What’s a reasonable best-case scenario for the Memphis Grizzlies next season? 

Everybody wants to win a title. But while that’s possible for the Grizzlies in 2026, it’s not reasonable. Even lead decision-maker Zach Kleiman is talking about title dreams in more of a future tense now: That trading Desmond Bane might be a step back that sets up a bigger step forward. 

So a reasonable best case? How about a youngish roster with a new head coach overcoming lingering summer injuries (to Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr.) to improve throughout 82 games? Maybe they knock off a fading first-round playoff opponent and drop a hard-fought second-round series to the Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets. The Grizzlies accomplish enough to feel like the team is back on an upward trajectory. Then, a few weeks later, they get a Top 3 pick in a draft thought to have three potential superstars at the top.

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This admittedly rosy scenario is very much in play as the NBA offseason winds down: Even after the Bane trade, the Grizzlies have the talent to remain in the playoff race and the upside to improve from there. And the 2026 draft pick the Grizzlies acquired from the Orlando Magic is widely expected to be the Phoenix Suns’ pick in the Top 10 in what’s widely believed to be a loaded draft, with the potential to land as high as second. 

What’s a reasonable worst-case scenario? Grizzlies fans know too well that things can fly apart via injury or the unexpected. They’ve seen that before. But even if the worst came, it would mean having two potential high picks in a loaded draft, to add to a roster already full of young talent and mostly without bad contracts. 

There are better places for an NBA franchise to be. (Witness the Thunder.) But Grizzlies fans are facing a pretty good one next season: The rare pairing of an expected playoff race with an expected Top 10 pick. 

Wrapping up the summer, recalibrating the West

The Grizzlies aren’t done, at least not technically. As of this writing, most of the team’s known maneuverings — a contract extension for Jackson Jr., new deals for Santi Aldama and Cam Spencer, the signing of free agents Ty Jerome and Jock Landale — have not processed. 

The holdup is freeing up the cap space required to sign Jackson Jr., which has to happen before the other moves follow. The Grizzlies have a kind of failsafe switch — waiving and stretching the contract of Bane-trade acquisition Cole Anthony — that will allow them to do this and seem to be taking time to explore other paths, or perhaps to give other paths time to materialize. It will all happen soon enough, and while you truly never know, other notable transactions are unlikely to follow this summer. 

The Grizzlies will fill out the coaching staff around Tuomas Iisalo. And they’ll make decisions on their three two-way contracts, with only second-round pick Javon Small a near-certainty to claim one of them. 

Grizzlies podcast: Memphis free agency fireworks

But the main roster they’re bringing into the season? There’s a good chance it’s now known, if not quite set. 

That’s not quite the case for every team. In the West alone, the Golden State Warriors are still in a stalemate of sorts with restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga. The Phoenix Suns are rumored to be buying out one-time star guard Bradley Beal, who could still land somewhere else in the West. (The Los Angeles Clippers is the rumor.) Some veteran free agents, such as Al Horford (rumored: Warriors) and Chris Paul (ditto: Suns), still await new homes. 

And chances are that at least one meaningful trade pops up out of the blue. There was one just this week, with the Clippers sending guard Norman Powell to Miami in a three-team deal that brought back forward John Collins from the Utah Jazz. 

There are murmurs around the future of LeBron James in Los Angeles.

But while some small moves remain certain and some big ones remain possible, most of the league has now been restocked and reshuffled. 

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With the offseason both barely begun and yet nearly over, let’s look over the landscape of the Western Conference, where one team seems certain to be great and another seems determined to be terrible. There’s a lot of potential volatility in between, but here’s how I’d tier it out right now:

A tier of their own (penthouse edition) 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are bringing back every player of consequence from their newly minted title team and adding a couple of lottery picks to the back of the bench: Center Thomas Sorber (15th pick, 2025) and point guard Nikola Topic (12th pick, 2024), the latter of whom sat out all of last season due to injury recovery.

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The Houston Rockets, who finished second in the regular season, and the Denver Nuggets, who pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, have been aggressive this summer. 

The Rockets had a great defense last season but lacked a go-to guy on offense. They sacrificed one of their top defenders (Ol’ Pal Dillon Brooks) in a trade for one of the greatest scorers in hoops history, Kevin Durant. They also added veteran role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela. There’s a ton of talent and toughness here, but concerns include Durant’s durability in what will be his age-37 season and the shallow guard depth on an imbalanced roster. 

Denver’s Nikola Jokic may still be the best player in the world, and he may have more help next season. The Nuggets added three veteran bench players (versatile returnee Bruce Brown, shooter Tim Hardaway Jr. and Ol’ Pal Jonas Valanciunas as Jokic’s backup) while making a potential upgrade on the wing by trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson. If Jokic ever gets a second title, this may be his best chance. 

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Trying to hang on

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been to back-to-back conference finals, but … they lost a key player to free agency in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Ol’ Pal Mike Conley will be 38 next season. They were also one of the NBA’s healthiest teams last season. 

With less proven depth and the likelihood of less health luck, the Wolves will need big contributions from a highly uncertain cohort of young players to keep pace with the Nuggets and Rockets. 

Fading stars 

If the above four teams live up to their billing, that will leave two more spots above the play-in line. The most popular picks will come from a trio of California teams employing high-wattage but potentially creaky stars: The Los Angeles Lakers (LeBron James will turn 41 next season), Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry, 38; Draymond Green, 36; Jimmy Butler, 36) and Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard, 34; James Harden, 36).

After trading for him last season, the Lakers will now have a full season of Luka Doncic, an in-his-prime star who carried the Dallas Mavericks to the Finals two years ago. Maybe Doncic can get free agent center signee De’Andre Ayton to play winning basketball, or at least get Ayton some easy looks. But adding Ayton and Ol’ Pal Jake LaRavia in free agency is about all the Lakers have done this summer. Doncic is great (when healthy and in shape), but there’s significant potential for both distraction and porous defense.

The Warriors were fantastic in a small-sample closing kick last season, after acquiring Butler, but their aged lead trio doesn’t seem built to go hard for 82 games. The Warriors have so far done pretty much nothing this summer while waiting out the market on Kuminga.

I like the Clippers' chances best of this trio. Harden and Leonard are also shaky bets in the regular season, but an elite coach (Tyronn Lue) and great defensive infrastructure should keep the Clippers competitive even when their stars miss time. They bolstered a thin frontcourt via free agency (Brook Lopez) and trade (John Collins) and seem likely to add another guard soon.

Herrington: What are the Grizzlies doing this summer? Just listen to them.

Next teams up

I think at least one of those three starry Cali squads (or maybe Minnesota) will be worse than expected and will be passed by at least one of two younger, deeper teams better equipped to traverse 82 games. 

The popular choice here will be the San Antonio Spurs, who added two new lottery picks (guard Dylan Harper, wing Carter Bryant) and a playoff-tested free agent big man (Luke Kornett) to a team growing around emerging superstar Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs got only 63 combined games last season from Wemby and in-season vet guard acquisition De’Aaron Fox. They could easily double that this season. 

Conventional wisdom may count out your Memphis Grizzlies, and Edey’s injury does give me pause. Current injuries to Edey and Jackson Jr., a new head coach and the constant concerns about Ja Morant’s durability are all good reasons to project a regression even from last season’s 8th-place finish. But I still think the combination of depth and (fast, aggressive) style makes the Grizzlies a good bet to remain in the regular-season hunt for a Top 6 finish. 

Missing parts, big questions

Even if all of the above teams make the postseason, that would still leave a spot in the play-in tournament. The Dallas Mavericks have added top pick Cooper Flagg to go with new centerpiece Anthony Davis. There’s a lot of talent in that duo, but Flagg will still be 18 when the season begins, and Davis has played fewer than 57 games in four of the past five seasons. Star guard Kyrie Irving may miss the whole season due to injury, and journeyman free agent D’Angelo Russell is not a rousing replacement. The Mavs are big and could be pretty strong on defense, but I doubt their guard play is good enough. 

The Portland Trail Blazers made one of the more curious moves of the summer, taking Chinese center Hansen Yang (widely projected as a second-rounder) in the middle of the first round. Then they traded for veteran guard Jrue Holiday, the move of a team that thinks it’s ready to make a leap. I’m not so sure, but the Blazers have the talent to be a Top 10 defense. 

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The Sacramento Kings are forever a curiosity, signing journeyman veteran Dennis Schroder to man the point on a team that seems to lack the high-end talent or defense to really compete. 

The Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans were messy situations last season, and that’s continued into the summer. 

The Suns traded away Durant and seem likely to buy out Beal. They added a couple of talented young under-performers (guard Jalen Green, center Mark Williams) via trade and a raw rookie center (Khaman Malauch) in the draft to flank franchise stalwart Devin Booker. A first-time head coach (Jordan Ott) will be trying to sort this out. 

The Pelicans traded for gunner Jordan Poole to play point guard, drafted a couple of offensively talented but likely defensively overmatched rookies (Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen) and will hope, yet again, that star Zion Williamson plays more than he sits. 

A tier of their own (outhouse edition)

The Utah Jazz all but gave away decent vets John Collins and Collin Sexton this summer and seem likely to pursue a bigger trade return for veteran forward Lauri Markkanen in the months to come. They’ll be fielding nearly entire rotations of rookie-contract players this season. 

Herrington: After Bane deal, trade market is wide open for Grizzlies

Did you watch the Grizzlies play the Jazz in Summer League this week? That’s basically Utah’s regular-season team. 

Utah finishing last in the West next season might be an even safer bet than Oklahoma City finishing first.