OKLAHOMA CITY — As the Memphis Grizzlies dig themselves from the rumble of an overwhelmed playoff-series Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, just about everyone involved is facing some questions. 

There’s an interim head coach (Tuomas Iisalo) and rookie center (Zach Edey) getting run over in their NBA playoff debuts.

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There’s a star guard (Ja Morant) who, by his own declaration, liked his shots in Game 1, but only made six of the 17, while debuting some shiny new sneakers in a 51-point blowout loss. 

Only reserve big man Marvin Bagley III, somehow playing his first NBA playoff game in his seventh season, came out looking pretty good Sunday. 

But there was only one player in a Grizzlies uniform Sunday, nearly certain to have a north-of-$200-million — maybe north of $300 million? — contract extension offered to him this summer. 

That was Jaren Jackson Jr.

And in his 24th career playoff game in his own seventh season, Jackson scored a career playoff low 4 points, with as many turnovers (3) as rebounds and not a single block for the former Defensive Player of the Year. 

For Jackson, the Game 2 spotlight may be brightest.

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Jackson’s playoff past and recent evolution

Those four points might have been a career playoff low for Jackson, but it has too much company.

Jackson went for more than 30 points in Game 1 against the Golden State Warriors in 2022 and again in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023. But those games are outliers.

Through 24 playoff games, Jackson’s scored fewer than 10 points as many times as he’s scored more than 20.

His career playoff averages: 15 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks, shooting 39% from the floor and 33% from 3-point range. 

But past performance isn’t supposed to guarantee future results. 

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Jackson evolved into a more dynamic scorer a year ago, amid a season so lost for the Grizzlies that he didn’t get an opportunity to showcase it in the playoffs.

Even as a rookie, Jackson was a viable if not dynamic post threat. In his second season, he emerged as a meaningful 3-point shooter. 

It was last season that Jackson’s ball-handling and shooting touch came together to make him a go-to scorer off the dribble. 

Early this season, Jackson was putting the full package together. While the Grizzlies’ strategy to play their stars less than any other NBA team was obscuring it, only the league’s handful of MVP candidates were scoring more per minute than Jackson. 

As the team’s offensive approach — even before a March coaching change — began to shift in February toward more screening actions meant to re-engage Morant in the offense, Jackson’s scoring primacy began to decline slightly.

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This trend seems to have been accelerated after a late-season coaching change and a lean even more into an offense that emphasized Edey’s screening for Morant and Desmond Bane. 

Prior to the All-Star break, Jackson averaged 28 points per 36 minutes, shooting 50% from the floor on roughly 20 field-goal attempts per 36, getting to the free-throw line for seven attempts per 36.

In eight regular-season appearances after the coaching change, Jackson averaged 22 points per 36 minutes, shooting 44% from the floor on roughly 17 field-goal attempts per 36, getting to the free-throw line for five attempts per 36.

And maybe that’s OK. The goal of an offense isn’t to maximize one player or another but to blend them for the best team outcome. Jackson’s 3-point attempt rate went up a little with more time spent spacing for guard/center actions, and he shot 38% on those attempts. Jackson’s versatility allows him to fit in whichever way the offense bends.

But the best version of Jackson should be a matchup problem for any defender, and against the best defense in basketball, the Grizzlies now need both more and better from Jackson. 

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Which Jackson will show up in Game 2?

“In every area, I can get better. There’s so much room for improvement after a loss like that,” said Jackson after Sunday’s game. 

“You can’t overthink things because that’ll just set you back for the next game. But yeah, I’m gonna figure out a way to play better and get myself involved and get myself in the series and then I’ll be good,” said Jackson.

“I’m going to watch (Game 1 video) the whole game. I’m going to watch every single play. I’m definitely going to watch with intent.”

Game 1 presented a blend of these core ways to engage Jackson in the offense: Spot-up jumpers, post-ups and face-up attack opportunities. (Missing, as it so often is: Using Jackson in screen-and-roll plays with Morant.)

By my count, Jackson had 14 halfcourt touches that resulted in a shot, an assist or a turnover, and they were balanced among these three types: Five spot-ups, five post-ups and four perimeter face-ups. 

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The Grizzlies got no points from the spot-ups. Jackson’s one made shot was waved off because his heel was over the sideline. One miss was a hot-potato shot off a bad pass against an about-to-expire shot clock. The other three were decent looks that Jackson just missed. He had a lot of company in a game where the entire team shot under 18% from 3, but the Grizzlies need him to start making shots. 

The Grizzlies got two points from the five post-ups. Jackson is facing smaller defenders on many of these, but great smaller defenders assisted by quick double teams. Against the Thunder, Jackson needs deeper touches and needs to make quicker decisions. And then he just needs to make some shots. 

The four face-ups yielded four points. Three of these came from pitchout passes from penetrating guards, where Jackson caught the ball already on the move at the top of the key, with space and momentum to attack. Jackson drove on two of these, scoring once and having a good shot rim out on the other. On the third, Edey ducked in and Jackson found him at the rim for a dunk. (The apparent recent increase in Jackson-to-Edey looks is good evidence that these pieces can fit.)

All three possessions felt like fresh air in a claustrophobic game. 

Perhaps it was these possessions, in part, that Iisalo was alluding to after the team’s practice on Tuesday, when he talked about the importance of quicker decisions and multiple options against this elite Oklahoma City defense. 

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“If you only have one point of attack against this defense, it will be very difficult. They do a great job of corralling the ball-handler and protecting the rim at the same time. Even though you might run the pick-and-roll with a two-man game, those (other) three players have to stay extremely connected. A lot of time it will go to them anyway for the ultimate decision-making,” said Iisalo.

“The challenge with the Thunder specifically is they are so fast to recover that those windows are very small, smaller than with other teams. This is an adjustment every time you play them and I think in Game 2 already we will be more adjusted to that.”

Getting Jackson more of these kinds of touches may come as a by-product of a team-wide adjustment in Game 2. But the main thing is that Jackson needs to be more productive across the board. He needs to make some of his spot-up 3s. He needs to produce more on his post-ups. He has the ability to produce in all three of these offensive settings, and the Grizzlies need him to do so. 

“I’ve dealt with a lot of different coverages, a lot of different bodies, different guys guarding me with different tendencies,” said Jackson on Sunday. “Some are quicker, some are (stronger), so you kind of try to go at what their weaknesses are at the time. Getting downhill, shooting 3s. I feel like there’s a lot of ways I can attack and I just have to find them.”

The Grizzlies need a more productive Jackson, and if they get it against this Thunder defense, which is terrorizing the team’s guards and will likely continue to do so, they need more Jackson period. 

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Big decisions await

For the Grizzlies, two important events took place last Tuesday, April 15. 

One happened in public: The team’s play-in game with the Golden State Warriors, where the Grizzlies lost. 

The other happened in private: The deadline for NBA awards voters to submit their ballots.

It’ll likely be another month or so before we learn whether Jackson will make the All-NBA team, but some ballots have been published by individual voters and the early evidence suggests it could be dicey for Jackson: That he’s likely on the knife’s edge between “third team” and “no team.”

I wrote about this earlier this month, and Jackson’s status only grew more wobbly in the season’s final weeks as the team’s slide, amid Jackson’s own waning production, continued to an eighth-place regular-season finish. 

As most regular readers now know well, there’s more than pride on the line for Jackson.

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Jackson is already under contract for next season, set to enter free agency in the summer of 2026. But if Jackson makes an All-NBA team, it will trigger “supermax” eligibility, enabling the Grizzlies to offer Jackson a contract extension this summer of up to five years for as much as $350 million. 

Even if Jackson doesn’t make All-NBA, the Grizzlies will still have the ability to maneuver their way to making him a “renegotiate-and-extend” offer this summer, one that would give Jackson an immediate raise and a four-year extension that could be for as much as $240 million in new salary, more this summer than he could get from any other team next summer. 

While the contract permutations are nearly endless, one truth is certain: Whether it’s this summer or next summer, via Jackson reaching “supermax” eligibility or not, the Grizzlies will always be able to offer Jackson more money and in some scenarios, more years than any other team. 

But the potential range remains wide and the questions profound: How much are the Grizzlies willing to offer and when? What is Jackson willing to take and when? How much does the team’s direction, Jackson’s on-court role and the coaching decision to be made this summer matter?

And now: How does Jackson’s playoff performance impact that from either perspective? 

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As good as Jackson has been, the full “supermax” was really meant for the LeBron Jameses, Stephen Currys and Nikola Jokics of the world. Not for very good players who sneak onto a single third-team All-NBA. And not for players who average 15 points a game in the playoffs and shoot under 40%.

It’s past time for Jackson to prove he can be more in playoff basketball.

Doing so now against the best defense in recent NBA memory, with what could be only three more chances, presents a mighty challenge.