According to a recent survey conducted on behalf of The Daily Memphian, most respondents in the city and county view crime as a major problem — and one they think has gotten worse in the past five years. 

More than 85% of respondents within Memphis and Shelby County see crime as a major problem, and 62% believe the number of crime incidents occurring are much higher than they were five years ago. 

But how does that perception compare to real world data? 

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“The perception is that crime is up. But the reality is that crime is up,” said Bill Gibbons, president of the Memphis-Shelby Crime Commission. “No doubt about it.”

According to data compiled by The Daily Memphian from the City of Memphis Data Hub, auto burglaries and auto thefts spiked by 50% and 177%, respectively, from 2018 to 2022. 

Overall, homicides also increased by 65% and aggravated assaults increased by 43% from 2018 to 2022, though incidents of those crimes were at their highest in 2021. 

For the first quarter of 2023, which is Jan. 1 through March 31, versus the first quarter of 2018:

• Auto thefts were up 189% 
• Homicides were up 171%
• Auto burglaries were up 65%
• Aggravated assaults were up 46% 

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Gibbons said that in 2021, the Crime Commission commissioned a similar poll on crime, which indicated crime and public safety were the No. 2 concern for respondents. And gun violence, by far, was people’s biggest concern. 

“The poll conducted by The Daily Memphian is very, very consistent with what that poll back in 2021 showed,” Gibbons said. “There’s a lot of consistency there.”

According to Gibbons, about 75% of violent crimes now involve guns versus a decade ago, when fewer than 50% of those crimes involved guns. 

Gibbons also said the concern with crime could be coming from an increase in juvenile offenses and the fact that overall crime has become more widespread geographically. 

“Crime is everywhere, much more than it was before the pandemic,” said Ben Adams, board chair of the Crime Commission. “So I think everybody’s on edge. It’s understandable.”

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According to The Daily Memphian’s poll, 23% of Memphis residents and 25% of Shelby County residents have been victims of crime in the past year. But 70% of Memphis residents and 72% of county residents know someone who has been a victim of crime.

“If we haven’t been violated, we all know somebody that has,” Adams said. 

Major property crimes also rose 43.5% in Memphis for the first three months of 2023 versus the first quarter of the year before, according to a Crime Commission report released in April. This rise was driven, in part, by a 155% increase in vehicle thefts and a 23% increase in thefts from vehicles.

“It just seems like there’s no rhyme or reason,” said Shelby County Commissioner Britney Thornton. “I’m literally just waiting on the day that’s going to happen to me.”

Shelby County Commissioner Miska Clay Bibbs said she was a victim of auto burglary last year when someone took her purse out of her car while she was at the grocery store. She was the second of three theft victims that day by an alleged repeat offender.

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“He had done a circle,” Clay Bibbs said. “He was very bold and brazen. And it wasn’t a situation where I left my purse … and he busted the window to get it out. That wasn’t it. I was literally getting in the car myself. And they opened up my passenger door as my doors were unlocking.”

A total of 39% of city respondents and 53% of county respondents say they have considered moving away because of the crime. 

Clay Bibbs wasn’t surprised to learn more county residents are contemplating leaving the area than Memphis residents are, adding that people began to move outside the city limits decades ago to get away from the crime. Even as crime has become more widespread, the thinking is the same. 

“The way those (municipalities) sold their communities about why you should move here is because it’s ‘safer,’” Clay Bibbs said. “And now that they see that that’s not necessarily the case anymore, I’m not surprised to see that number is higher.”

But Thornton said avoiding crime, especially auto thefts, is becoming next to impossible as rates climb across the nation.

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“For the people who said that they wanted to move outside of Memphis, where are you going to go?” Thornton said. 

She also thinks people may be reacting too strongly to the recent rise in violent crime, pointing to historical crime numbers. According to data from the FBI, Memphis had 214 homicides in 1995. In 2019, the city saw a similar figure, 224.

But in 2021, there were 360 homicides in Memphis; last year, there were 309. 

Both Gibbons and Adams said the community should be involved in fighting crime in an area instead of leaving it. 

“I think if residents start moving away, that just makes the problem worse, when law-abiding citizens decide to move away,” Gibbons said. “That’s not the answer. The answer is to fight back.”

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Both Clay Bibbs and Thornton said there needs to be more investment in local communities, in areas such as education, transportation and blight reduction. 

Thornton also said she believes officials should study the income, education, location and age breakdown of the people driving the shifts in crime. 

“I’ve always just wondered, just to try to typecast who are the people who are more likely to participate in that type of behavior and what can we do from a preventative standpoint to be able to reduce the amount of people who choose to be in that lifestyle?” Thornton said.

Samuel Hardiman contributed to this report.