Less than a week before the NBA Draft, the Memphis Grizzlies’ offseason could sprawl in any number of directions, but starts with three unavoidable, potentially interrelated questions.

A few weeks ago, I tackled the first one, looking at players the Grizzlies could take with their ninth overall pick. We’ll circle back to that topic again one more time next week.

Last week, I took on the second big question, the addition of a rotation-level center, a clear need lead executive Zach Kleiman has publicly vowed to address.

Grizzlies podcast: What should Memphis do with Luke Kennard?

Now, here’s the third: a decision about the future of reserve scoring guard Luke Kennard.

With 13 of the team’s 15 main-roster spots already filled (for the moment, at least) next season, the team doesn’t really have a notable free agent. 

Forward Yuta Watanabe will apparently not exercise his player option for next season and head back to Japan. Forward Lamar Stevens is an unrestricted free agent, but the kind of back-of-the-roster option whose future will wait until deeper into the process.

That leaves Kennard as the most uncertain of the team’s incumbent players. The Grizzlies hold a team option for roughly $14.8 million next season with a decision date of June 29.

Official action may wait until that date, but a real decision likely will not, because Kennard’s future is ultimately inseparable from the draft itself and the macro question of what the Grizzlies can accomplish this offseason.

Kennard on the court

The Kennard question should begin with how valuable he might be on the floor for the Grizzlies next season. 

In Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, the team has its starting backcourt set. Since trading for Kennard a season-and-a-half ago, the Grizzlies have acquired veteran Marcus Smart and developed Vince Williams Jr., adding two more versatile perimeter options. That might make Kennard the team’s fifth option on the guard/wing depth chart. Even that doesn’t account for the swift rise of GG Jackson, who’s likely to command minutes at small forward.

Hot Grizz Summer: In one week, a summer of intrigue starts in Memphis

But Smart, Williams and Jackson are less likely to provide the one thing Kennard boasts and that the team badly needs: elite 3-point shooting.

Kennard’s one of the best pure shooters in the world. He’s a career 44% from long range, but even that lofty performance might sell him short. He’s been above that mark in each of the past four seasons. 

And Kennard’s not entirely one-dimensional. He took on more ball handling by necessity last season. His assist production rose, though so did his turnover rate. He’s also a pretty decent defensive rebounder. 

A deadeye shooter who can move the ball and chip in on the boards is valuable. But Kennard’s not much of a scoring threat inside the arc and limited on defense. There are also durability concerns on a roster that already has too many of those. 

Kennard’s shooting helps shore up one of Morant’s two main on-court weaknesses. But Kennard’s defense exacerbates Morant’s other weakness.

Herrington: Centers possibly pinging on Memphis Grizzlies’ radar

The Grizzlies trade for Kennard was a bet on the lift of his shooting overcoming the drag of his defense, on that shooting as a tipping point on a team that could sustain Kennard’s defense. In his first partial season with the Grizzlies, the team played great with Kennard alongside either Morant or Bane. The evidence last season, like all the rest, was more scant and more compromised. 

Ultimately, the Grizzlies traded for Kennard right before injuries and off-court issues torpedoed the team for a season and a half. Are they going to part ways with him without ever finding out if Kennard’s rare shooting talent can raise the team’s ceiling? 

What are the Grizzlies willing to spend?

The Kennard question also hinges on how much the Grizzlies are willing to spend on player payroll this season. 

Keeping Kennard on his $14.8 million option means not only paying luxury tax for the first time in a generation but likely operating above what the NBA is calling the “first apron” — roughly $179 million — of a redesigned tax system, which comes with stiffer penalties and more restrictions. If the Grizzlies were willing to cross that “first apron,” keeping Kennard would still leave both the room and mechanisms to add from there, up to the $190 million “second apron.”

Herrington: Surveying the Grizzlies’ post-draft-lottery landscape

By contrast, declining Kennard’s option and losing him in free agency creates a path where the team could actually stay fully under the luxury-tax line of roughly $171 million. They could still spend their way into the tax via other mechanisms but would almost certainly operate under the first apron. 

Spending isn’t its own reward. It’s a by-product of trying to improve a team, and more spending doesn’t always equal better results.

But the thought here is the Grizzlies should be willing to not only pay the tax but to cross the first-apron threshold if it means increasing the odds of a deep playoff run. 

The team’s best players are all entering their mid-20s and the Western Conference is open, as witnessed by a fifth-seed Dallas Mavericks landing in the NBA Finals. 

The time is now, with or without Kennard.

The five potential ways the Kennard decision could play out:

Path 1: Agree on a new multi-season contract

The Grizzlies could decline their option on Kennard with an agreement in place for a new, multi-season contract. 

The hunch here is that this would be a preference for both parties, so why wouldn’t it happen?

Grizzlies Podcast: Updates from the NBA lottery and combine

The trick is finding a salary point that’s agreeable for both sides. 

One imagines a two-year deal starting at $10 million would be amenable to the Grizzlies. One imagines that a three-year deal starting above the league’s mid-level exception, probably Kennard’s high-water mark in free agency, might be amenable to Kennard’s camp. That would be something like three years and $42 million. Would the Grizzlies do that? Is there something in-between both could agree on? 

What is the value is for the Grizzlies next season in getting Kennard for a few million less, at the expense of making a longer commitment? Keeping Kennard at any reasonable salary while also addressing the team’s frontcourt issues would seem to mean paying the tax. Would shaving a little off Kennard’s salary next season enable the team to stay under the first apron? That would likely mean solving the frontcourt issues in the draft or with only very modest salary increases in trade/free agency. Is this worth it?

As much as Kennard might want to remain in Memphis, at what point would he prefer to test the free-agent market instead? 

Path 2: Retain Kennard on his current contract

Maybe $14.8 million seems a little rich for Kennard, especially with where he may land in the rotational pecking order. But it’s only one year, and it’s an important year.

Keeping Kennard on his current contract would likely mean crossing the “first apron.” But with the team’s competitive hopes high and a rising cap likely to lessen the tax strain in 2025-2026, maybe this is precisely the right season to splurge.

Even if the Grizzlies picked up the option with the notion of keeping Kennard’s shooting in the mix all season, doing so would also preserve Kennard’s mid-level salary for potential trade purposes later.

Path 3: Trade Kennard during draft week

If the Grizzlies and Kennard don’t agree to a new multiyear deal before the draft, the first question for the team won’t be whether they want to keep Kennard for $14.8 million but rather whether they’re willing to spend past the first apron.

If the answer to the first question is no but the second is still yes, then they’ll have a window to use Kennard’s contract as a salary match for trades before their option decision. The team would have to pick up the option in order to trade Kennard, but a $14.8 million expiring salary attached to a great shooter could be useful, especially if the team wanted to pursue a veteran center on a larger contract.

Inside the drawing room: Should Memphis use or trade the No. 9 pick?

If there’s a trade to be made that requires a significant salary match, there are other ways to get there. Salary matches north of $20 million could include Smart instead, though that seems unlikely. Salary matches south of $15 million could be cobbled together among multiple smaller contracts — Ziaire Williams, John Konchar, etc.

But in the scenario where the Grizzlies are willing to spend beyond the first apron but don’t want to devote nearly $15 million of still-limited salary space to what could be their sixth or seventh most important perimeter player, trading Kennard would be a way to shift that spending elsewhere on the roster. 

Path 4: Decline the option and lose Kennard in free agency

Subtracting Kennard’s $14.8 million from the books would bring the Grizzlies roughly $7 million below the tax line and would give the team access to the NBA’s full mid-level free agency exception (roughly $13 million) or likely allow the team to use their trade exception from last season’s Steven Adams deal (roughly $12.6 million).

A good reason to decline Kennard’s option would be if the team were willing to replace most of that salary via these exceptions and believed they could get more on-court value for their salary space that way.

But this could also be how the Grizzlies address their needs while ducking the tax entirely.

Herrington: Bad-luck lottery bump is only the start of Grizzlies’ offseason journey

In this scenario, after drafting and keeping players with their draft picks at 9 and 39, the Grizzlies would be $7 million below the tax line with only one open roster spot. They would presumably either add a rotation-caliber center or replace Kennard’s bench shooting with their lottery pick and then attempt to fill the other need by free agency or trade, using only the roughly $7 million left below the tax. 

There’s a rationale for trying to get under the tax beyond just spending less. Teams will be wary of a “repeater” penalty clause triggered by spending past the tax line in multiple consecutive seasons. But to reiterate an earlier assertion, I think this is a season to push forward, not pull back. The Grizzlies should focus on building the best roster possible, wherever that lands them. 

In all scenarios, other trades could free up more salary flexibility, but that might be particularly useful in this scenario.

Path 5: Decline the option and re-sign Kennard in free agency

This seems the least likely option, but I wouldn’t rule it out. 

The Grizzlies will make Kennard an offer for a new contract. Perhaps they already have. If this offer is not ultimately acceptable, Kennard will force a choice: Keep him for $14.8 million or risk him leaving in free agency.

Herrington: Memphis Grizzlies 2024 offseason roster rankings, Part 2

But who’s to say Kennard will find a free-agent market greater than whatever the Grizzlies are offering?

Declining Kennard’s option for next season without a new deal already in place does not preclude still re-signing him. The Grizzlies can decline the option while maintaining “Bird Rights,” the clause that allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents. 

Which path should the Grizzlies pursue? I’m pretty sure they’ll pursue the first, but that one’s a two-way street. In all cases, the best path is ultimately dependent on what else is available down each road. And that’s difficult to know.