Two drafts. Two rising stars. A few pingpong balls. 

When it comes to the NBA draft lottery in recent seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies have been a fortunate bunch.

Just last year, they had a 6.3% chance of jumping to the No. 2 spot, where they eventually took franchise-altering point guard Ja Morant. They got lucky.

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On Thursday, when the NBA continues its annual draft soap opera, the Grizzlies will have to be even luckier to keep their first-round pick.

Here’s a reminder of what’s at stake when the lottery gets underway at 7:30 p.m. (ESPN):

How did they get here?

It has been years in the making. 

On Jan. 12, 2015, the Grizzlies acquired Jeff Green (now on the Houston Rockets) as part of a three-team trade with the Celtics and Pelicans. Part of that agreement was to send a highly protected, first-round pick to Boston — but it had to be two years after Memphis completed a previous trade with the Cavaliers by sending them a first-round pick.

That’s right, Memphis couldn’t send the pick to Boston until two years after it sent a pick to Cleveland. In 2013, the Cavaliers had taken on the contracts of Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington and Josh Selby in exchange for a future first-round pick and Jon Leuer. That pick could have gone to Cleveland as early as 2015, but did not go to the Cavs until 2017 because it had to fall between Nos. 6 and 14 to be dealt in 2015 or 2016. The Grizzlies picked No. 25 and No. 17 those years.

So Cleveland finally got its pick in 2017, but traded it. Because NBA teams are not allowed to trade first-round picks in consecutive years, the Grizzlies selected Jaren Jackson Jr. at No. 4 overall in 2018. It would have been protected anyway. 

Then, in 2019, four years after the trade for Green, Memphis was finally eligible to send its pick to Boston so long as it was not in the top eight. It turned out to be No. 2, and the Grizzlies selected Morant.

So, here they are, more than five years after dealing for Green, finally prepared to hand over their first-round pick to Boston so long as it is not in the top six.

That’s what the trade protections state, at least. The Grizzlies are currently set to draft at No. 14, and only the first four picks in the draft are determined by lottery. That means the Grizzlies will keep their pick only if it is in the top four.

The skinny

Now the logical question becomes: What are the Grizzlies’ chances of moving into the top four and keeping the pick?

Answer: 2.4% (not great). In other words, there’s a 97.6% chance they will have to send the pick to Boston.

If they do somehow keep the pick, Memphis would give Boston an unprotected first-round selection in 2021.

How does it work?

The NBA will place 14 pingpong balls labeled 1 through 14 into a lottery machine. They will draw four balls from the machine, with 1,001 possible combinations. The team with the correct combination will receive the No. 1 pick. That process is repeated for picks 2 through 4.

Here are the odds for the No. 1 selection, per the NBA:

• Golden State > 14.00%
• Cleveland > 14.00%
• Minnesota > 14.00%
• Atlanta > 12.50%
• Detroit > 10.50%
• New York > 9.00%
• Chicago > 7.50%
• Charlotte > 6.00%
• Washington > 4.50%
• Phoenix > 3.00%
• San Antonio > 2.00%
• Sacramento > 1.30%
• New Orleans > 1.20%
• Memphis* > 0.50%

Second-round action

OK, so what about the second round? 

Well, the Grizzlies don’t have their second-round pick, either. But they do have the Phoenix Suns’ second-round pick.

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In January 2019, Memphis traded Wayne Selden, MarShon Brooks, a 2019 second-round pick and its 2020 second-rounder (No. 44) to the Chicago Bulls for Justin Holiday.

But in July, the Grizzlies snagged a second-round pick back by sending Jevon Carter and Kyle Korver to the Suns for Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton, a 2020 second-round pick (No. 40) and a 2021 second-round pick (protected 36-60).

Future draft assets

Just as a reminder, here are the other future draft assets the Grizzlies own via trade. (With the exception of the pick owed to Boston, the Grizzlies own all of their own first-round picks): 

2021 first-round pick from Utah 

Note: Pick is protected for selections 1-7 and 15-30 in 2021; 1-6 in 2022; 1-3 in 2023; and 1 in 2024. If the Jazz have not conveyed a first-round pick to Memphis by 2024, then they will convey its 2025 second-round pick and 2026 second-round pick.

2021 second-round pick from Phoenix 

Note: Brooklyn receives this pick if it falls between 36-60. The Grizzlies will get the pick if it falls between 31-35.

2021 second-round pick from Portland

Note: This pick was traded from Portland to Cleveland, then Cleveland to Detroit, then Detroit to Dallas, then Dallas to the Grizzlies for Delon Wright.

2022 second-round pick from Detroit or Chicago 

Note: The Grizzlies will get the less favorable pick between the Bulls and the Pistons.

2023 second-round pick from Houston, Dallas or Miami

Note: This one is complicated, but just know the Grizzlies will get either Houston’s second-rounder (protected 31-32) or the less favorable second-round pick between Miami and Dallas.

2024 first-round pick from Golden State

Note: Golden State will keep the pick if it is 1-4 in 2024 or No. 1 overall in 2025. The pick becomes unprotected in 2026.

2024 second-round pick from Toronto

Outgoing picks not already mentioned 

2021 second-round pick to Sacramento

2024 second-round pick to Oklahoma City