The past several days have felt fairly un-December-like with mild temperatures and waves of precipitation, even some thunderstorms. We can thank vacillating fronts over the region and southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico for the recent pattern.

However, Wednesday morning’s cold front brought one last round of thunderstorms and an end to the warmth for the next several days. Expect temperatures closer to normal, or even below, for this time of year as we head into the weekend and early next week.

Christmas Day weather forecast

As we approach Christmas Day, a warm-up appears to be in store by the middle of next week as cold Canadian high pressure is displaced by milder air from the south. That also means a return of precipitation chances starting mid-week and continuing for at least a few days.

For those hoping the precipitation is of the frozen variety, that appears unlikely. In fact, there’s probably a better chance of thunder than there is snow. Last year’s Christmas Day high of 61 degrees may be a valid benchmark for this year.

What is Memphis weather like historically on Christmas Day?

So what does Christmas Day weather in Memphis typically look like? Examining the past 100 years of temperature and precipitation data, there is certainly wide variability, but the average high temperature has been 48.8 degrees and the average low 32.5 degrees.

About one in four Christmas days in the record books experienced measurable rainfall, while only eight years since 1925 have had snowfall on Dec. 25. Every one of those was a trace (basically flurries) and they happened most recently in 2009, 2010 and 2012.

Looking further back, the only Christmas Day on record with measurable snow in Memphis was in 1913, a day that saw 3.5 inches of fluffy, white goodness accumulate.

However, there have been a few instances of a “White Christmas” in Memphis, defined by the National Weather Service as having at least one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, no matter when it fell.

The deepest snow on Christmas morning was in 1963, when 10 inches of snow remained, following a 14-inch snowstorm on December 22.

In addition, there were three other years with one to two inches on the ground: in 1962, 1998 and 2004.

The most recent “close call” for a major Christmas snowstorm was in 2012, when blizzard conditions occurred in portions of Arkansas, and Memphis ended up with about an inch of snow on the morning of December 26.

Unfortunately for winter weather-lovers, it appears 2024 will be more of a blue Christmas than a white one. 

This forecast was written by Erik Proseus and published in partnership with MemphisWeather.net. For additional weather information, visit the MemphisWeather.net site.