Fall camp for the most anticipated University of Memphis football season got underway on Wednesday, July 31. That means we’re officially one month away from game action when the season kicks off on Aug. 31 against North Alabama.

With that in mind, we thought it would be a good time to make five predictions about the season ahead.

The defense will be better. Much better.

Well, it can’t be worse, right? After last season ended with the Tigers ranking 95th in scoring defense, Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield made a change — well, a couple of them — at defensive coordinator. Interim Jordan Hankins took over for Memphis’ rout of Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl and is now the sole proprietor of the defensive play calling. Hey, the man is 1-0 on the job. 

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But it’s really more about the players. The Tigers brought in linebacker Elijah Herring, who led Tennessee in tackles a year ago, and defensive back Kobee Minor, an Indiana transfer who was an All-Big 10 honorable mention. The history of Power 5 players transferring to Memphis isn’t exactly decorated, but it did work very well with Simeon Blair a year ago and should persist with Herring and Minor. They should shore up a defense that, realistically, has nowhere to go but up.

Memphis will cover the spread against Florida State.

In one of the great favors to Memphis football, Mike Norvell and Florida State are paying Memphis $1.3 million to take a shot at the Seminoles in the second game of the season. It’s both an extremely kind gesture and sort of insane, considering Memphis’ prowess. Asking the Tigers to beat a preseason Top 10 team on the road is obviously a lot, but I do believe Memphis keeps this game close and within the betting spread. 

We don’t know what that will be yet, but let’s take a guess using Sagarin ratings. Last year, Florida State would’ve been a 16-point favorite against Memphis in Tallahassee. Let’s play with some numbers here and adjust Florida State down by two points with the switch at quarterback from Jordan Travis to D.J. Uiagalelei and some NFL departures. Let’s also adjust Memphis up by a point for returning key offensive pieces and improving the defense. That gets us to Florida State being favored by 13 or 13.5 (let’s revisit this in September and see how close I am). 

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So, to bottom line it, I think Memphis will keep this game within two touchdowns — and, hey, if they can hang around, you never know.

Seth Henigan will break the single-season passing record.

The four-year starter is already the all-time passing leader at Memphis, having surpassed Brady White last season with 10,773 yards. But the single-season passing record still belongs to Riley Ferguson, who threw for 4,257 yards in 2017. This will be the year that mark falls, as well. Henigan’s numbers — passing yards, completion percentage, attempts — have all gone up each year he’s been at Memphis. That should continue into 2024, when he’ll be at the helm of one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. In doing so, he’ll surpass Ferguson’s single-season record and fully cement himself as the best quarterback to ever wear the Memphis uniform.

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It’s not going to be a pleasant adjustment with Simmons Bank renovations.

Look, let’s be honest. There are kinks to work out every season when the stadium isn’t undergoing renovations. It’s certainly worth the trouble, but yes, this season will probably be a little bit of a mess in regards to the in-game experience. When you go from 58,000 available seats to less than 35,000, that’s probably to be expected.

Memphis will finish the story and win the AAC.

Finally, Memphis will live up to their preseason hype in the American and win the conference championship for the first time since 2019. They’ve got the guys on offense, they revamped the defense and brought in better talent, and the conference is just dismal past Memphis. Indeed, many of their toughest league games will take place on the road, but that’s the way it goes. Teams have to win on the road in order to take the conference crown. That’s exactly what I believe Memphis and Ryan Silverfield will do in 2024.