New and active COVID-19 cases continue to fall in Shelby County as the virus’s transmission rate also declined slightly over the past two weeks, according to the latest data available. 

The number of coronavirus patients in Memphis-area hospitals continues to decline as overall hospital capacity remains stable.

From Sept. 19 to Saturday, the Shelby County Health Department reported an average of 122 new coronavirus cases and 2,782 tests reported each day, yielding a 4.4% positivity rate. Those results included tests from people tested multiple times.

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In the preceding two-week period, the Health Department reported 148 new COVID-19 cases each day.

Testing numbers from that period are heavily skewed because of the 132,442 test results reported by the Health Department Sept. 15. On that day, the Health Department changed the way it reported coronavirus test results to include those tested for the virus multiple times to give a clearer picture on testing.

In the other 13 days during that period, Shelby County averaged 143 new cases and 2,071 test results a day, with a 6.9% positivity rate. 

The transmission, or reproductive, rate in Shelby County recently fell below one. It’s currently 0.92, according to COVID Act Now. That means every patient is infecting fewer than one person right now in Shelby County. For much of the past two weeks, the transmission rate was above one.

The promising data trends could lead to the Shelby County Health Department loosening more COVID-19 restrictions as early as next week. Two potential changes in the next health directive could include allowing more spectators at sporting events and changing the 10 p.m. curfew for bars and restaurants.

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“However, things aren’t going back to the way we were before the pandemic, before we closed,” Shelby County Health Department Health Officer Dr. Bruce Randolph said. “Businesses, services and individuals will still have to adhere to the safety measures we have in place, such as seating in restaurants, whether you are full service or limited service.”

Overall, the Shelby County Health Department has reported 31,840 coronavirus cases, 478 deaths and 30,050 cases classified as inactive/recovered.

The number of active cases in Shelby County is 1,312, a decrease from the 1,582 reported Sept. 19.

Symptoms for coronavirus include, but are not limited to, fever or chills, cough, fatigue and shortness of breath, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

Wearing a mask or facial covering, remaining 6 feet apart from other people and washing your hands for at least 20 seconds are several key strategies for slowing the virus’ spread.

Forty-six coronavirus deaths were reported from Sept. 5 to Sept. 19, 10 more than the 36 reported from Sept. 19 to Saturday. The Health Department has reported 24 coronavirus-related deaths in the past week.

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Shelby County Health Department Director Alisa Haushalter addressed COVID-19 fatalities during a Thursday press briefing.

“What we’re learning more and more about COVID is there are individuals who can be ill for a very long time before they pass away,” Haushalter said. “There are others who seem to recover and get ill again. I don’t see any specific trends that are related to that increase in the number. I think it’s where we are in the pandemic and the number of people who have been ill for an extended period of time.”

Of the 478 deaths associated with coronavirus, 28% are attributed to outbreaks or clusters in nursing home facilities.

The three most common comorbidities associated with coronavirus-related deaths are cardiac conditions (78.4%), diabetes (40.4%) and/or respiratory conditions (33.7%), according to Health Department data.

There were 163 COVID-19 patients in Memphis-area hospitals as of 5 p.m. Thursday, a decrease of 23 patients from the 186 reported two weeks ago.

Acute care beds are at 90% use, with ICU bed occupancy at 87%. COVID-19 patients and those suspected of having the virus represent 6% of acute care patients and 17% of ICU patients.

Two weeks ago, acute care bed capacity was at 89%, while ICU bed use was 90%

Hospital data is reflective of facilities in Shelby, Lauderdale and Tipton counties in Tennessee, Crittenden County in Arkansas, and DeSoto County in Mississippi.