This is the promised “part two” of my annual Mid-Summer Grizzlies Mailbag. Last week, in part one, we covered Desmond Bane, the team’s luxury-tax trajectory, Barbenheimer and more. 

This week, it’s the Grizzlies’ contender status, Jaren Jackson Jr. at center, last season’s road woes and lots more hoops stuff. 

In the “There’s More to Life Than Basketball” section, we get into 2023 television, Memphis sandwiches, favorite cities and other sports. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. starts strong in USA Basketball exhibition

This is a long one – I’m sorry or you’re welcome, whichever applies – and still left plenty of good questions unanswered. Let’s get to it. 

Despite all the Ja Morant uncertainty, I think it’s about the same as it was last season: On paper, assuming Morant returns in good form, they’re a second-tier contender.

I think there could be as many as 11 teams with a chance at making the Finals if they catch the right breaks, and the Grizzlies are one of them. They’ll need more things to break their way than the Denver Nuggets or Phoenix Suns, but those are teams with very shaky depth and frontline players with significant recent injury history. They need good fortune too.

The question for the Grizzlies is can they be a better playoff team? They’ve lost to lower-seeded teams two years in a row, but that was the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, teams with title-proven cores in place. Will the addition of a playoff-tested vet in Marcus Smart and another year of experience for the Grizzlies’ own young core make them more competitive come spring?

As to the second question here, I think Tim Duncan is the best unmentioned player, historically, I’ve seen in his prime. But in terms of the highest level of individual play, witnessed in person, there are two other Spurs that come to mind. 

In Game 4 of the 2013 Western Conference Finals, Tony Parker absolutely carved up the Grizzlies, with 37 points on 15-21 shooting in a close-out game. 

Herrington: Ja Morant’s new ink? Like so much else, a temptation to interpret

Four years later, in the first round, Kawhi Leonard went into cyborg-mode, averaging a 31-6-4 across six games with impossible 55-48-97 shooting splits.

Broadly speaking, the Grizzlies were +7.7 per 100 possessions (non-garbage-time) with Jackson slotted at “center,” per the tracking and designations at stats site Cleaning the Glass. But a lot of those possessions include Jackson alongside Brandon Clarke. Who’s the center and who’s the power forward in that alignment? Jaren’s taller, but Clarke plays more of the “center” role on offense. 

You can ask a similar question about pairings of Jackson and Xavier Tillman Sr. What Lowe was more specifically referring to in that podcast was lineups with Jackson as the lone real big, where he was on the floor in any lineup without Clarke, Tillman or Steven Adams. That’s where the +12 number comes from. Exclude Kenneth Lofton Jr. as well and it jumps to +13, in 749 possessions.

Those lineups, usually with Santi Aldama, David Roddy or Dillon Brooks as a face-up power forward, were very good on defense and great on offense even though, predictably, they rebounded poorly on both ends. 

You know what lineups were even better, and in a slightly larger sample? Jackson and Adams together. Those were +16 and in the 99th percentile on defense. 

Bane surprises kids at annual backpack drive

The takeaway here is that Jackson allows the team to play different ways, and I think they should explore that versatility even more. 

You know what was really great, albeit in only 400 or so possessions? Jackson and Aldama. Try +25 and 100th percentile offense. You know what else? Those same lineups got absolutely hammered in the playoffs against the Lakers and a peak-of-powers Anthony Davis. 

The Grizzlies need to take a longer look at this, though. I’d go out of my way to make Aldama/Jackson lineups part of the every night rotation. This kind of look, with Jackson at center flanked by a perimeter-oriented power forward, seems to be the way Team USA will be playing in this month’s FIBA World Cup tournament. Maybe that’s a preview of coming attractions.

I do think Luke Kennard is probably the answer, or at least the default answer headed into training camp. After Kennard’s scorching shooting last season, I think the team is anxious to give him greater deployment, and also anxious to see more of Kennard and Bane together. Starting both with Smart at point guard to begin the season is an easy way to accomplish those things.

That said, the Grizzlies really need at least one of the young, big wings (Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, Roddy) to take a meaningful step forward, and if any of them makes a strong case in training camp I could see that player rewarded with the starting nod. But, yeah, I think Kennard is the default answer.

In order:

• Opening night: Smart-Bane-Kennard-Jackson-Adams
• After Morant’s return: Morant-Bane-Smart-Jackson-Adams
• Playoffs: Morant-Bane-Smart-Jackson-Adams

Those are the working assumptions. 

I dealt with the opening night question earlier. As far as after Morant’s return, Smart’s stature and defensive “stopper” role suggests he should start. On the other hand, the collective size of a Morant-Bane-Smart perimeter trio isn’t ideal and it would probably to easier to toggle Morant and Smart across all 48 point guard minutes by bringing Smart off the bench. But will the Grizzlies really be willing to make Smart a bench player after giving up Tyus Jones and two first-rounders to acquire him?

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As far as the playoffs, availability will govern that, and can’t be projected. The more interesting question is about crunch-time lineups. Who’s the best theoretical fifth player to pair with a Morant-Bane-Smart-Jackson quartet? The answer could differ based on match-ups, but the best Adams alternative when the team wants to play smaller isn’t clear. This will be a season-long research project. 

I feel like a few good minutes against Steph Curry two years ago has been over-remembered as far as Williams’ on-ball defense goes. We’ll see on that, and pretty much everything else.

I like Williams a little better in lineups with Morant because I think he thrives in transition, where he can run the floor and finish above the rim. Morant now has fewer players to effectively run with him on this roster, and Williams can do that at least. I like him less alongside the Smart/Bane backcourt that will presumably open the season.

At full strength, with Morant and Bane as primary creators, Smart and Adams as secondary creators and Jackson needing to get more involved in the offense, an off-ball movement shooter is probably more valuable to work in amid those players than a mid-range shot creator would be. 

But I have more faith in Williams on the latter front. He’s had moments knocking down catch-and-shoot shots from the corners, but mostly has struggled as a 3-point shooter.

Based on NBA.com tracking data, Williams has shot 29% overall on 3-pointers, and the same percentage on catch-and-shoot 3s. He’s shot 41% on mid-range pull ups, and I think has shown a promising ability to create those shots, getting into the teeth of the defense on a dribble or two and using his size and bounce to rise up for open looks. Turning that penetration into playmaking for others? That’s further down the to-do list. 

A Williams pull-up – not unlike the Dillon Brooks pull-up – isn’t what you most want from your offense, but can bail out a possession. It’s probably a more useful tool in bench-heavy lineups.

After how sharp he looked in his injury-interrupted summer play, I’ll definitely be watching Williams closely in preseason. He’ll be 23 with a full year of pro hoops, so his time needs to be now, but he’s got a pretty deep list of main-roster wings ahead of him who all need minutes to develop. He would need to make a pretty persuasive case.

Unlike Williams, Lofton’s on the main roster, but he’ll also have to earn his way into the mix. With Clarke out for at least the first half of the season, however, Lofton’s closer to an opportunity. He’ll presumably slot in as the fifth big in a four-big rotation, which would put him next in line when other injuries or other absences occur, which they will. 

Grizzlies Mailbag: Will Desmond Bane be an All-Star?

But Lofton might also be competing with some of those wings. LaRavia and Roddy might really be better as small-ball power forwards. 

Realistically, this probably isn’t the season for Lofton in the main rotation, but is the season where he needs to make enough of a case for the Grizzlies to account for him going into 2024-2025.

Roddy’s proven the most in real NBA competition, but I’d still go with LaRavia, who has better positional length and shooting ability.

Last season, the Grizzlies went 35-6 at home and 16-25 on the road, a 19-game imbalance, and it wasn’t even the biggest in the league. The five greatest home/road splits of 2022-2023:

• Warriors: +22
• Grizzlies: +19
• Nuggets: +15
• Raptors: +13
• Pelicans: +12

Is that normal? In 2021-2022, the Grizzlies only had a +4 home swing (30-11 to 26-15), and even biggest home/road splits weren’t nearly that dramatic:

• Hawks: +11
• Warriors: +9
• Jazz: +9
• Lakers: +9
• Bulls, Clippers: +8

Because of COVID, you have to go back to 2018-2019 for the next most recent full season. The biggest splits there are somewhere in-between, with the Grizzlies at +9 missing the list.

• Spurs: +16
• Mavericks: +15
• Timberwolves: +14
• Nuggets: +14
• Wizards: +12

Unlike the Nuggets, with that thin Denver air, there doesn’t seem to be anything structural that would make the Grizzlies a particularly home-heavy team, though their status as the eastern-most West team probably makes West Coast trips harder.

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Given the particularly bad road performance last season, Morant’s season-altering road-trip transgression, and the report that Steven Adams admonished teammates (translated: Morant) about taking road trips more seriously, it’s tempting to cite Morant’s focus as the main culprit.

For what it’s worth, Morant’s individual numbers were about the same on the road as at home. Still, I think that’s probably a factor, along with a younger supporting cast than in the previous season and just some single-season luck/variance. 

I’d be surprised if the splits were that dramatic this coming season. One thing is clear: Last year’s road struggles will be remembered, which should help with the focus.

THERE’S MORE TO LIFE THAN BASKETBALL

Once again, summer has a lot more than basketball on our minds. 

I answered Parker’s first question up top. As for the second, I try to focus most of my screen time on movies. (Most recent new-to-me watch: Michael Mann’s 1981 crime flick “Thief,” the feature debut of the guy who went on to do “Miami Vice” and “Heat.”)

I tend to have one or two TV series going at a time. Right now, that’s “Justified: City Primeval” on FX/Hulu and “Winning Time” on HBO/Max. Both of these are very “for me” shows, “Winning Time” (about the 1980s Los Angeles Lakers) for obvious reasons, “Justified” because I’m a fan of the earlier series and even more so of Elmore Leonard, the crime-fiction novelist whose work is being adapted.

I’m not at all sure “Winning Time” is good. I think it’s over-stuffed and over-stylized. But a lot of the elements work and I’m going to watch every second of it regardless. 

Calkins: Is there enough cash for the Grizzlies and the football stadium? Turns out, maybe not.

My two favorite series this year are a lot of people’s two favorite series this year: “The Bear” and “Succession.” There are a lot of people who really, really love “The Bear,” to the degree that it might annoy you. I am that guy. 

Others I’ve watched this year, in order of approval: “The Last of Us,” “Daisy Jones & the Six” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” 

What’s next? I’m open to recommendations. I’ve never seen an episode of “Reservation Dogs’ and feel like that’s a good bet. I’m also contemplating “Full Circle,” Steven Soderbergh’s new series for HBO/Max. 

Our first “Threads” question.

Baseball was probably the first sport I really cared about, but I’ve long evolved into an off-and-on, mostly theoretical fan. I’ve been more “on” of late, but what that means is that I’m currently reading (and greatly enjoying) Joe Posnanski’s book “The Baseball 100” for a book club with college friends, I’ve been trying (and mostly failing) to complete baseball Immaculate Grids (shout out to me for remembering that Rick Honeycutt pitched for both the Dodgers and A’s) and, on a recent vacation, I both took a tour of Fenway Park and obtained a Montreal Expos cap. 

Watching regular-season baseball games? Haven’t quite gotten (back) to that yet. Baseball is great for reading, card collecting and thinking about, though. Discovering Bill James in middle school was basically my introduction to critical thinking. 

Speaking of Montreal. We went with our kids for a couple of days and really want to go back without our kids. Sorry kids! Really my favorite thing was just the feel of the neighborhoods in Plateau-Mont-Royal and Mile End, that mix of restaurants, bagel/coffee shops, stores, parks and apartments. It’s a good hang. 

I’ve been to Toronto, but that was a while ago now. Never been to Vancouver. Would love to someday.

New York is the greatest. Anything you’d want to do (or eat) and easy to navigate. Other NBA cities I’ve visited I particularly enjoy or would like to get back to, for reasons unrelated to basketball: Chicago, Portland, Denver.

I wish I had a pat answer for this. Some of my old favorites (RIP always, Frank’s Deli) are gone and I will, of course, set aside burgers and BBQ. 

Some off-the-dome contenders: Any of the tortas at Las Tortugas Deli Mexicana, the South Philly at Fino’s (though I liked old bread better), the HEELS at South Point Grocery (a kind of “elevated” PB&J), a good banh mi anywhere but most recently at Le Delights and Pho 4ever, the off the menu BBQ shrimp po-boy at Second Line, fried chicken sandwiches at Loaf. More modestly, I recently had a really good BLTA, something I rarely order out, at Cafe Eclectic, my neighborhood spot. That lemony mayo really popped. 

This is always and forever a Subject for Further Research. What did I miss?