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Herrington: A bubble wrap-up as Ja Morant and the Grizzlies leave Orlando

By , Daily Memphian Published: August 16, 2020 9:12 PM CT
Chris Herrington
Daily Memphian

Chris Herrington

Chris Herrington has covered the Memphis Grizzlies, in one way or another, since the franchise’s second season in Memphis, while also writing about music, movies, food and civic life. As far as he knows, he’s the only member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association who is also a member of a film critics group and has also voted in national music critic polls for Rolling Stone and the Village Voice (RIP). He and his wife have two kids and, for reasons that sometimes elude him, three dogs.

That game. 

Drew Hill and Geoff Calkins covered it in real time, so I won’t dwell on it here. But it’s hard to imagine a season-ending loss ultimately being so satisfying. 


Ja Morant dazzles, but Grizzlies’ season ends in play-in loss to Portland


Ja Morant had arguably his biggest game on his biggest stage. The secondary guys the Grizzlies had to have play well — Dillon Brooks, Jonas Valanciunas — came through. And they got enough wildcard contributions — tip of the hat to Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke — to take a more experienced and, for now, more talented team to the wire. They did everything they needed to win except lock up CJ McCollum at the end, and Grizzlies fans with some scar tissue have seen that play before. 

Given the Morant coming-out-party vibe and the game’s unprecedented circumstances, it will take its place among the franchise’s more memorable games. 

So after a rough start, the Grizzlies leave Orlando in good spirits. But do they leave feeling any differently about their team as we turn to a next season whose timing and shape remains unknown?


NBA restart: Handing out Memphis Grizzlies bubble awards


Point guard Tyus Jones’ impact was felt by his absence and it remains a bummer that we still haven’t seen Justise Winslow in a Grizzlies uniform. But leaving veteran role playersGorgui Dieng and Anthony Tolliver aside, here’s a post-bubble post-mortem on the other Grizzlies players of consequence:

Ja Morant

Morant led the bubble in assists and snuck his way into the Top 10 on the season as a result. He should live there for the next decade, at a minimum. 

After averaging 30 minutes a night before the pause, Morant averaged more than 38 in Orlando, including more than 40 in three of his last four games. He finished his trip, in succession, with his second career triple-double — he’ll pass Marc Gasol’s franchise record of five maybe as soon as next season — and a career-high 35 points. Ok, that won’t actually count as a new career high. Morant will have to settle for being the NBA’s all-time leading play-in-game scorer.

We saw what Playoff Ja looks like, and now we yearn to see more. 

If Morant’s efficiency took a hit as his burden increased, that’s only to be expected. He turned 21 in Orlando and leaves Florida having underlined what was already known: He’s a star already, with a chance to be the best lead guard in the game. Oh, and he apparently played half his games with a fractured thumb.


Calkins: For Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, this is what makes the future magnificent


Jaren Jackson Jr.

While the Grizzlies took tough losses to Portland and San Antonio to open Orlando play, the gleaming silver lining was the little offensive leap taken by a second-year big man still not legal drinking age. The 25 points Jackson averaged across a tantalizing three games didn’t only come with high-volume 3-point shooting but with what looked like a more aggressive and expansive off-the-dribble game.

And yet the Grizzlies have to leave Orlando with some concerns. History suggests that Jackson’s torn meniscus shouldn’t be that big of a deal, and he seems likely to be ready for the start of next season. But Jackson’s now been sidelined by three separate lower-body injuries in his first two seasons. 

Dillon Brooks

It was a wild ride for Brooks in Orlando, but isn’t it always? Through the Grizzlies’ first four bubble games, all losses, Brooks was shooting 38% on lots of attempts, had fouled out twice and ended the two-point loss to the Spurs with a foul that provoked meltdowns across Memphis. Brooks was better the rest of the way and, not at all coincidentally, so were the Grizzlies. In the end, his shooting numbers were pretty close to his career norms.

Brooks finished strong. He scored 20 in the elimination game and if Damian Lillard, whom Brooks guarded for much of the game, went for 31, that was a low scoring game for Lillard in Orlando. (And Dame shot only 6-15 from the floor.)

If the problems in Brooks’ game are sometimes glaring, he left us with a reminder of his value: That young wing players capable of impacting both ends of the floor — who can make shots and are willing to dig in defensively — are hard to come by. Finding Brooks’ proper, productive place in the team’s offensive pecking order remains a franchise project, but, at 24, Brooks will enter a three-year, $35 million contract extension. You’d imagine the Grizzlies still feel pretty good about that. 

Jonas Valanciunas

Valanciunas is a man; he’s 28. There wasn’t much to really learn about him in this small sample. But let’s shout out a guy who notched his first career triple-double (26-19-12) in an elimination game against Milwaukee and then went for 22-17-6 in another elimination game against Portland. That’s big-time production in big spots. As a true center, Valanciunas’ fortunes — particularly on defense — can be more matchup-dependent than some other types of players, but the bubble was a reminder that he’s a great rebounder and really good interior scorer. He’s also still quite young for a guy who just completed his eighth NBA season. The Grizzlies locked Valanciunas in for what should continue to be his prime and should feel good about that. 

Kyle Anderson

Let’s remember, the play-in against Portland was looking like a blowout early and the Grizzlies got back into that game with Anderson on the ball, working the middle of the floor alongside Valanciunas. It wasn’t the first time in the bubble that this duo showed a knack for generating halfcourt offense. Anderson is a great passer at 6’9” and has proven adept at finding the big man on the move in the tightest of spaces.

At the time the season was suspended in March, Anderson was the Grizzlies’ starting power forward, shifting over and moving up due to the injury absences of Jackson and Brandon Clarke. In the bubble, with Winslow out, Anderson started at small forward and then, with Jones out, shifted to backup point guard. 

Anderson at backup point guard was something that former head coach J.B. Bickerstaff touted in the weeks and months after the Grizzlies signed Anderson, but when the real games began he never tried it, even when the stakes were pretty low. Necessity prompted it in Orlando, and while it’s not a preference, there’s now evidence that it can work. There’s been ample reason to wonder how Anderson fits as this team evolves, but he demonstrated the value of his versatility in Orlando.

And what happened to that improved shooting he flashed in the scrimmages? The volume in those games was a little fluky, but the more comfortable form and better results were there in the bubble. After shooting 26% from 3-point range and 62% from the free-throw line as a Grizzly before Orlando, a healthier Anderson shot 9-24 (38%) and 10-13 (77%), respectively, in these games. Those percentages aren’t guaranteed to duplicate next season, but there’s reason to expect generally better — if still low-volume — shooting to carry over. 

Brandon Clarke

Clarke’s four 3-pointers against Portland in the play-in were an anomaly; he didn’t stick as a starter in Jackson’s absence presumably because he couldn’t guarantee consistent spacing to help Morant and Valanciunas operate. If Clarke’s overall bubble play was disappointing to some, that may have been a by-product of too-high expectations. Clarke’s play leaving Orlando didn’t scream “this difference-maker must be made a starter.” But it continued to say, this high-energy, high-efficiency forward is a great guy to have in the rotation. 

Grayson Allen

Because everyone already felt great about Morant going into Orlando and because Jackson’s injury offsets his skill growth, Allen might be the one rookie-contract player for the Grizzlies who leaves Orlando with rising expectations. 

Allen shot 24-51 (47%) from 3-point range in Orlando. For a roster perpetually starved for shooting and suddenly hit by injuries, Allen quickly rose from “will he play?” to “first guard off the bench.” But did the clock strike midnight before our eyes? Allen got hot as a standstill shooter mid-bubble, but went 2-7 from deep against a Celtics defense that chose to respect his shot. In his final two games in Orlando, Allen shot 1-3 from beyond the arc across 50 minutes. 

Facing elimination in the late fourth quarter against Portland, the Grizzlies played Allen for shooting and spacing. Would they have been better off with Anderson or Melton for defense?

The read here is that there’s reason to have some faith in Allen’s shooting, but also to wonder if he can do enough other things to be a rotation constant. Either way, he’s shown enough that the Grizzlies will feel good about having picked up their team option for next season. 

De’Anthony Melton

It has never been a strength, but Melton’s shooting in Orlando was unspeakable — he was even terrible at the foul line. And he proved erratic enough on the ball that it quickly became clear that Anderson would be the team’s real back-up point guard. A growing difference-maker off the bench before the regular season’s suspension, Melton fell behind Allen in the minutes pecking order. It was a no good, very bad bubble. 

And yet … the Grizzlies were still substantially better in Melton’s minutes than in Allen’s. He made impact plays in the team’s best bubble win (over Oklahoma City) and had a six-steal game against Toronto. Even if you give Melton a mulligan on the shooting, his failure to step into the backup point guard role in Tyus Jones’ absence is a notable demerit. He’s still only 22 and a restricted free agent this offseason. How much do the Grizzlies value Melton’s defense and backcourt rebounding and how much are they willing to invest to keep him? The bet here is that he’s back, but the bubble play does cast more doubt.

Josh Jackson

With an opportunity created by the team’s trade-deadline shakeup and Winslow’s injury, Jackson was playing the best basketball of his young career back in March. Despite that, he clearly entered the bubble on a short leash. He wasn’t particularly good in the scrimmages or in the first game against Portland. After that, he never played meaningful minutes again. The Grizzlies do not have a numbers problem on the wing, with five incumbents already under contract for next season and with additional restricted free agent rights on Melton and John Konchar. Jackson’s return looks more doubtful leaving Orlando than it did going in, and for different reasons. But he shouldn’t be out of the Grizzlies’ price range, so perhaps both sides could still see this as a developmental relationship worth extending.

Taylor Jenkins

Three in-the-bubble injuries and a 1-6 start didn’t break the Grizzlies’ spirit, and head coach Jenkins got them to play their best basketball when it finally mattered most, even if they still came up short. Whenever you lose a lot of close games, second-guessing is inevitable. Should Jenkins have come back with Jonas Valanciunas late in the first Portland game? Should he not have gone to Allen late in the last Portland game? Who knows? The NBA’s coach’s challenge rule might be annoying —I think so — but it’s a tool you’re given to potentially nudge each game a couple of points in your direction. Jenkins seems oddly reluctant to deploy it. Hey, he’s a rookie too.

The rest of the West

The Grizzlies came up just short of the playoffs this season. Fans should be prepared for a lower projection next season, as the Golden State Warriors try again and the middle of the conference is unlikely to be quite as squishy. The Grizzlies’ two cornerstones next season will still each be only 21 years old.

How’s the rest of the West shaping up for next season? An early read, focusing on the other teams in the bubble race for 8th:

Feeling better: The Portland Trail Blazers are moving on for now, and whatever happens to them against the Lakers in these playoffs, they can look toward next season thinking they could have their best team of the Damian Lillard era. That’s because the sure-thing backcourt of Lillard and CJ McCollum will be joined by 25-year-old center Jusuf Nurkic, who returned from injury looking like a borderline All Star. The Blazers will also leave Orlando thinking they might have found a big-time bench shooter in young guard Gary Trent Jr. They’ll likely enter next season a playoff favorite. 

Also riding high, despite missing the play-in game, are the Phoenix Suns, who went 8-0 in bubble play. Devin Booker was perhaps the second-best player in the Orlando seeding games and is somehow still only 23 despite coming off his fifth season. He’s a legit All Star in the backcourt. Former top pick Deandre Ayton continues to show signs he could become one in the frontcourt. Surrounding those cornerstones, the Suns seem to have found a couple of terrific young role players in stretch forward Cam Johnson and especially defensive ace Mikal Bridges. They may not be quite a playoff favorite for next season, but will be realistically focused on breaking through. 

Feeling worse: The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings didn’t try to bluff leaving Orlando. They made clear how they felt about their trajectories for next season by firing their head coach and lead executive, respectively.

The Pelicans’ poor coaching job was palpable this season, but it’s not necessarily a quick fix. Concerns about Zion Williamson’s conditioning, ability to stay healthy and lack of defensive impact loom over everything. The plan in New Orleans is predicated on Williamson being a star, on the floor, not just in commercials. Beyond that, it’s not clear what the near-term path is on a roster that has a balance of young (Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball), prime (Jrue Holiday) and aging (JJ Redick) key players. 

The Kings have fewer questions about their less heralded young star, point guard De’Aaron Fox, who rivals Morant as the game’s best young player at the position. But the questions start after that. Former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley, who missed all of bubble play, was supposed to be a second cornerstone, but remains a question mark. They’ll enter next season a playoff longshot. 

Mixed emotions: The San Antonio Spurs were a nice story in Orlando, and leave feeling better about their young talent, especially guard Derrick White. But unlike Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento or New Orleans, it’s not clear that there’s really a leading man here. They enter the offseason at a crossroads, with veteran stars (DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge) who don’t fit the go-young vibe and with a legendary head coach in Gregg Popovich who might be back, might be elsewhere or might retire. 

Given Jaren Jackson Jr.'s knee injury, you could slot the Grizzlies in this category.

The stay-at-homes: The Golden State Warriors, by their own description, took a gap year. They’re coming back next season with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, just for starters. They’ll be a presumptive playoff team. The Minnesota Timberwolves have perhaps the NBA’s best scoring big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, in his prime, and put together a new backcourt via in-season trades for D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley. They will not be a presumptive playoff team, but will certainly be gunning for it. 

The moving-ons: Like the eight-seed contenders, the West’s top seven can be sorted, at the moment, into three groups in regards to next season. The Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets are short-term thinkers trying to compete for a title right now with their veteran stars. For the moment, it seems likely all three will run those stars back next season. The Denver Nuggets (Nikola Jokic/Michael Porter Jr.) and Dallas Mavericks (Luka Doncic/Kristaps Porzingis) have young foundations that can still get better. They’re presumptive playoff repeaters with upside. And, finally, the Utah Jazz and especially the Oklahoma City Thunder have a mix of long-term cornerstones and recent veteran imports. Each has a decision to make about their direction going into next season. 

What will unbiased projections for the West next season look like? Subject to change as rosters shuffle and injuries occur, but right now it might be something like this. 

  1. Clippers
  2. Lakers
  3. Warriors
  4. Nuggets
  5. Blazers
  6. Rockets
  7. Mavericks
  8. Jazz
  9. Thunder
  10. Suns
  11. Pelicans
  12. Grizzlies
  13. Spurs
  14. Wolves
  15. Kings

Topics

Memphis Grizzlies Ja Morant Jonas Valanciunas Subscriber Only

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