Nelson: We know who’s going to win the Tennessee primary. But we’re probably wrong.

By , Daily Memphian Updated: January 21, 2020 6:45 AM CT | Published: January 21, 2020 4:00 AM CT
Michael Nelson
Daily Memphian

Michael Nelson

Michael Nelson is contributing editor and columnist for The Daily Memphian, the political analyst for WMC-TV, and the Fulmer professor of political science at Rhodes College. His latest books are “Clinton's Elections: 1992, 1996, and the Birth of a New Era of  Governance" and “The American Presidency: Origins and Development, 1776-2018.”

You can find FiveThirtyEight.com predictions more than a month in advance of the Tennessee primary and nearly two weeks before votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses. How much faith should we have in these forecasts? Not a whole lot.

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