Herrington: Memphis Grizzlies 2023 offseason player rankings, Part 2
The Memphis Grizzlies' Ja Morant (12) drives to the basket against the Los Angeles Lakers' Jarred Vanderbilt during the first half in Game 6 of a first-round NBA basketball playoff series April 28 in Los Angeles. (Jae C. Hong/AP file)
Chris Herrington
Chris Herrington has covered the Memphis Grizzlies, in one way or another, since the franchise’s second season in Memphis, while also writing about music, movies, food and civic life. As far as he knows, he’s the only member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association who is also a member of a film critics group and has also voted in national music critic polls for Rolling Stone and the Village Voice (RIP). He and his wife have two kids and, for reasons that sometimes elude him, three dogs.
In Part 1 of this two-part column, I began a countdown of the Memphis Grizzlies’ roster based on future value.
The conceit: Imagine the NBA was expanding this summer. Facing an expansion draft in which teams are forced to leave a portion of their rosters vulnerable to being poached, how would the Grizzlies prioritize their current players?
This exercise would not be as simple as merely ranking the best current players. Other factors would come into play: growth potential, trade value, age, contract status.
These rankings take that holistic view. It’s the kind of thinking that might guide the team in the contract and trade decisions that could come this summer.
Yesterday, I counted down from No. 17 to No. 9. Today, the eight most valuable members of the Grizzlies’ roster.
8. Tyus Jones
Age: 27
Contract status next season: $14 million expiring
For the second year in a row, Jones spent a lot of time filling in as the Grizzlies' starting point guard in Ja Morant’s absence. And for the second year in a row, the Grizzlies had a winning record in those games.
This time, Jones was even better individually, averaging 16 points and eight assists in 22 starts while shooting 50% from the floor and 42% from 3.
It’s also notable that Jones has started two of the past three Grizzlies’ playoff wins: Game 2 against the Lakers this spring and Game 5 against Golden State last spring.
But…
The Grizzlies’ highest hopes will only be reached with Morant at the helm, and when Morant’s around, Jones’ playoff role recedes.
In three playoffs with the Grizzlies, Jones has averaged 15 minutes in games where Morant plays. Overall, Jones’ field-goal and 3-point shooting percentages in the playoffs for the Grizzlies:
- 2020-2021: 35% and 25%
- 2021-2022: 35% and 32%
- 2022-2023: 31% and 16%
Jones has considerable value to the Grizzlies as a regular-season backstop against likely Morant absences and as a respected locker-room presence.
But as he heads into the second season of the generous two-year deal he signed last summer, the Grizzlies have to weigh those factors relative to Jones’ limited value as a pure backup and his lackluster playoff contributions.
It might be better for both parties if the Grizzlies could find Jones the starting opportunity his regular-season play warrants and reroute that considerable salary to a player with more postseason utility.
The likely complication: As a potential trade piece, there’s likely little, if any, overlap between teams that would seek Jones as a starter and the teams where his salary would be useful as matching fodder for an upgrade on the wing. Multi-team trades are fairly rare, but if ever there were a player set up to be in one, it might be Jones.
7. Xavier Tillman Sr.
Age: 24
Contract status next season: $1.9 million, team option
For the second season in a row, the third-year center found himself out of the rotation early but starting playoff games late.
And for the third season in a row, Tillman had big moments when it mattered most, namely leading the Grizzlies to a win with 22 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2 against the Lakers.
On the whole, Tillman averaged nine points, eight rebounds and three assists while shooting 53% from the floor against the Lakers. More impressively, he alternated guarding the two best players in the series: Small forward LeBron James and center Anthony Davis.
Tillman’s ability to toggle defensively between centers and bigger wings brings valuable defensive utility, and while he remains a floor-bound 6-foot-8, Tillman improved his finishing at the rim after deep struggles there his second season.
All of this was noted by Grizzlies president of basketball operations Zach Kleiman at Sunday’s closing media session.
Wish list: Bring back the 3-point shot Tillman flashed as a rookie and has since abandoned in games despite drilling them with good form in practice.
Kleiman noted that Tillman is very much part of the plan going into next season, and with Brandon Clarke unavailable to start the season due to his torn Achilles, Tillman seems highly likely to open in the team’s rotation this time around.
Could the Grizzlies wrap him up for longer? Tillman’s $1.9 million team option for next season is certain to be picked up, and he would be eligible for an extension for up to the league average salary. Given the multi-year extensions already in place for frontcourt partners Clarke, Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr., there’s probably a cap on how much more the Grizzlies will spend on their frontcourt rotation. But for the right price, a Tillman extension should be on the table.
6. Santi Aldama
Age: 22
Contract status next season: $2.2 million in the third season of four-year rookie scale contract
Too high?
Jones and Tillman are also bench players when the Grizzlies are at full-strength. Aldama is younger and on a value contract for longer, giving him an edge here.
Where Tillman was able to guard both James and Davis in the Lakers series (well, as much as anyone could), Aldama had no hope against either, and the Grizzlies defense was flamed when he was on the floor.
That’s one matchup, one particularly ill-suited for Aldama. And yet the team’s offense was better when he was on the floor, and Aldama kept his head as the team was clobbered in Game 6, finishing with a team-high 16.
Overall, in his first playoff series, with nowhere to go on defense, Aldama still shot 7-15 from 3 and chipped in on the boards. It didn’t seem too big for him.
He needs to get stronger and work on his defense this summer, but Aldama’s skill-level — and style level — is high, and there’s real room for growth from his surprise breakout second season. Hopefully a stint on the Spanish National Team this summer will be a boost.
5. Luke Kennard
Age: 27
Contract status next season: $15.4 million with a team option for 2024-2025
Kennard got a little lost in the mix with the Los Angeles Clippers, which were deep with veteran perimeter talent. But his skills fit the Grizzlies’ biggest need, and after about a month of finding his footing, the team’s trade-deadline acquisition took off, drilling 3-pointers at a dizzying clip and scoring in double digits in 10 straight games, mostly off the bench.
Most of that came against some pretty weak defenses, and against the Lakers in the playoffs, Kennard again struggled to get off shots, scoring in single digits in four of his five games, never attempting more than four 3-pointers in a game.
But…
The Grizzlies offense was terrible against the Lakers with Kennard on the bench and terrific when he was on the floor. When he paired with either Morant or Desmond Bane, the offensive numbers were spectacular.
The team leaned into this in Game 5, their best of the series, and then, with Kennard’s injured shoulder, didn’t have the option in Game 6 in which they were overwhelmed.
This was all a carry over from the regular season, and while the samples are small all-around, the Grizzlies seem eager to test this against a larger sample. As well they should.
On Sunday, Kennard talked about the need to get more shots, citing improved conditioning to abet more constant off-ball movement and building more chemistry with his still-new-ish teammates. He sounded like someone ready to settle in, and the feeling seems to be mutual.
Is there a chance Kennard gets dealt this summer? The Grizzlies have so few mid-to-large fungible contracts that if a truly big deal materializes that needs a lot of matching salary, Kennard could get included. But it seems likely Jones will be the team’s first choice in that type of situation.
The Grizzlies seem primed to lean into more shooting next season, and Kennard is key to that.
4. Steven Adams
Age: 30
Contract status next season: $12.6 million in the first season of a two-year extension
As good as Adams was in his debut Grizzlies campaign last season, he was even better this time around, as long as it lasted.
Adams’ great rebounding was even greater. Instead of rounding into shape defensively, as he had the year before, he was good from the get-go. His finishing was better.
Free throws? Let’s not.
Unfortunately, he was sidelined in late spring with a knee sprain that’s still getting sorted out, with Kleiman expressing hope that Adams would be good to go in time for opening night next season.
Through two seasons for various reasons, Adams has played at least 10 minutes in only four of 18 Grizzlies playoff games. While it’s impossible to know for sure, it felt like he could have made a significant impact in the Lakers series.
Adams will begin a new two-year, $25 million contract this coming season. If fully healthy, he should be able to replicate his play in what will be his age 30 and 31 seasons. If so, it’s a good deal. But Adams’ return to full capacity after the knee injury will be a mystery until it isn’t.
3. Desmond Bane
Age: 25
Contract status next season: $3.8 million in the final season of his rookie-scale contract
In the final season of that rookie-scale contract as a former No. 30 overall pick, Bane will be one of the biggest bargains in the NBA next season. But that will soon change.
Bane and Kleiman both separately conveyed optimism about inking a new contract extension this summer. Expect that to be at least four years (potentially five) for north of $100 million, at a minimum.
Bane made it clear that discomfort from his November toe injury never went away, and both he and Kleiman left it open whether that would require some kind of procedure this summer. Expect that to be sorted out soon to keep Bane on track for the start of next season regardless of the plan.
Bane didn’t shoot the 3 well in the playoffs, but still put together back-to-back 30-plus point games in a near-win Game 4 and back-against-the-wall Game 5 win. Bane’s rebounding and playmaking both improved, the latter to the point that an every night true backup point guard may not be a necessity if Jones needs to be moved in a trade.
If he’s fully healthy, Bane could be in line for a huge season.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Age: 24
Contract status next season: $27.1 million with two more years left
Despite missing the first month of the season with a foot injury, it was a major breakout season from Jackson: Defensive Player of the Year, a first All-Star bid, rapidly accelerating growth as a scorer.
In year five, Jackson put together the components of his game like never before.
The playoffs?
More of a mixed bag.
In Game 1, the Lakers decided to single-cover Jackson primarily with James and backup forward Rui Hachimura, and Jackson feasted with 31 points.
After that, the Lakers gave him more attention, including from Davis, and while Jackson still scored in double digits every game, it was much harder. After Game 1, Jackson averaged 15 points on only 36% shooting from the floor and 23% from the 3-point line.
Still, amid wide concern about Jackson’s fouling, he averaged 37 minutes in the series with zero foul outs, and if his block numbers were down from the regular season, he still averaged three combined steals and blocks and the team’s defense was — of course — meaningfully better when he was on the floor.
Jackson made huge strides, but having a playoff series against a truly elite big man in peak form underscored that there’s more work to do. That Jackson can still get so much better after this kind of season is tantalizing.
Jackson talked about adding strength and explosion this summer, and fine-tuning his offensive game with more specific go-to scoring options in his arsenal. Yes, yes and yes.
This time, barring the unexpected, he’ll have a full summer to work.
1. Ja Morant
Age: 24
Contract status next season: An estimated $33.5 million in the first year of a five-year contract
The notable detour of Morant’s season isn’t worth regurgitating or relitigating here, except to say that while only time will tell, all indications so far are that he’s made positive adjustments.
On the court, it was more of a lateral season after last year’s Most Improved Player campaign. “Lateral” is fine when you’re an All-NBA-level player among the game’s top 20 talents, to be conservative.
But there is the sense that Morant isn’t done improving.
If he won’t get more explosive, there’s still time to fine-tune his skills and approach while his athletic prime holds.
Translation: The very best of Morant should still be yet to come.
This season, Morant’s shooting regressed, but he boosted his playmaking and, to my eyes at least, tightened up his defense a little bit.
He’s a great player. He probably needs to improve his shooting — from 3-point range and mid-range — to be the kind of pure point guard who can carry his team deep into the playoffs consistently. There’s still time.
On Sunday, Morant seemed like a guy who needs a vacation, understandably. It’s exciting to think of what he could do going into next season if he comes back rested and ready.
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