The last four days of early voting in advance of the Nov. 5 Election Day will likely tell the tale of whether Shelby County voters connect the act of casting their ballots to their concerns about the nation’s future.

A total of 175,118 early and absentee ballots had been cast countywide through Saturday, Oct. 26 — the latest turnout figures available from the Shelby County Election Commission.

Here is the data.

That compares to 251,819 at the same point in October 2020 early voting and 161,230 in 2016 — 151,575 in 2012 and 156,645 in 2008.

The 2020 early voting period for the same election cycle saw the highest daily turnouts in the first three days of the 14-day voting period. While 2016, 2012 and 2008 saw the highest daily turnouts on the last three days of the period.

Like each of the last four editions of the presidential general election cycle in Shelby County, the early vote is expected to be the majority of the total votes cast — early, absentee and election day.

New Bethel campaign encounter

Republican and Democratic candidates and other partisans turned up at the same time Saturday, Oct. 26, outside what had been the busiest of the 26 early voting sites in the county by turnout — New Bethel Missionary Baptist Church in Germantown.

Turnout at Harmony Church in Bartlett passed New Bethel by 125 more voters Saturday in the 10-day totals.

With New Bethel’s voting site at the end of a large parking lot there is a lot of room for campaigning beyond the 100-foot markers around the voting location itself that define at what point the campaigning must stop.

Republican state Representative Mark White was present just a few yards away from Democratic challenger Noah Nordstrom.

And Nordstrom was joined by Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Gloria Johnson and Tennessee Democratic Party Chairman Hendrell Remus.

The polling place was the backdrop for a joint campaign appearance among the three that was a foray into the Republican suburbs.

At one point, both groups had several dozen people present in clusters with signs and chants at the same time.

“If you are not interested in our rally, there’s a little one over there,” cracked Tennessee Democratic Party executive committee member Dave Cambron of Memphis.

Patti Possel who runs the local Republican campaign headquarters in Cordova offered a Trump sticker to a couple of departing voters. 

A Democratic campaign worker wearing a Nordstrom T-shirt and holding a Nordstrom yard sign approached another couple who expressed surprise at seeing a Democrat in what is considered Republican territory.

“Take a picture,” the campaign worker replied.

Voters from anywhere in the county can vote at any of the 26 early voting sites.

White and Nordstrom on school voucher legislation

White was surrounded by Republican partisans a few yards away — many carrying signs supporting the reelection of Republican U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn.

Remus told the Democratic group: “We have got to make sure that we defeat the worst Senator in the United States of America. … We have to make sure the champion of (school) vouchers never goes back to Nashville again — Mark White.”

Earlier Nordstrom supporters hung a homemade banner across their campaign tent reading “Ask me about the voucher scam” — a reference to Governor Bill Lee’s proposed expansion of the use of school vouchers to pay for private school tuition.

Lee has said the revamped proposal tried this past year in the capitol will be his top priority in the legislative session this January that follows the Nov. 5 election.

“It is a plan to defund our public schools at a time when we are almost last in the nation in funding,” said Nordstrom, who teaches Spanish at White Station High School.

“I’ve been in classrooms without enough desks, no books, mold, roaches, kids passing out because it’s so hot and crowded,” he said. “It’s unacceptable to throw away our children. … it’s time to actually reprioritize.”

White, meanwhile, expressed support of “school choice” in general — avoiding calling it a voucher program.

“I’ve always been for parental choice. I like to use that term better than vouchers because it kind of is a negative term,” he told The Daily Memphian. “I’m for parents having options when the system their child is in is not working for them. Whether that’s charter, private, home schooling or traditional public — to continue to build them up is my focus.”

White also said his preference is not a wide-open model for vouchers that would make them available to parents and their children regardless of their income.

“I like having income restrictions because those are people who don’t have choice in education. … that’s my preference,” he said.

White, who is chairman of the House education administration committee, acknowledged Nordstrom but touted his own experience and status as part of the Republican supermajorities in the legislature.

“He has a right to run. And he’s a teacher and he says, ‘I’ve got some ideas too,’” White said of Nordstrom. “My experience of being up there and being the majority party — I can get things done. Being the minority party in Nashville — it’s hard to move the needle.”

“I’m not focused on social issues maybe that he may be,” he told The Daily Memphian. “I think my role as an educator should be focused on that families are supported and let’s leave the rhetoric down and just try to do the best for every child’s education.”

White is a former school teacher and Johnson was a special education teacher for 27 years in Knoxville.

Johnson answers Blackburn question

On the campaign trail, Johnson has pushed back on the idea that a lot of children can’t read at grade level based on the state testing. Johnson, who is a Democratic state Representative as well, says legislators are misreading the information on student proficiency.

“Our public schools are not failing. Do not listen to those lies,” she said in her stump speech on the church parking lot. “Our public schools are being failed by a policy coming out of the state legislature.”

Johnson also challenged Blackburn’s frequent jibe at Democrats on gender issues, saying Democrats cannot define what a woman is.

She brought up Blackburn’s votes against a violence against women measure and bills for equal pay for women.

“I kind of understand now why she wants to know the definition of a woman. A woman is a human being who wants equal pay and not to take away their rights forever,” Johnson said. “We know she is not for women.”

The value of campaign basics

Nordstrom and State House District 97 Democratic nominee Jesse Huseth are running campaigns built on basic methods that Democratic contenders have used before in attempts to unseat Republican incumbents in vulnerable districts.

The difference this time is they are getting considerable support from the state Democratic Party, including volunteers in the basic foundation of canvassing and phone banking.

Some politicos question whether their role has had its day in winning campaigns.

Still other politicos insist it’s a necessary ingredient in any winning campaign in part because of what it teaches candidates particularly in district races and how it tests their endurance and whether they are serious.

“I think it is still the most important thing a candidate can do,” Huseth said. “I’ve talked to so many voters — folks who have never met a state representative, met a candidate and who are immediately engaged.”

“We know the bombardment of mail, digital media, TV — all play well,” he said. “All can pass on a message. But the greatest advocate for policy or for the candidate is the candidate themselves.”

Meanwhile, Republican incumbent John Gillespie has been showing up at events like Gov. Bill Lee’s briefing on new bridge construction Oct. 22 and Lee’s recent meeting with local law enforcement leaders.

Like White, Gillespie is emphasizing his ability to get things done as part of the Republican supermajorities with an emphasis on crime issues that has seen Gillespie partner with state Senator Brent Taylor (R-Eads).

“If I win in a landslide, I would say it just proves that I need to continue to do what I’ve been doing, which is focusing on reducing the recidivism rate … and closing that revolving door,” Gillespie said in an Oct. 18 Daily Memphian story on the race.

“If I lose, I guess, unfortunately, the state will continue the same direction that’s going on,” he said. “Nothing will change here locally, only the loss of someone who has been successful in getting money, which my opponent just will not have that success.”

Banners or yard signs?

The imprint of former President Donald Trump may be missing from the hand-to-hand campaigning in Shelby County.

But before early voting sites opened Saturday morning, a group of Trump supporters were visible in the Poplar Corridor — where yard signs in residential areas west of Cherry Road are the subject of endless speculation every campaign season.

The Trump group began with about a dozen people on the southwest corner of Poplar Avenue and White Station Road Saturday morning at 8:30. Two hours later, it was a group of 30 with some on the northwest corner of the intersection.

The group favored Trump banners or flags over more compact and smaller yard signs held by hand.

A woman waved a “Trump Won” banner with the moves of a baton twirler as Saturday morning traffic whizzed by the corner — some honking in response, others going about their business.

At New Bethel’s busy parking lot there were no Trump banners.

Although Trump yard signs were available along with a lifesize Trump cutout figure to pose with, most of the Republican partisans were carrying yard signs for U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn and state Representative Mark White.

The group at Poplar and White Station was not carrying the campaign signs of any candidates in any local races.