injection of hope that is Jaren Jackson Jr. made it worth it.

One quiet reason to strive for competitive play this season is to help – or, more bluntly, to minimize the unavoidable damage to – the longer-term work to come. Short version: They owe a protected first-round pick to Boston. Better to pay up next summer at one price than to risk paying a far greater price down the road.

The Grizzlies aren’t necessarily going to be bad again this season. But they won’t be great. The playoffs are a worthy goal for which to strive, and not an unobtainable one. But it’s a longshot, and everybody knows it.

The space this franchise finds itself in can be awkward, even unsatisfying. If you consume enough NBA media outside the Memphis market you will find that it’s particularly so for those who resent having to think about a team – and a small-market one, no less – that can’t win a title and yet isn’t going all-in for a draft pick.

“Move the Boston pick” is not a rallying cry. It does not carry the lift of a driving dream. But the Grizzlies’ ship of state steered into a corner, and there’s only one direct way out.

Is it possible these now-dual tracks diverge this season, forcing a more firm choice in direction? Sure. In one path, that would mean leaning into losing for a roster, front office, and fan-base that has no appetite for another round of so-called “tanking” so soon. What that could otherwise entail is a different column, worth holding – yes, you can do this – until it’s something more than a purely theoretical exercise. On the other end – a pivot to immediate goals in the face of a real playoff race – the results would be less dramatic. Tinkering. The team’s long-term assets are either too good or too meager to be meaningful currency.

The good news for the Grizzlies is that while the barrier to playoff entry in the West still seems higher than in the East, it sure feels like the bar is lowering by the day. The San Antonio Spurs have now lost all four of their best perimeter defenders from last season’s team, one of them their starting point guard (Dejounte Murray, to a season-ending injury), with his second-year understudy (Derrick White) also on the shelf for an extended injury absence. The Oklahoma City Thunder have their superstar centerpiece (Russell Westbrook) coming off a late knee surgery and their best defender (Andre Roberson) suffering a serious setback from his own injury recovery. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in total chaos right now. The Portland Trailblazers have greeted a post-playoff-sweep malaise by making their supporting cast even younger and more uncertain, with break-it-up trade rumors starting to simmer. That’s four of last season’s eight West playoff teams.

The Grizzlies enter the season mostly healthy, but they’re fragile. Some rocky preseason play will not be this team’s biggest setback. Over the past five seasons, the Grizzlies have averaged 33 games a season without both Conley and Gasol on the floor. They need to cut that number in half this season to have even a wisp of a chance. The best version of this Grizzlies team might well be a playoff-bound one, but it will take some quick, hard work and plenty of luck to get there.

Seven Deadly Grizzlies Predictions

1. Opening night starting lineup: Mike Conley-Garrett Temple-Chandler Parsons-JaMychal Green-Marc Gasol.

2. While Temple will get the most frequent call, five different players will get starts at scoring guard.

3. The combination of 100 made 3s and 100 blocked shots in a season has been accomplished 19 times by 14 different players (including Marc Gasol last season), and never by a rookie. Jaren Jackson Jr. will become the first.

4. Jackson will end the season atop a tight cluster as the team’s third-leading scorer and will just squeak onto the All-Rookie first team.

5. Mike Conley will resume his place as the team’s leading scorer, but down at 18 points a game rather than the north-of-20 he notched two seasons ago.

6. Chandler Parsons will have his best season in a Grizzlies uniform, with new team highs in appearances, minutes, and scoring average. But given the team’s depth and ongoing concerns about managing Parsons’ workload, the team will tap the brakes on preseason bravado about Parsons’ usage. Kyle Anderson will eventually take over the regular starting spot at small forward.

7. I spoiled this in the previous NBA Preview piece, but the Grizzlies will remain mathematically alive in the Western Conference playoff race heading into April but will fall several games short, finishing at 38-44.

NBA Award and Post-Season Predictions

Because one must:

MVP: Let’s play process of elimination. For the most part, I think a repeat winner is unlikely. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are out. Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant could take it if one or the other suddenly busts out a career-best season, but odds are they cancel each other out. The most interesting longshots are Kyrie Irving (if Boston has the NBA’s top regular season record) or Joel Embiid (if Philly crashes the East’s top two). But I think it comes down to four most likely candidates: Lebron James with a career make-good if the Lakers crack the West’s top four. Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis if their respective teams do the same and their stat lines overwhelm. Kawhi Leonard if he makes it all the way back to pre-injury form and takes Toronto back to the top of the East. My pick: Antetokounmpo.

Rookie of the Year: I think this is probably an expected two -player race between Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic. Trae Young will put up the kind of counting stats to win, but on a truly horrible team. My favorite deep sleeper is Miles Bridges, who I think can be a double-digit scorer and crowd-energizer for a Hornets team that could crack the playoffs. The bet here is that Ayton has the best stat line, but Doncic is close, and on a better team with a playing style that’s more voter-friendly. My pick: Doncic.

Coach of the Year: If Gregg Popovich keeps the Spurs' playoff streak alive given all that’s happened, he has to be a contender. Mike Budenholzer will get a lot of credit if the Bucks are demonstrably better. The Celtics' Brad Stevens is always a factor. But if my preseason record predictions hold to form and the Jazz top 55 wins with nary a certified Hall of Famer on the roster … My pick: Quin Snyder.

Defensive Player of the Year: Unlike with MVP, I think a repeat winner is highly likely here. Rudy Gobert won it last year despite only playing 56 games. He’ll try to repeat against a stronger field this season. Former back-to-back winner Kawhi Leonard will try to reclaim his throne. Draymond Green will try to re-emerge. And Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are the most likely newbies. Continuing my Year of the Jazz theme … My pick: Gobert

Sixth Man of the Year: I mean, who knows? This typically goes to the most prolific bucket-getter off the bench, which means Lou Williams could repeat or Eric Gordon (if he mostly comes off the bench) could return. Tyreke Evans fits the bill if he repeats most of last season’s production on a more competitive team. Dennis Schroeder, moving to the bench in OKC, and Terry Rozier, moving back to the bench in Boston after some playoff heroics, are decent bets. Fred Van Vleet was a factor for Toronto last season, but I think the most important bench player for the Raptors this season -- and maybe in the whole league -- could be defense-first combo forward OG Anunoby, who doesn’t fit the conventional form. My pick: Anunoby

East Playoffs: 1. Celtics, 2. Raptors, 3. Sixers, 4. Bucks, 5. Pacers, 6. Heat, 7. Wizards, 8. Hornets

West Playoffs: 1. Warriors, 2. Jazz, 3. Rockets, 4. Pelicans, 5. Nuggets, 6. Lakers, 7. Thunder, 8. Blazers

Finals: Warriors over Celtics. I would really like to pick the Raptors to come out of the East, and think it might happen. But they need Peak Kawhi, where Boston could make it through fully without any one of their best players. It’s also hard to pick a team with first-time head coach to make the Finals. Bonus prediction is that at least one of the Warriors’ big four will depart next summer.