The biggest unknowns about Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee have nothing to do with how he will fare in next month’s midterm election.

Barring a cataclysmic development between now and election day, Nov. 8, Lee is virtually assured of winning reelection over Democratic challenger Jason Martin, a Nashville physician.

Fivethirtyeight, the popular ABC News-owned polling and data website, gives Lee a 99% chance of winning a second term — the same percentage given to Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Alabama’s incumbent GOP Gov. Kay Ivey — all vying in ruby red states.

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The website projects that Lee will get about 57% of the total vote, compared to about 31% for Martin. Personally, I believe Lee’s projected share is overly conservative. I see him getting upward of 65% of the vote — which is still less than the 70% vote total former Gov. Bill Haslam received in winning reelection in 2014.

The only reason Lee’s numbers would be lower is if there is a larger than expected turnout among urban Democrats and Independents who are angry with the Republican Party’s continued movement to the extreme right on abortion and other social issues.

Also, keep in mind that Lee won his first term in 2018 over Democrat Karl Dean, a respected former mayor of Nashville, with 59% of the vote. Despite Lee’s anti-abortion stance, it’s wishful thinking for Democrats to believe he will fare worse than that this year.

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“The reason we see Bill Lee in the position he is in is because he was not a politician. He was a businessman and he rose above the fray,” said Cary Vaughn, Shelby County Republican Party chairman, referring to Lee’s success in 2018 over Dean and entrenched GOP primary candidates Diane Black and Randy Boyd.

“I think he is a man of integrity and humility,” Vaughn added. “And when you have a bedrock of integrity, you have commitment. Without that bedrock, nothing works.”

So, the major questions surrounding Lee, 63, go far beyond his safe reelection bid to what’s likely down the road politically for the Franklin, Tennessee, native who, before becoming governor, was president of the family-owned Lee Co., a home services and construction business started by his grandfather in 1944.

Recent speculation has focused on Lee being a possible national candidate for elected office in the future — if not in 2024, then in 2028 when he will still be in his 60s.

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“If he puts together a successful second term, he will be part of that conversation” for national office, former Shelby County GOP chairman Chris Tutor told me. “He’s not perfect, but he’s done a good job and that is why he will win handily next month.”

But given Lee’s mindset politically — as a compassionate conservative â la George W. Bush — and given that the Republican Party remains firmly under the thumb of Donald Trump, it’s difficult to imagine a place for Lee anywhere on a national ticket.

And until Trump goes away — forcibly or voluntarily — I don’t see the national GOP changing its ways to become less strident and more tolerant in the next two to three election cycles.

Which speaks more about the shortcomings of the party than those of Lee. Because despite what I have observed over the past four years as Lee’s lack of strong political leadership on a plethora of social issues, he should be, in theory, the kind of national candidate Republicans in the past would want.

He’s pro-business and an avowed southern Christian conservative who believes in lower taxes and less government — except when it comes to guns, teaching about race in schools, reproductive rights and micromanaging local government.

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The primary problem is Lee lacks the assertiveness needed to get national attention. He is forced to deal with a supermajority Republican state legislature whose members are far more to the extreme right than he is. And he too often has given in to their demands. Even when he has differed with them, Lee has been a go-along-to-get-along leader and has opted not to use the power of the gubernatorial veto.

With Republicans such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis taking up most of the alternative-to-Trump air space, there is little room left for Lee and his laid-back style.

It’s also highly unlikely that he would be tapped as a vice-presidential running mate since that spot would be reserved for someone from a swing state. But as one Republican insider told me, Lee could land a cabinet position — possibly agriculture secretary — in a Republican administration.

The fact is, Lee has shown no indication that he’s even thinking about life beyond the governor’s office. “Being… governor has been the honor of my life,” he says in a campaign ad currently running across the state. And he tends to discuss national issues only when asked to do so by reporters.

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“I’ve never seen Bill Lee jockeying for anything,” Vaughn said. “I think he enjoys where he is.”

And he probably won’t start jockeying for national attention once the midterms are over. Lee wants to see the expected 2025 completion of the Ford Blue Oval City truck assembly plant, the biggest economic development project in state history that came to fruition under his watch.

He’s also committed to making changes — controversial as they are — to public education through an influx of charter schools run by ultra-conservative Hillsdale College out of Michigan.

I will be shocked to see Lee glad-handing in Iowa or stomping through the snow in New Hampshire early next year. His brand of politics is too docile compared to others in his party who crave the national stage.

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Lee has effectively weathered the criticism he gets from Democrats and occasionally from some of us in the media by ignoring the critiques. Hence his refusal to debate Martin prior to next month’s election. He sees nothing to gain from answering tough questions from his opponent or reporters. A majority of voters like him. That’s all that matters.

 So, for the moment at least, any speculation about where Lee goes from here is just that — blind speculation. The Tennessee Lookout’s Holly McCall said it best in a recent column.

“Should he have plans to run for higher office, the angel on his shoulder that keeps him from going full-tilt right wing, stolen election, anti-immigrant conspiracy theorist will have to fight with the political devil on his other shoulder that will allow him to be competitive in national Republican politics.”

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She then added this: “As it is, Lee may be too hot for Democrats and too cold for Republicans, but if he remains lukewarm, he’ll eventually find himself spat out by both parties and out of the political arena.”

Once his second term is done, out of the arena just might be what he prefers.