A Vanderbilt University model for the COVID-19 crisis shows Tennessee’s cases could peak in mid-June if the status quo is maintained for social distancing requirements but could improve to mid-May under the best scenario, which would mean statewide testing and improved contact tracing, according to researchers who put together the study.

A lifting of current restrictions, such as the “stay at home” order could make the peak go up precipitously, with no end in sight.

Vanderbilt researchers say the Memphis area started with a high transmission rate but responded well to social distancing and, because of strong testing programs, the rate of transmission dropped dramatically.

Initially, the Memphis area had an infection rate of five people per one sick person but has dropped to about 1.5 infected people per sick person. That means one person was infecting five, but now one person is infecting only 1.5 people.

Local coronavirus cases, at a glance
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Confirmed COVID-19 cases
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As of 2 p.m. Friday, April 10, there were 4,862 confirmed coronavirus cases in Tennessee, resulting in 98 deaths.

The newest data from the Tennessee Department of Health puts the Shelby County total at 1,083, an increase from the 1,049 figure that the Shelby County Health Department released earlier in the day.

Nearly 63,000 people have been tested in Tennessee.

Eleven percent of confirmed cases, or 536 people, have been hospitalized statewide.

Almost one quarter of confirmed cases (24%) were classified as having recovered from the disease, representing 1,145 individuals. The Department of Health classifies people as recovered when they are confirmed to be asymptomatic by their local or regional health department and have completed their required isolation or are at least 21 days past their first positive test.

Mississippi State Department of Health reported 2,469 confirmed coronavirus cases, resulting in 82 deaths.

DeSoto County had 158 cases, resulting in one death. The number is an increase of eight since Thursday

Marshall County reported two new cases for a total of 28 cases and remains at one death.

Hinds County had the most cases, 219, resulting in two deaths. 

The state was monitoring 47 outbreaks at long-term care facilities. 

Mayors in Bartlett, Lakeland, Arlington and Millington extended their Safer at Home and Emergency Declaration executive orders Friday.

They will be in effect a week – until April 17 – but may be extended for an additional seven days next week.

Collierville and Germantown’s emergency declaration and Safer at Home orders are in effect until rescinded by the those cities’ respective mayors.

The orders close non-essential businesses and prohibit on-site consumption at restaurants. They also give local authorities power to enforce guidelines outlined in the orders.

Arlington, Collierville, Germantown and Millington have closed park playgrounds, pavilions and restrooms. Lakeland has closed its parks.

While Bartlett parks remain open, Mayor Keith McDonald’s order asks guests to practice social distancing and not congregate in large groups.

According to City of Memphis Chief Operating Officer Doug McGowen, priorities of the COVID-19 Task Force, compliance to safer-at-home orders must continue through Easter.

McGowen said he was pleased to report that the vast majority of individuals are heeding and that officials must put effort into enforcement. 

The case peak of surge is being pushed out, both here and throughout the country, he said. 

McGowen said that officials know that there is going to be an uptick.

The Health Department announced this morning that there were 1,049 cases and 25 deaths. During the briefing, Shelby County Health Department Director Alisa Haushalter said there were now 26 deaths. 

“We know that there is going to be an uptick,” McGowen said. 

McGowen said that the “safer-at-home” order is why the number isn’t growing faster and that the growth rate is the most important to look at.

The task force is expanding testing through health clinics and with drive-thru testing.

“For anyone who gets tested, it’s important that you isolate yourself, until you get those results,” McGowen said. 

So far, 11,945 have been tested; 1,049 are positive (8.8%), more than 10,000 (91%) have been negative. The number of cases, as of today are 1,049, an increase of 100 since yesterday morning.

“We’ve had an increase of 100 since yesterday,” Haushalter said. “We believe that’s a reflection of the backlog of testing at one of the major laboratories. Those numbers are getting caught up fairly quickly.”

The death rate is just over 2%.

“The age distribution continues to be that the majority of cases are between the ages of 21 and 60,” she said. “That’s 70%. But we are seeing an increase in the number of cases among people 61 and older. That’s now up to 19%. We are continuing to see more cases among females. That’s about 53% of individuals diagnosed are female, and 44% are male.”

Haushalter said the Health Department will continue to report on racial distribution.

“At the current time, about 50% of the data is entered into the system,” she said. “So, the numbers I’m about to read on racial distribution are representative of a little bit over 500 cases. 

About 70% are African-American. 25% (about 125 individuals) are Caucasian. 5% are listed as ‘other.’ For individuals who identified as Hispanic or Latino, of all races, the number was 27 or 5%.”

McGowen said that officials are hearing from people who need a ride and the disabled community. For the disabled community, he mentioned the MATA Plus service.

“They have to prove that they have a medical disability to take advantage of that system,” he said. 

For those who believe they need to be tested a have a transportation challenge, by the middle of next week, there will be new options, McGowen said. 

Individuals can support COVID-10 efforts through the Community Foundation of Greater Memphis fund as well as Volunteer Memphis.

Haushalter said it is working with Parkway Rehab in Memphis where there are two positive cases.

Haushalter said 16 juvenile detainees are being tested; 15 have been tested this morning, one is to be tested.

All have been released and none exhibited signs of COVID, Haushalter said. 

Capt. Anthony Buckner, a spokesman for the Sheriff’s Office, said later one of the 16 children quarantined has been released and that is why 15 children were tested Friday. He said the child released will be tested, but he is not sure if the testing has occurred.

Buckner said the health department and Wellpath, the health care provider for the jail, made the decision to test the children.

They 16 were quarantined April 1, the Shelby County Sheriff’s Office confirmed, after revealing that an employee at the facility tested positive for COVID-19.

Fifty-nine children detained at the facility. Juvenile court officials were slated to have hearings to decide if some of the detained children could be released from the facility because of the pandemic.

Leon Gray, a spokesman for Shelby County Juvenile Court Judge Dan Michael, said the hearings were postponed April 1 after the employee tested. It was not immediately known Friday if a new hearing date has been set.

“Social distancing is the key,” Haushalter said at the briefing about the fight against coronavirus in Shelby County. “We’re seeing the impact of that.”

In terms of business, McGowen said all public and private golf courses are to remain closed.

When asked about restrictions and enforcement of essential businesses, McGowen said that officials were thankful for businesses that aren’t currently open and said that non-essential does not mean unimportant. 

Haushalter and McGowen talked about measures public entities are taking.

Haushalter said the Health Department has been screening employees for weeks now and that many employees working at home or on different schedules. She said they screen for temperature and symptoms and are monitoring each other and holding each other accountable.

McGowen said that folks in the city and county are wearing masks and that temperature testing is happening with employees. Some critical public works facilities are doing temperature scanning among employees. It may be broad across office, as equipment comes in.

When asked about quarantine, Haushalter said whether or not the Health Department checks on someone every day depends. The agency can take someone to court to mandate order, but it has had minimal reports of someone breaching quarantine. 

Today’s joint briefing from the COVID-19 Task Force and the Shelby County Health Department is set to feature City of Memphis Chief Operating Officer Doug McGowen and officials from the health department. 

Watch below:

Shelby County has surpassed 1,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. The Shelby County Health Department reports 1,049 cases, resulting in 26 deaths. 

About 12,000 people (11,945) have been tested.

As of 2 p.m. Thursday, April statewide there were 4,634 cases, resulting in 505 hospitalizations. According to Tennessee Department of Health data, 921 people in Tennesseee have recovered from the disease. 

Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris on Friday, April 10, extended his executive order prohibiting nonessential activity for an additional seven days, as the county continues to grapple with the novel coronavirus.

Harris also revised the order to require grocery stores to provide an hour of controlled access for county residents 55 and older and for those with underlying medical conditions.

1. Special Hours for Vulnerable Population. For purposes of this Order, all essential grocery retail establishments are required to provide at least one hour of controlled access to patrons age 55 and over and to those who have serious underlying medical conditions. Limited access is meant to protect vulnerable populations from additional or unnecessary risk of contracting COVID-19.

“Seniors, according to CDC guidelines, are at higher risk of requiring severe treatment for the novel coronavirus. That is also borne out in our local data. The median age of those who have died from COVID-19 is 65 years,” Harris said in a statement. “Every day we are working on protecting the community from the spread of COVID-19. As we identify groups that are at high risks, like our seniors, we will put in place additional protections.”

Tennessee Department of Health reports there are 4,634 confirmed coronavirus cases in Tennessee, resulting in 94 deaths.

Yesterday the agency reported 4,623 cases and 79 deaths.

According to its 2 p.m. update, Shelby County has 1,006 cases.

There have been 505 hospitalizations; 921 people have recovered from the disease.

At 10 a.m. the Shelby County Health Department reported 949 cases in Shelby County, resulting in 23 deaths. 

At 9:30 a.m. Nasvhille’s Metro Public Health Department reported 1,231 cases in Davidson County, resulting in 13 deaths.

Hiring and consulting firm Vaco is partnering with the City of Memphis to provide vital testing and outreach information during the coronavirus pandemic.

The remote COVID-19 response call center is staffed by individuals displaced from work due to the virus and targets the city’s underserved and unemployed populations.

The initiative is funded through a grant from the Community Foundation of Greater Memphis, according to a release, and helps educate residents on preventative measures, symptoms and free resources that are available.

The partnership between the City of Memphis, Memphis Tourism, Metropolitan Hotel & Lodging Association, Memphis Housing Authority and the Memphis Restaurant Association has hired 53 unemployed workers from the restaurant and tourism industries.

“Vaco is excited to partner with Mayor Jim Strickland and the Memphis Housing Authority to reach out to underserved areas and make them aware of all of the resources available to them around COVID-19,” said Kirk Johnson, managing partner of Vaco in Memphis. “The city has done a great job of partnering with local organizations to set up mobile testing centers and other resources that are so necessary right now given these unprecedented circumstances.”