Data dive: Numbers behind the story of Memphis’ crime decline
The Daily Memphian delved into the numbers behind the percentages recently shared by the Memphis Police Department. (Rob Moore/The Daily Memphian file)
The Memphis Police Department recently showcased the downward trend of local crime statistics.
The department didn’t present any actual numbers, though, relying instead on percentage declines. So The Daily Memphian went data diving for the numbers behind the percentages that MPD presented July 1.
The trend lines are clear on almost all fronts. After reaching high points in 2023, crime in Memphis is trending down at a higher rate through the first half of 2025 than it did through the first half of 2024.
Using the City of Memphis Safer Communities Dashboard, we pulled the following seven metrics: total part 1 crimes, aggravated assault, burglary, homicide, nonfatal shooting incidents, motor vehicle theft and robbery. (Part 1 crimes are the more serious offenses. They include many of the categories we isolated and also some we didn’t, such as forcible rape, human trafficking and arson.)
All of the metrics below total the first half of each year, Jan. 1-June 30. Almost all of them contain six years of data, 2020-2025, although for nonfatal shooting incidents, the dashboard only provided four years, 2022-2025.
Percentage declines calculated from the dashboard’s numbers align closely with those that MPD presented, but not all of the data points MPD highlighted were available using the dashboard. The department did not provide the numbers it used to create the percentages when The Daily Memphian requested them.
Memphis data mirrors other U.S. cities
Memphis isn’t alone in touting its crime decline as cities across the U.S. are reporting safer stats.
New York Police Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch said New York City had the lowest number of shooting victims in recorded history through the first half of this year. There were 397 shooting victims in the first six months of the year, down 24% from the same period in 2024. Murders there dropped 23% in the same period, from 146 to 190.
The Baltimore Police Department said homicides there have fallen 22% this year, from 88 to 68. Nonfatal shootings there are down 19%, from 204 in the first half of 2024 to 164 in 2025.
And Chicago saw its homicide count fall 33% through the first six months of the year compared to 2024, from 289 to 192.
Perception is reality in almost all the ways, a fact MPD Chief C.J. Davis acknowledged in her July 1 presentation.
When asked how the city can change its perception and get people to believe the data, she said: “While the data tells one part of the story, what matters is that people in our neighborhoods are starting to feel the difference in their homes, at work and as they raise their families here in our city.”
Davis also acknowledged that while the lower numbers are positive, there is more progress to be made.
“We want to get to a point where we don’t have to talk about homicides in our city, but we are certainly speaking about far less violent offenses than we have had in the past,” she said.
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Jane Donahoe
Jane Donahoe is The Daily Memphian’s metro editor. She has a Bachelor of Arts in communications with a concentration in newspaper editorial writing from the University of Memphis. She’s worked as an editor for several other local publications, including the Memphis Business Journal and The Daily News.
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