Memphis is rumored to be in line for a nonstop flight to Paris three days a week, perhaps as early as 2025, with bargaining made sweeter because FedEx reportedly would guarantee cargo in the belly.

Memphis International Airport neither denied nor confirmed the possible flight with Air France.

“We’ve had many meetings with airlines over the past few months, including Air France, but we never publicly discuss air service negotiations with airlines,” airport spokesman Glen Thomas said.

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“We have strong interest in adding both domestic and international routes and are working diligently to do so.”

Kevin Kane, head of Memphis Tourism, made similar comments.

“Obviously, we’re working on domestic service. We are working on international service. There is nothing concrete, in stone. There is no announcement forthcoming, I can tell you that. We’re nowhere close, whether it’s Paris; London; Hong Kong; Toronto, Canada,” he said.

But a national aviation consultant, based in Denver, can’t see how the flight could miss.

“If I were a betting person, I bet on it. I would further bet, 10 to one, that it’s going to be a home run,” said Michael Boyd, head of Boyd Group International.

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“Air France wants the traffic through its hub at Charles de Gaulle. This isn’t about the local Memphis traffic. It’s about all the people up and down those interstate corridors into and out of Memphis,” Boyd said. “There’s a lot of industry there.”

There aren’t enough Memphis passengers wanting to go to Paris to make it work, he said.

“But there is enough when you throw in Warsaw, and you throw in Cairo, and you throw in Rome and Dusseldorf. There’s a lot of traffic there, connecting traffic thereafter.”

FedEx, Boyd said, could easily fill the bottom of the plane three days a week.

“It’s a slam dunk if they can do it.”

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FedEx had no information it could share, a spokesman said. 

For 16 years, starting in 1995, Memphis had the financially viable nonstop to Amsterdam on KLM Airlines. It ended when Delta began to see it could not maintain a hub here. Memphis was de-hubbed in 2013.

The flight initially ran three days a week with the goal of increasing frequency after the first year.

“It went daily within about four or five months,” Kane said. “It was very successful. The freight part was successful. The passenger part was successful. But things were different. Back then, No. 1, we were the southern hub for a major airline,” he said.

“So, you had one-stop service to most of the major markets and even secondary markets in the United States, especially in the Southern and the Western states,” Kane said.

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Scott Brockman, president and CEO of Memphis-Shelby County Airport Authority, would not discuss talks the airport may be having with Air France or any other carrier.

In general, he said, in the competitive airline business, an early announcement of a new flight gives other carriers time to cut their prices and increase frequency to protect their turf.

“The reason why you don’t announce things early is because it’s highly competitive,” he said.

Neither Jackson, Mississippi, nor Little Rock have international service. In late September, the Nashville airport announced it was in frequent discussions to offer nonstop service to European gateway cities, mentioning Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam. It said it was also engaged in conversations for service to Dublin; Reykjavik, Iceland; Panama City; and the Caribbean.

Nashville now has a nonstop to London on British Airways and several flights to Canada.

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“The bottom line is, every city is pursuing a lot of opportunities for serving certain destinations with a nonstop or one-stop service,” Kane said.

“So, it’s really premature for us to say, ‘Oh, yeah, Paris or London or Tokyo, oh, yeah, we’re really close. It’s a real possibility,’ ” he said.

“Those things could still take, unfortunately, years to materialize.”

But Memphis does have infrastructure, including the 11,000-foot World Runway, completed in 2000, that makes it possible to fly to Asia from here.

“If Nashville were to get an Asian flight, they would have to lengthen their runway,” Kane said.

Having FedEx guarantee cargo loads makes the difference between making money or possibly not, Boyd said.

“I’ll be blunt, passenger traffic alone between Memphis and the Air France hub at Charles de Gaulle could work very easily. … But passengers plus a guaranteed revenue under the floor in the cargo bin, I don’t see how it could fail.”