Is the active portion of the NBA offseason mostly over or just in a holding pattern? 

Only time will tell, but I’ll take the current pause as an opportunity for a mid-summer Grizzlies Mailbag. 

Per usual, I got more good reader questions than I have space to answer them, so I’m punting about a dozen questions to a second mailbag column next week. 

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This week, we deal with the big question of the summer: Are the Grizzlies going to be worse? 

There are also questions on replacing the injured Jaren Jackson Jr., Ziaire Williams’ role and potential leap, the path forward for instant cult hero Kenneth Lofton Jr. and more. Next week, I’ll wade into more specific questions about the team’s rookie class and the veterans it let go to make room for them. 

Let’s get to it. 

Needless to say, this is the ultimate Subject for Further Research in this space, but also the subject most animating Grizzlies discussion of late. 

While I understand the fan impulse to assume the best, especially given how strongly the Grizzlies exceeded expectations a year ago, I think there’s probably been too much resistance to the notion of a year-to-year decline, which, relative to the regular season, seems both likely and not necessarily all that troubling. 

I’ll go back to a column I wrote in April about the new place at which I thought the team had arrived. I dubbed it the Puncher’s Chance Plateau. 

The team’s ascent, both steeper and faster than anyone expected, was now over, I asserted. And rather than arriving at a peak, they were arriving at a plateau, a relatively flat place where they had the chance to hang around awhile. With that arrival came an end to any expectation of consistent upward motion. But “relatively” is a key modifier here. From that earlier column: 

These Grizzlies are there now, ahead of schedule, and that’s why the future is less likely to be an upward arc than a jagged plateau. Some years will be better than others in the regular season. Some will be better than others in the playoffs, and those two outcomes may not be in alignment. 

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It seems probable that the Grizzlies’ coming season will be a decline from the past one, and the biggest factor working against the team is simply gravity. 

The Grizzlies had the second-best record in the NBA last season, and did so in a season in which quality teams such as the Nuggets, Nets, Clippers and Pelicans were without All-Star-level players for most or all of the season. There’s a lot more room to go down than up. 

The main thing working in the team’s favor isn’t its offseason changes — which do suggest an extra thumb on gravity’s scale whatever the optimists envision — but rather health. 

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This probably seems odd since Jackson seems likely to miss 20 games or more. But last season the team’s top four players — Jackson, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks — appeared together in only 11 games and in only 125 minutes. The Grizzlies throttled opponents by an average of more than 20 points per 100 possessions in that time. Even with Jackson’s injury, I’d take the over on that 11 and 125. And that, even more than the developmental growth of any specific player, is the Grizzlies’ best chance to hold their ground. 

But more important for the Grizzlies than avoiding slippage in the regular-season standings will be arriving next spring as again a competitive playoff team, and feeling like they are still firmly on this competitive plateau, not only now but going forward. 

Barring changes, the Grizzlies open the season with three veteran frontcourt players who have logged productive time in a winning context: Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. There’s no law that you have to play four. 

The problem: Those three players have combined to shoot 57-217 (26%) from 3-point range over the past two seasons. Even having the worst shooting season of his young career, Jackson shot 32% on more than 400 attempts last year alone. 

Not everyone needs to shoot 3s, but in the modern NBA you need some stretch in your frontcourt rotation. Adding to the problem, this trio’s lack of versatility on offense is partly doubled on defense, where Adams and Tillman in particular are more paint-bound. And yet this trio of relatively traditional bigs doesn’t, as a group, offer much of the rim protection that Jackson brings in abundance. 

They really need one or more of their young power forward options — Santi Aldama, Killian Tillie, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy — to step up in a major way. Of the quartet, Tillie has proven the most — which still isn’t much — but is the least likely to still be around by opening night. Aldama, at 6’11”, offers the only hope of defensive presence at the rim, and even that is a very theoretical proposition. But they’ll need one of these four to play — and make shots — right away. It’s dicey. Which brings us to … 

Clarke is the obvious “next man up” here, but it would be much easier for him to step into a starting role alongside Jackson than alongside Adams. 

The numbers on an Adams/Clarke pairing were actually pretty decent last season, but the team didn’t use it much or seem comfortable with it. It worked on offense primarily by dominating the offensive glass. 

The bet here is that the Grizzlies will be reluctant to start the season with Clarke/Adams up front and will hope one of these younger, more perimeter-oriented options pops enough in training camp to earn a look. 

I only half-joked before Summer League that it was going to be round one of an Aldama-LaRavia battle for the opening night starting spot. I still suspect that’s where we are. And I suspect that the Grizzlies, after pairing two first-round picks to move up for him, would love for LaRavia to seize this opportunity. Summer League was not encouraging, but LaRavia 3-point-oriented role-player’s game might look better alongside the likes of Morant and Bane. For now, I’m putting Aldama — whose summer play was quite encouraging — in pole position here. 

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Kenneth Lofton Jr.? I’m a charter member of the KLUB (Kenneth Lofton Union of Believers). I completely buy that his Summer League production suggests real skills that could manifest at the NBA level. The footwork, the touch, the passing vision, the sneaky quickness. The way he uses his width and strength to carve space and create advantages? Sign me up for all of it.

But I’m also in “pump-the-brakes” mode for this season. This isn’t just because Lofton’s a teenager on a two-way contract. It’s also because there are some real problem areas — things like defense, fouling and decision-making — that need work. I suspect the Grizzlies will take a patient approach with Lofton, and their fans should follow.

The excitement over Lofton probably warrants a quick refresher on how two-way contracts work.

My understanding is that second-round pick Vince Williams Jr. is on a two-year two-way contract, after which the Grizzlies can extend a two-way-contract qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. Lofton is on the same kind of contract, but would hit restricted free agency after only one season. As an undrafted player, Lofton could have signed with any of the 30 NBA teams, giving him more leverage to get back into free agency sooner. 

If Lofton — or Williams — makes a persuasive early case, the Grizzlies could move him onto the main roster before he hits free agency next summer. They did this last season with Tillie. They’d need to clear a roster spot to do so. It’s worth noting that the team still has access to most of its mid-level exception, which could be used to sign either player to a multi-year deal above the minimum salary. 

Could another team make Lofton a main-roster offer this season and sign him away from the Grizzlies while he’s on a two-way contract? No. The two-way deal binds Lofton to the Grizzlies for this season. And even next summer, the Grizzlies can have restricted rights in free agency. 

Williams is 6-9, but he’s a thin 6-9. And while his nominal position is small forward, every indication — the way the Grizzlies used him in Summer League, the kind of players they pursued around the draft, and how executive Zach Kleiman talked about the team afterward — suggests the team envisions Wiliams shifting down to scoring guard more often than up to power forward. 

That said, I do think you may see the Grizzlies deploy lineups — perhaps even to close some games — with Morant, Bane, Williams and Brooks all on the floor. In those alignments, I think the shorter Brooks will be the more nominal “power forward.” (Remember Brooks guarding seven-footer Karl-Anthony Towns in the playoffs.)

Reasonable excitement over Williams’ potential has, I think, obscured a little bit what he actually did as a rookie, which was to average 8 points a game as a mid-rotation player, with the defensive struggles you’d expect of a teenager in the NBA. He did not make the NBA’s 10-member all-rookie team, and no-one outside of Memphis really noted this exclusion.

The same excitement, and the recent example of Bane’s second-year leap, has perhaps raised expectations a little high. 

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What’s reasonable?

To get a feel, I looked at roughly similar players — wing players coming off a single year of college experience — from the first round of the previous five drafts. 

There’s an element of judgment call in these assemblages, but I counted 20 such players, and if there’s no real second-year pattern, that’s perhaps alone instructive. A second-season growth spurt is not a given. 

Some players drafted very high — Josh Jackson, Kevin Knox —got big opportunities as rookies and prove themselves unworthy, declining in their second-seasons and quickly settling into journeyman roles. I don’t think that’s Williams.

Some never become viable players at all. That’s definitely not Williams. 

And some — Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown — make steep ascents to stardom. Maybe that’s Williams, but it’s not a fair expectation. 

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What is?

Taking away the two extremes — the All-Stars and clean misses — from that group of 20 leaves 11 players who together comprise I think a pretty reasonable comparison group: RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Tyler Herro, Malik Monk, Malik Beasley, Josh Green, Jaden McDaniels, Nassir Little, Keldon Johnson, Troy Brown and Lonnie Walker IV. 

These range from players who retain future All-Star hopes to those who seem to be settling into lower rotation roles. Collectively, their second-year improvements averaged to about five more minutes and 2.5 more points a game on a 10-point shooting bump. 

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Apply that to Williams’ rookie season and you’re looking at something like 11 points on 46% shooting in 27 minutes a game.

The playing time seems right. The shooting percentage? I’d take it. If he’s asked to create more, it’ll probably decline. I suspect most Grizzlies fans would predict the over on 11 points a game. I probably would too, but this seems like a reasonable bar to set. 

The better half of that subset? Quality starters and sixth men such as Barrett, Herro, Johnson and McDaniels? That seems like the right cohort to project Williams into. It could always be better. It could definitely be worse. 

The implication here is that Konchar will take on Melton’s role as the team’s fourth wing player in a 10-man rotation. 

While he will be less spectacular about it, Konchar can roughly replicate Melton’s above-position rebounding and bring some of his opportunistic defense while gambling less. On the ball, Konchar might be a bit more reliable as a secondary ball handler. 

But can he score?

Konchar has shot 41% from 3 across three NBA seasons, but still on fewer than 200 attempts. Last season alone, Melton shot 37% on nearly 400 attempts. One of those is a better shooting percentage, the other is the more meaningful shooter. 

Konchar has physical and skill limitations that are going to keep him as a low usage/low volume offensive player. But to manage the leap from borderline to full-fledged rotation player, he probably needs to increase his 3-point frequency while maintaining a decent percentage. 

The good news here is that Taylor Jenkins and his coaching staff have a track record of breeding confidence in reluctant shooters. It happened with Tyus Jones and Melton. It needs to happen with Konchar this season. (Looking at you too, Jake LaRavia.)

A number? Last season Konchar averaged 3.5 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. Melton more than doubled that, at 8.1. Can Konchar at least get up to the 5-6 territory?

It’s a good question. After playing around 1,100 minutes as a rookie, Tillman was down to 700 last season. 

With Kyle Anderson moving on and Jackson injured, there are two frontcourt rotation spots available to open the season, and Tillman would seem to be in line for one of them. 

But what about when Jackson returns? The Grizzlies have more invested now in Adama, LaRavia and Roddy. It seems likely Tillman will get squeezed again. 

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It’s hard to see someone sticking around long-term without busting through into a steady rotation role. On the other hand, the Grizzlies just gave Konchar a long-term contract. Could Tillman be frontcourt Konchar? A steady, reliable hand for the right price that the team likes having around? I’m less certain. 

The Grizzlies still have a team option on Tillman for next season, but I’d say his role, now and even more projecting forward, is shaky. And if trade options ever materialize, he seems among the more likely Grizzlies to find himself in a deal. 

I will note this: Clarke and Tillman can play together. The team only used that combo for about 100 minutes last season, but it was a net positive. The season before, with Clarke struggling, this combo logged nearly 450 minutes, and the Grizzlies a +6.6 per 100 possessions. With Jackson out, I think we could see a lot of that to start the season. 

With Jackson out and assuming everyone else available? I’d guess an opening-night 10-man rotation that might look like this:

Starters: Morant, Bane, Brooks, Aldama, Adams.

Bench: Tyus Jones, Konchar, Williams, Clarke, Tillman.

But, again, if LaRavia has a strong camp, he could push either Aldama or Tillman out of the mix.