Polling data shows the toll that crime — both violent and property crime, particularly the rash of auto thefts sweeping the city — has taken on the psyche of Memphians. 

The data — part of The Daily Memphian’s crime poll — shows that those who have experienced crime are among the most likely to have considered leaving the city. And many people who have been affected by car thefts and car break-ins are thinking about leaving in particular. 

A combined 58% of respondents said they had considered leaving the Memphis area altogether or moving to a suburb or another part of the city because of crime. The remaining 42% said they had not considered moving at all. 

Of the 527 people who responded to the poll who said they had been a victim of crime, 76.6% of them said they had considered moving in some way. The largest group of those crime victims — 46.7% — said they were considering leaving the area altogether. 

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And 88.7% of people who had experienced a car break-in said they were considering moving to a suburb or out of the area. Of the people who were considering moving to a suburb or out of the area altogether, more than 70% of them had observed reckless driving more than once a week. 

A father whose son was held at gunpoint this month in Midtown acknowledged the thought of leaving. 

Eric Goode, of East Memphis, said his family is unlikely to leave Memphis, but a recent scare has made them take the question more seriously. A family friend was robbed earlier this month, and his 11-year-old son was held at gunpoint.

Goode is a swimming pool contractor and a member of the Historic Broad Avenue Arts Alliance, and he said he’s rehabilitated several homes in Binghampton.

“For the first time ever we’re like, ‘Where would we live? What’s the top five spots where we’d go?’ And that’s not a conversation I want to have,” Goode said.

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‘Old feelings back up’ 

Goode met with Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland after the incident this month. Families like Goode’s leaving is part of the reason the City of Memphis challenged the U.S. Census results, which said the city had lost about 8,000 people between 2010 and 2020. 

Those Census results, though they showed less shrinkage than prior decades, still showed a city in decline. And the city’s census challenge, was, in part, to combat that narrative Strickland said. 

The idea of people leaving Memphis because of crime is not new. It is a theme that has been steady since the mid-20th century. 

Strickland noted how Memphis had dealt with people “voting with their tail lights” before and said the poll results show that feeling is resurgent again. 

“… This recent increase in crime, I think, has brought those old feelings back up. And we all, whether you’re an elected official or just the general public, ought to be very concerned about that,” Strickland said. 

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While the poll shows people are considering leaving, some economic data shows a more nuanced picture. There are far fewer homes for sale in the Memphis area than there were four years ago, for example.

In May 2019, before the last municipal election, there were more than 4,100 homes for sale in Shelby, Fayette and Tipton counties. This May, there were about 3,000.