If you think you’ve been feeling a pinch at the grocery store, well, it’s worse than that.

What you’ve been feeling is a punch.

Most people know they’re spending more at the grocery store, but just how much is eye-popping.

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“It’s insane,” said Patty Osborn, who lives in the Sea Isle neighborhood in Memphis. “Right at the start of COVID, you couldn’t get things, but the prices didn’t seem to go up much. Now it’s crazy. I used to pay $16 for a pack of lamb chops and now that same pack is $40.”

Osborn, a nurse for a concierge medical practice, is a savvy shopper who loves to cook and makes her shopping rounds on Friday afternoons, when her work day ends early at 1 p.m.

Some weeks it’s Superlo Foods, Aldi, Kroger (if there’s a special she wants) and an international market. Every other week, she adds a bulk retailer such as Costco and/or Sam’s Club to the rotation. She said she’s watched the receipts creep up each month.

“On the big runs, it used to be around $200,” Osborn said. “Now it’s between $325 and $350.”

We shopped for ourselves to see. By going to our online accounts, we took three actual receipts from over the last three years at three different area grocery stores and duplicated those orders to the best degree we could at the same stores.

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We also compared prices between the market leaders and larger area grocers: Kroger, Walmart, Cash Saver and Superlo. 

On April 15, 2020, in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, a shopper spent $123.65 at Superlo Foods on Spottswood Avenue.

On Feb. 22, 2023, that same order came to $175.55.

On Jan. 13, 2021, a pickup order at Walmart Supercenter on Germantown Parkway was $63.07. On Feb. 22 of this year, it was $107.90.

And at Kroger on Truse Parkway on Feb. 23, an order that initially cost $43.66 on Feb. 6, 2022, came in at $70.88.

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Those price increases by percentage are 42%, 71% and 62%, respectively.

A pinch indeed.

There are a few caveats: At Superlo, the 2020 purchase included a three for $12 special on soft drinks; when shopped on Feb. 22 of this year, Coca-Cola products were $6.99 per 12-pack.

At Walmart, the 2021 order included three pet food items, and pet food prices have recently increased dramatically. The canned dog food almost doubled, from $10.26 to $19.94. 

At Kroger in 2022, one item bought was a cheese tray that was a manager’s special for $9.99 but is $19.99 at regular price.

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And, with all three orders, we had to make substitutions (often marginally more expensive, except where just mentioned) for items not available. 

Otherwise, the lists were the same and, as you can see, prices have soared. What you might not know is how much they can change from week to week — and even more frequently, taking in-store and managers’ specials into account.

And the $64,000 question, of course, is: Where do you get the best deal?

The answer is it’s not always at the same place.

There’s a lot going on to set those prices before you ever walk in the sliding doors.

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Pass higher prices on — or don’t

The consumer is not the only one feeling the pain. Grocers are passing along price increases that are coming to them.

“The kind of quick answer as to how much that we’re using and hearing through suppliers and wholesalers is that prices are about 10% higher than they were a year ago, and last year, they were about 10% higher than the year before that,” said Rick James, CEO of Castle Retail Group, which owns three local Cash Saver groceries, High Point Grocery and South Point Grocery.

(Full disclosure, we didn’t price compare items from Cash Saver with earlier prices because we didn’t have an old receipt to use.) 

Using that math, an item that cost $10 at the end of 2020 cost $12.10 at the end of 2022 — but that’s the cost to the grocer. Consumer prices have increased much more for other factors.

“But keep in mind that before that, prices were flat for several years,” James said.

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And some items have gone up much higher.

Eggs are an example of skyrocketing prices, but also of exceptional circumstances.

The United States Department of Agriculture reports that more than 52 million birds were culled in the U.S. in 2022, mostly hens and turkeys on commercial farms. The avian flu affects laying birds more than broilers, which are raised for meat.

James said he operates by pricing eggs weekly.

“A year ago, a dozen grade A large were $1.50, my cost. Today, it’s $2.37,” he said. “But if you go back to the worst time, the week before Christmas, it was $5.54.”

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At Superlo, a locally owned grocery with eight stores in Shelby County and one in DeSoto County, president John Stanfield says the stores are selling some eggs at a loss.

“It’s just not a cost we’re willing to pass on, and we want to stay competitive,” he said. “We have contracts with different distributors on eggs, and at times in the past few months, we’ve been able to get organic eggs cheaper than private label.”

But barring another mass culling, egg prices are trending down and should stabilize, James and Stanfield both say.

‘It’s everything.’

Still, they’ll tell you that for the past few years, it’s always something.

Of course, there was a pandemic.

“A year ago, a dozen grade A large were $1.50, my cost. Today, it’s $2.37,” he said. “But if you go back to the worst time, the week before Christmas, it was $5.54.”

Rick James
CEO of Castle Retail Group

“You have to take a long view and figure out what is related to COVID and the subsequent short supplies on packaging, less food available, low staff across the board, and then you have things that are separate from COVID,” James said.

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“Most of the wheat used to manufacture sandwich bread comes from Ukraine. So you have a major break in that import that has to be made up somewhere, and that becomes a supply and demand issue,” he said.

But the increased ticket price at the check-out includes more than the increased price of food items.

Severe weather, from hurricanes to blizzards to tornadoes, over the past few years have shut down manufacturing facilities, short-term or long-term, because of extended power outages and damage that takes weeks, months or longer to repair. For whatever the item, when supply is short, demand is high and prices escalate.

The high cost of diesel fuel means that grocers are also paying fuel surcharges and has also contributed to a shortage of truck drivers.

“When diesel hits a certain point, I get hit with fuel surcharges, and mine have gone up 20 times since 2020,” James said. “It went up 15 times from 2020 to 2021 and five times from 2021 to 2022.”

And there are one-offs.

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“We recently got a notice that Dole had a cyberattack that shut them down for eight days,” James said. “When things like this happen, it affects the supply chain.”

Credit card fees are up, Stanfield said, including an increase on the use of debit cards in spring 2022. He said it depends on the card, but so-called swipe fees are about 3% of the cost of a sale, and most people buy groceries with credit or debit cards.

Another expense grocery stores have seen that affect the consumers’ bottom line is a large increase in the supplies it takes to pack products.

“It’s everything,” Stanfield said. “It’s all gone way up, from the trays for packing meat to plastic wrap, to containers for a piece of cake to to-go boxes from the hot bar. We’re up 56% on those costs right now from this time last year, and I don’t even know offhand how much in two years or three.”

Last year, some restaurateurs reacted to the high cost of packaging by adding a surcharge of a couple of dollars or 10% for takeout orders.

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Like restaurants, grocery stores have had trouble with staffing, particularly entry-level positions.

“To get people to work, we pay more, and when we don’t have enough people to work, we pay overtime to the ones we have,” Stanfield said.

Comparison shopping, on a grand scale

It all adds up to more money from your pocket, but local grocers want you to know they’re not gouging you.

Both Superlo and Castle Retail tend to price shop between their various suppliers constantly.

“We’ll shop beef prices sometimes twice a week,” James said.

And while they have contracts for some supplies, they’re also flexible.

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“Of course we have our main distributors, but if they’re high on something because of their supply, we have contacts all over and we can act fast,” Stanfield said. “We’re small enough that we can be nimble and get what we need.”

Kroger, the largest grocer in the area with about 30 local stores in Shelby and DeSoto counties, did not agree to multiple requests for an interview. A Kroger representative requested prepared questions and they were provided by The Daily Memphian, but we received no further response.

While many stores practice blended pricing, which is buying multiple products to get a price break and is often because of promotions with the distributor (think buying three 12-packs of soft drinks to get a deal), Kroger appears to have an in-house mix-and-match system that requires shoppers to buy multiple items to receive the lowest cost.

Over recent weeks at Kroger, a bag of Lay’s brand potato chips was $4.99 for one, but $1.99 each if you bought four; presumably, this is a deal with Lay’s (last week, the price was $3.50 per bag for one).

But at Kroger, blended pricing can also extend across brands, mixing items such as a pack of salami with ice cream with something else to get to the necessary number, often five, of the same or assorted items to get the lowest price. 

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The items are listed on the Kroger app, but shoppers have to go the store with a carefully prepared list or try to search the mobile app or spend time scouring the store to find the qualifying items.

Even consumer Osburn, who shops around for bargains and doesn’t mind extra and will freeze items with a FoodSaver so they will last longer, finds herself perplexed at times and frustrated having to look for the items to match.

“It’s just so aggravating,” she said.

“We have some of that,” Superlo’s Stanfield said, “and of course, everyone knows about it with Cokes and Pepsi. If it says you get three 12-packs for $12 or whatever, you have to buy three because that’s their deal.

“But if we put something on sale and say it’s two for $5, you can buy one and get it for $2.50. You might not want multiples, and you don’t have to buy them.”

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And if you think your soft drinks are pricier and the selections skimpier, you’re right. While product lines are building back up, a shortage of aluminum caused the big companies to cut back to their core products — Coke, Diet Coke and Sprite for Coca-Cola — and also kept store or off-brands off the shelves entirely as aluminum wasn’t available for packaging.

“That’s mostly resolved now, but we’ve had three price increases on Coke and Pepsi both in past year,” Stanfield said.

An example: On March 6, Coca-Cola products were $6.99 per 12-pack at Superlo, $6.98 (plus 10% at checkout) at Cash Saver, $6.98 at Walmart, and $8.99 at Kroger (but shoppers could save $1 per 12-pack with the purchase of three).

Where to find the best deals

The Daily Memphian also looked at U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Plans, which chart monthly costs across the country at four different spending levels — thrifty, low-cost, moderate-cost and liberal — and saw a shocking increase.

The thrifty plan for a family of four with two adults and two school-age children was $654.10 per month in January 2020. In January of this year, it’s $977.70, a 49.36% increase; see the accompanying chart for more information on other spending plans.

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So we decided to do our best to price shop, knowing that it falls somewhere between herding cats and nailing Jell-O to the wall. It’s made difficult because of unadvertised specials, manager’s specials and weekly specials — and they can change quickly — but we nonetheless created a meal plan and a grocery list for a family of four. We added in other items, such as breakfast cereal, coffee, fruit, frozen chicken nuggets and fries, and sandwich meat, bread, yogurt and chips for kids’ lunches.

The list for meals included items such as ground beef and turkey, salmon fillets, chicken thighs, eggs, milk, rice, beans and produce ranging from inexpensive potatoes, carrots and onions to pricier asparagus and tomatoes. 

We didn’t include soft drinks, candy or cookies, paper products, pet food or cleaning supplies — items which are often purchased at the grocery store but didn’t apply to our meals — and went online shopping at Superlo, Kroger, Walmart and Cash Saver, keeping the selection as close as possible.

The choices varied slightly (Gala apples here, Jonathan there, for example; whatever came in a 3-pound bag was what we sought). We bought store brands or name brand, seeking the best price. As Tennessee’s tax on groceries varies and is only calculated at checkout, these prices are all pre-tax (but would be taxed the same at every store). 

Here’s what we found: The first week we priced our items, the cost at Superlo was $152.82; at Walmart, it was $176.24; $142.75 at Cash Saver; and $185.80 at Kroger. Two weeks later, we did it again.

At Kroger, it was $182.07; at Superlo, $175.40; at Walmart, $153.69; and $147.63 at Cash Saver.

The price differences are mostly because prices changed with specials. And there is also some difference because no store had every item we selected, so different items were removed from the lists.

But that’s a story for another day.

This is the first in an ongoing series about how grocery shopping has changed in recent years. Please leave comments sharing your thoughts, frustrations, tips for best pricing and sourcing in the comments or by emailing jbiggs@dailymemphian.com.