Kelsey leads Salinas in state employee union poll

By , Daily Memphian Updated: October 31, 2018 8:45 AM CT | Published: October 29, 2018 4:20 PM CT

Republican state Sen. Brian Kelsey is leading Democratic challenger Gabby Salinas by a wide margin in a recent state employees union poll with a heavy dose of GOP voters.

Polling from the Tennessee Employees Action Movement PAC, which endorsed Kelsey this year, and Spry Strategies found more than half of voters surveyed at random in state Senate District 31, 56 percent, support Kelsey compared to 38 percent who back the underdog Salinas.

The TEAM-PAC/Spry poll surveyed 444 registered voters, including those who voted early or plan to vote, between Oct. 21-23. The survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent, used automated phone calling to poll newly registered voters and voters who participated in two of the last three general elections. Early voting wraps up Thursday, Nov. 1, and Election Day is Nov. 6.

Tennessee’s Republican leaders consider the district race in Germantown and East Memphis one of the tightest in Tennessee, even though Kelsey has served in the Legislature for 14 years and chairs the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee.

Lt. Gov. Randy McNally’s political action committee, McPAC, made a $300,000 independent expenditure for advertising running through Election Day attacking Salinas for her positions in support of immigrants and favoring Medicaid expansion.

The Senate Democratic Caucus considers the district a “priority” in this election and recently gave Salinas an undisclosed amount of money.

“I think she absolutely has a shot. I think she’s going to win,” said state Sen. Jeff Yarbro, a Nashville Democrat who chairs the caucus.

But with just a few days left in the race, the percentages in this poll are promising for candidates it endorsed and state employees, said Tennessee State Employees Association executive director Randy Stamps.

“Sen. Kelsey has a history of working with state employees on solutions to their issues, including sponsoring and co-sponsoring legislation, and that is why he has our support in this election,” Stamps said.

Based on the recommendations of the Shelby County and Memphis Higher Education chapter members of TSEA, TEAM-PAC voted earlier this year to endorse Kelsey in the Senate race, according to the statement from the association.

For instance, Kelsey sponsored Senate Bill 1572, which became law this year, requiring decisions affecting state personnel policies to go through rulemaking procedures.

Salinas, a former St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital researcher, did not speak to the poll’s results. But she has said it’s important for people to “stay focused on her grassroots effort and getting people to come out and vote for someone who cares about the community.”

District 31 has been a Republican stronghold in Shelby County, but the demographics have been changing, leading many political onlookers to believe Salinas can flip it to Democrats.

Nevertheless, the poll gave a 53.6 percent approval rating to President Donald Trump, with only 41.4 percent disapproving. 

Of those who participated, 50 percent considered themselves a Republican, 24 percent a Democrat and 25 percent independent or third party.

Thus, 57 percent of the respondents backed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee, a Franklin businessman and farmer, compared to 38 percent who supported Democratic candidate Karl Dean, a former two-term Nashville mayor.

Similarly, in the U.S. Senate race to replace Sen. Bob Corker, Brentwood Republican Congressman Marsha Blackburn got the backing of 52 percent, while former Gov. Phil Bredesen received the support of only 44 percent.

More than 58 percent supported Brett Kavanaugh as a U.S. Supreme Court justice, and only 35 percent said they don’t support Kavanaugh.

As the election approaches next week, Salinas has $29,125 in her campaign account after raising more than $24,500 in the latest reporting period.

Kelsey maintains a huge advantage financially, with nearly $259,500 in his account after raising $123,100 in the latest reporting period and spending $37,893.

Topics

Brian Kelsey Gabby Salinas Randy Stamps
Sam Stockard

Sam Stockard

Sam Stockard is a Nashville-based reporter with more than 30 years of journalism experience as a writer, editor and columnist covering the state Legislature and Tennessee politics for The Daily Memphian.


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