If you have not started your Christmas shopping yet, you might have better luck relying on Santa Claus to deliver your gifts on time this holiday season.

With the global supply chain crisis continuing to prevent most retailers from restocking their shelves for the critical holiday shopping season, industry observers say the time to start shopping for Christmas was last month.

“You’re looking for that doll that your child expects, or you’re looking for that video game that someone wants or particular presents for your spouse, and they don’t have it, and they won’t have it again until, you know, long after Christmas,” said Bobby White, chief public policy officer of the Greater Memphis Chamber.

Robots give USPS a hand for holiday rush

The supply chain crisis is a complex issue but the root of the problem is simple: COVID.

COVID outbreaks have disrupted production in Asia just as retailers raced to restock inventory. Meanwhile, dozens of ships have been waiting for weeks to enter ports in Southern California. Further compounding the problem is the shortage of truck drivers, making it longer to move containers out of the ports.

In fact, Sederia Gray, senior communications specialist at FedEx, said the transit time for ships from Asia to the U.S. has increased from three to five weeks.

With limited port capacity, fewer containers are being shipped back to Asia, meaning fewer products are being shipped to the U.S. All of this is causing higher shipping costs.

“One of the primary causes of this crisis is due to the lack of chassis needed to move containers from ports and rail facilities,” said Republican Congressman David Kustoff. “This not only slows the flow of freight, but it also increases the cost of products for shippers and consumers in Tennessee and across our nation.”

All of these factors come at a time when demand for products shipped from Asia to the U.S. has increased greatly after the pandemic, said Rahul Pandey, assistant professor at the Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management at the University of Memphis.

While big retailers are struggling, small businesses have it worse.

Hiring remains a challenge as the ‘Great Resignation’ gains momentum

Shane Waldroup, owner of Memphis vintage store Cotton Row Uniques, said that his store has been having the supply shortage since Easter.

“All my fall and Halloween orders were either cut short, canceled, or we didn’t get it until like after October 31,” Waldroup said.

Andrea Johnson, owner of Memphis skincare store Bubble Bistro, said she started noticing the supply chain problems in 2019.

“Then it’s only gotten worse every quarter,” Johnson said.

For products that she could get in three to four days before, she needs to wait for up to six months to get them.

“You just have no control over it,” Johnson said.

As for Thanksgiving and Christmas, Waldroup said 45% of the products for the holiday season have not arrived, despite that the shipping costs increased up to 17%.

Designer opens East Memphis retail shop

“I have four or five vendors who I have not received one piece of their holiday merchandise,” Waldroup said. “And, in fact, one vendor last week sent me an email and said that anything that was ordered has been cancelled completely.” 

Also, Waldroup was told that he cannot get any reorders before the end of the holiday season, which means once the products are sold out, there will be no refill.

Home décor items, photo frames from Europe, metal products and some jewelries will be harder to get during this holiday season, Waldroup said.

For some other stores, even locally made candles, which seem immune to the global headaches, need to have raw materials and jars for candles coming from other countries, said Tiffany Greenlee, owner of The Candle Bakery, a Memphis candle store.

Greenlee said that they have been out of some jars for six months, and they had to switch to sell candles that need other containers rather than those jars.

Greenlee said that one way for small businesses to beat the supply chain crisis is to buy more products than the amount they need.

But the most common way for businesses to survive the supply chain crisis seems to be planning early.

Waldroup started ordering for the holiday season in July. And Johnson said she planned for the ordering four months before the holiday season.

Saddle Creek ordered wrapping paper in September instead of November when they usually start ordering, said Heather Nordtvedt, marketing manager at Saddle Creek.

Similarly, on the consumers’ side, the U.S. already has witnessed a trend of early Christmas shopping. A UPS third-party study showed that 91% of Americans will finish their Christmas shopping one week before Christmas while the number was 81% last year, said Michael Scott, communications supervisor at UPS.

Memphians are part of the trend.

Waldroup said 40% of the store’s clients have finished Christmas shopping.

Also, both Nordtvedt at Saddle Creek and Mandi Johnson, marketing director at Tanger Memphis, said they noticed people started Christmas shopping earlier at the malls.

“Black Friday used to be such a big deal. And that was like the official kickoff to the whole holiday season,” Nordtvedt said. “Now it’s like this whole week is like Friday.”

Shopping early is also what experts and practitioners in the retail and logistics industries suggest.

Pandey said that if people see something they like, they should buy it immediately because it might not be available or for the same price later.

“If you want the product, and you see the product right now, get it,” Pandey said.

“We think it’s never too early so shop and save,” Mandi Johnson said.